A 1/2 game at a room I frequent

Reads
--------
UTG: young guy, fairly aggressive, seen him open with less than premium holdings in EP: ATo, KJo, QJo 55. liked to open large 15 and 17. Seemed to be up a bit in the session.

BTN: loose calling station. doesn't mind calling down bottom pair or a small under pair. In the past, I've seen him had folded to some large pot sized bets on the flop. Was up a lot in the session

Hero: tight image. up a bit.

Stacks:
UTG+1 200ish
BTN 450ish
Hero about 250

Preflop:
Hero is in BB with 99

UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to 17, folds to BTN tanks and calls, SB folds, Hero calls (thought about 3 betting). ($52)

Flop
753

Hero checks, UTG+1 leads for $45, BTN calls, hero raises to $125.

I figured I could easily be ahead on the flop, UTG could easily have over cards, and BTN any piece of the flop. I don't really think I can just call here, right? Any face card probably wouldn't be good news. Thoughts?

I think it depends on if you've seen UTG make pot-size c-bets with air. If yes, just go all-in here instead of betting 125, but most players don't put in almost 1/3 of their stack on a bluff. BTN doesn't sound like anything to worry about.

This is read dependant; You are ahead of some of UTG+1's range. I wouldn't be too worried about BTN as he just adds dead money to our c/raise most the time.

This is an all in or fold situation. I would base my decision heavier towards if villain cbets big with air or not in the past and betting patterns, as well as body language. I've noticed certain villains have overpair tells and b/s cbet tells from plaing live.

I was just thinking about how bad a c/raise would be if villain had an overpair. However, does out c/raise actually get 1010 or JJ to fold ever? As played, our message is we have a made hand and are committing ourselves after we raise the flop.

Id rather call this, and reevaluate on the turn...any overpair/set isn't going away and will lick their lips...that said its a pretty hefty bet on the flop into TWO people

a second one of those on the turn (unimproved) and i muck.

Lead flop

Lead flop, fold to a rr. ~60% chance one of them has an overpair here bigger than yours with the flop ~pot bet and call.

How much has villain been raising in EP?

I would lead 1/2 to 2/3 pot and see what he does.

Are we folding to a shove since we have over half our stack in already?

I like leading flop for about 28 and folding to a rr.

If turn goes to hu, i'd block-lead again small regardless of the card.

I like setting my own price, pot controlling, and being the aggressor here rather than c/cing a large flop bet and planning to fold turn unimproved.

I kind of feel that if we were prepared to check raise this spot OTF a better line out of position would have been to 3 bet/fold PF and if called open shove a flop like this. This feels a little spewy but if villain has been opening up front with lots of junk I think it's fine.

Since it's multiway and button has a little more I think I like flatting though and assuming this villain has a high c-bet frequency, most of the time I would probably donk this flop for 2/3 potish.

*grunch*

UTG+1(V1) probably has the range you put him on, but you're gonna have to double barrel if you call. Half your stack is in OTF, so it's probably all going in, but idk what you'd do if a J+ falls OTT(I'd bet/fold). BUT(V2) is a bit worrisome, because if he folds to big bets but called this Flop bet, he must have at least a 7 (I'm thinking a small pocket pair.)

I just wanna know how V1 plays overs on a small board, over pairs, and sets. If you're trying to take it down, I think the C/R is fine, but if you get raised or called, it's a ship or bet/fold. V2 I'm not worried about, but if he raises after you C/R and V1 calls, I'm folding.

I agree with cAmmAndo about donk betting as a different line, then double barrelling the turn.

Leading the flop is probably best against this type because he makes it 17 regardless and the pot is already bigger than normal 3 ways. The fact that the other villain is a fish helps since if he calls we still get value out of worse hands assuming original raiser goes away. Plus we get away cheaply on a marginal situation so its a win-win for value and getting out cheap.

donking out usually sucks but this is a good example of when to do so

If the villain is as wide as you claim him to be, i m 3betting pre all day... I jsut feel like in live cash, people usually have something from ep raise...?

Results?

It's not a terrible move, but I probably wouldn't go for it. His range doesn't have that many hands that's ahead of yours, and you're happy to take it down here, since as you said your hand is pretty vulnerable. The problem is if he shoves, or they both call. Then you're committed and stacking off with one pair. Just not a situation I want to find myself in.

*Grunch*

This should be a shove if you think your good here. I'm rather confident you have the btn beat, and if your read UTG+1 does this with AT+, 55+ then your in good shape with your fold equity even if you are beat. With your tight image he may lay down over pairs to you here, a strong check raise on a dry board and the squeeze on him. Very tough for him to call with TT-KK if he even has it.

betting 125 here is a mistake that leaves u with around 130 left playing a nearly $400 dollar pot oop to the turn. Are you folding to a raise?

At this point your option is shove or fold. pretty simple. Should have squeezed with 3bet preflop to 75. Then if your raised u let it go, if your called and this flop comes its an easy shove.

That's a fairly substantial flop bet by Villain...could be protecting 88 or some random 7...but that's really all you beat. You'd expect a c-bet to be in the $30 range. The button calling, on that dry of a board and how you've described him, would be exactly what he'd do with a set, no? You said he'd fold to big bets.

Yucky spot. If you call, I think Villain has to check behind with most of his range unless he improves - unless he's a complete donk.

If I CR this flop bet, I'm making it bigger - $160~ or so. As played, there is $245 in the pot and you're pricing them in with all but air - they only have to call $80 more each.

Of course, if you're planning on folding to a 4-bet, then maybe you're saving yourself some money.

But the raise is basically a bluff and will only get worse hands to fold. But any raise is pretty much committing yourself, isn't it?

Having read the other replies now, I agree that donk betting the flop might be the best play.

I guess i'd want to know what UTG+1's c-betting tendencies were.

Also, i wonder why you raise to $125? Were you planning to fold if anyone shoved? You priced in the straight draws with the raise. I think the play is to shove. And, i don't like calling either. Also, given your description of villains, i think folding is also a mistake.

I also think OOP you probably should have 3 bet preflop.

Oh, and grunch.

I was going to grunch this one but realized that villain's cbetting tendencies are really really important here so I didn't. (cool story right?)

If OP could give us any info on UTG's cb range it would be a crucial part of our decision.

Pre: I see no reason to 3bet w/ 99 and narrow his range to hands that are beating us. Sure we have fold equity but I think we're losing some value by 3betting (cause we're 3b/f right?) + we don't want to have the calling station fold. Against his opening range we have ~52 equity and I'm guessing that his calling range is narrower.

OTF: If you x/r here you should just be shoving considering stack sizes.


Now let's see if x/r is good. There's a lot of variables but for simplicity's sake we'll make some assumptions that may or may not be true:

For now, let's ignore the BTN (we'll just say that the calling station has a marginal hand that is folding to our x/shove, although Dom made a good point that OP mentioned that the CS has folded to big bets in the past and this cb is fairly big in relation to pot size but maybe OP meant the CS only folded to bets that were large in absolute not relative terms? fish often think this way. Again further clarification by OP would be great here).

Let's assume that villain is cbetting 100% of his opening range here. .

Let's assume that villain's EP opening range is 55+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,ATo+,KJo+,QJo (As OP stated)

Let's also assume that villain is only calling our x/shove w/ 55, and 77+.

And we'll assume that UTG's stack preflop was exactly 100bb's.

With those assumptions:

142 (.68) + (1- .68) (280 * .23 - 148 * .77)
95.56 + (.32) (64.4 - 113.96)
95.56 + (.32) (-49.56)
95.56 - 15.86
= 79.70

So if all of those assumptions were true shoving shows an EV of +$79.70

(Again if somebody could make sure I'm doing all this correctly I'd appreciate it. I realized today that I haven't really been studying poker seriously or doing calculations and **** like that very often since BF so I'm trying to be more studious.)

Now if the calling station on the BTN is just stationing away with hands that we beat and would call our shove then it's an even better shove obviously. If it's likely that the CS is trapping with monster than it obv makes x/shoving worse.

UTG's calling range is also debatable (and depends somewhat on how he views hero). Is he calling w/ 88? Is he folding TT or any OP fearing a set or a straight?

And the biggest question is: What is UTG's CB range? I'm not sure that he's cbetting that big on that flop into two players with KJo for example.

I guess leading could be a lower variance option, how much are you leading for here?

Also, If he's open light ATo, KJo, QJo from EP, then is there really a 60% chance he's going to have an over pair?

CBet frequency was quite high. I had the suspicion that was barrelling with out any real hand in a few previous spots I wasn't involved in.

I would actually prefer folding in this position for a variety of reasons. One, for you to be ahead right now in the hand two things have to both be occurring: 1) UTG +1 must have 2 unpaired over cards to the flop. Based on your initial statement this could be true. 2) Button must have something worse than your nines. If you have the button pegged as a calling station type I would believe that at a minimum he probably has a hand like 7-6 that would give him a pair and straight draw. I would find it difficult to believe they would be floating knowing the pot is 3-way and you called OOP.

I just think over the long haul it is a smarter and safer play to fold. You are OOP against 2 players that really could have anything on a board that doesnt play well against your 99. Also, by staying out of harm's way in this hand you will probably get to see the holdings of the 2 players that could give you stronger information on a later hand when you may be heads up or at a minimum, in position. While I may get flamed for this position I believe the smarter and more profitable play is to fold and wait for a better spot.