[1/2] simple value-bet on turn?
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 650
MP: older guy. seen limp calling with things like KJs, JTo, QTo. and check calling down with middle pair + gutshot (even calling river bets when missed).
Hero: mid-aged (but looks great for his age). playing very tight. 3bet twice in two hours.. both out of BB. once with AKo vs. a young/aggro CO opener. once with AJo vs. a young/aggro BTN opener and the old/loose MP villain caller. both won w/o flop. other than that, i haven't played any hands outside of a couple of low pocket pairs and 98s limped on BTN that didn't hit. card dead.
effective stacks: $200
Pre-flop: utg limps, MP limps, hero KcKd raises to $12, utg calls, MP calls
Flop ($35 after rake): Qh 9h 4s. check, check, hero bets $22, only MP calls
Turn ($78): 6h. MP checks, hero...
is this an easy value-bet spot? fold if raised? thanks.
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 2,741
Yeah like 38. River is interesting
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,844
more preflop. I'd go $16.
As played, I bet/fold $35-40.
If he calls, I probably bet like 1/4 pot on non heart, non Q,T,J,A rivers, check back everything else.
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 201
Given Villain's range preflop (about 25% I guess), and his flop call (I assume any pair of 9 or better, any FD/OESD), your equity on this turn is still about 65% despite the flush card.
The question is do you have enough value to justify a bet OTT...
Now, he will probably call you only with a pair of Q or better which is still a decent part of his range though (hands that he will call that you beat represent about 35% of his range).
We also have to take in consideration that when you bet you can make him fold a lot of hands with one heart that all have a decent equity against your hand.
We also have to anticipate that if you call and he checkrases, you have to fold against this type of opponent (likeky passive)
All in all, it seems very close to me, and it's certainly not a "simple value bet"...
If you are confident he will always call with any Q even a hand like Q8s or TT/JJ, then it's a bet.
If you are not sure then you check.
If he bets OTR you'll call him, unless he makes a very big bet I guess.
If he check/call OTT then check OTR, you can bet but make sure to bet small enough to get calls from weak hands (1/4 - 1/3 pot sounds good to me)
Last edited by Zarathoustra; 03-13-2014 at 01:53 PM.
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 10,468
Definitely value bet. $50/fold. Lots of value from Qx, 9x, JT, etc.
If he c/c, you'll be value betting the river a lot of the time, as well.
If he c/c and leads rivers with any reasonable bet size, fold.
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 530
Personally I think this is about as simple of a valuebet as you will find on this kind of board, based purely on the description of villain.
You can easily bet $35-40 and literally be almost 100% certain that any time you get c/c you are good and c/r you are behind.
The beauty about playing droolers like this is that you can also easily bet about half of the deck if you are again checked to a third time.
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 4,551
I'm betting closer to 30 on the flop.
As played, I'd probably bet 55 on the turn and fold to a raise.
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 2,326
At a minimum, need to bet to protect our hand which is generally good here but still quite vulnerable. If we had Kh I'd be more open to checking back.
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 7,462
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 217
be more pre flop, v bet turn and small v bet on river, if he leads out on river you're probably beat