Quote:
Originally Posted by Zenith EV
Pre: I'm not super excited to set mine but think I'm getting the right price plus I have absolute position and great relative position.
Flop: UTG should continue with his strong aces so once he checks I'm putting him on 88-QQ, KQ, slow played AA/KK/AK, and maybe raggedy suited aces and suited broadways. If anyone else has a strong ace I expect to see a bet from them. After calling flop, UTG still has the nutted part of his range along with weak aces, KQ, stubborn QQ/JJ, and suited broadways that have a gutter + bdfd.
Turn: I check back because the J gives UTG an even wider nutted range and adds a ton of equity to the rest of his range.
River: Since I showed disinterest on the turn, I expect UTG to bet most of his nutted range here. Once he checks, his range has a small portion of nutted hands but consists mainly of hands capped at top pair weak kicker. I feel like he might call a reasonable bet with these hands out of frustration or curiosity, especially after I showed weakness on the turn. However, I don't think he is able to call a pot sized shove since it puts him to a decision for all of his chips and also carries a hefty absolute sizing that he isn't used to calling with TPWK or worse.
This answer tells me one of two things:
(1) You have MUCH deeper reads on his betting pattern than you are giving in the OP. Congrats on exploiting the reads, but you'll get better conversation from the board if you take the time to type them up.
(2) You have WAY too much faith that opponent approaches the game the same way you do. And the reason you're getting a lot of flack from previous commenters is because that's the way it appears from the brief post.
I don't mind you taking a stab on the flop. You may have the best hand, you do have the best position, and your bet can easily force 88-QQ to fold.
But once the PFR calls with multiple players still to act, we should adjust our expectations. He most likely either (a) has AA/KK/AK here and is thinking "ZOMG I MUST SLOWPLAY THIS GREAT HAND or (b) has QQ/JJ/1010 here and doesn't have a fold button.
Checking behind on the turn is the right choice. But it also removes basically any chance that he'll fold QQ/JJ/1010 on the river.
Once he checks the river, we now think that he probably has QQ/JJ/1010. But if he couldn't fold it to the scary overcards on the flop, why do we expect him to fold it now?
Your bet sizing is particularly bad on the river, because his river calling range is going to be pretty inelastic. He's either calling because "EFF YOU I HAD QUEEEEEEEENS" or he's folding because queens are ace-magnets. So he's about as likely to fold for $50 as he is for $120, but $50 more effectively tells the story "okay, yeah, my suited ace must be good" while also risking less of your stack for the same reward.