Villain (EP): 40s white man; no reads since hero just sat down ($300)
Hero (HJ): mid 20s asian man; just sat down ($250)

Villain limps in EP and hero makes it $14 in the HJ with J9. Folded back to villain who calls.

Flop: K84 ($31)

Villain donks $30. Hero calls. I know this is a loose call but given the "trap mentality" most 1/2 players have I think villain is much more likely to x/c flop x/r turn or just x/r flop with monsters. Plus I got a flush draw with a backdoor straight and can bluff many turns if checked to or villain bets small.

Turn: 7 ($86)

Villain bets $30 again. Bingo! This has to be one of those "well-timed aggression" spots right? Villain's bet reeks of weakness cause of the sizing and board texture. No way he's betting that small with a set or two pair. I've got good pot equity and fold equity here imo so should I raise to $100?

Dont raise light in 1/2 vs unkown villians. This isnt exactly a scared card to any thinking villian since 65 isnt really in your range. What sucks about this spot is that you dont know if villian is a station which isnt folding often or a thinking player who isnt folding often. Imo I wouldnt bluff here but I also wouldnt be in this spot with such a weak hand heads up. If I raise anywhere in this pot its on the flop. Live donks are somewhat polarizing to middle pair or two pair+.

I like a raise here. You aren't repping the set. You're repping a delayed raise with AK+. And his blocking bet on the turn is likely because that's what he's afraid of.

I would raise $100 on top in this spot. That leaves you with only about $100 more, but it also convincingly sells that he is gonna have to double you up to find out if his TPGK as any good.

I expect him to fold most of the time, and to reraise with his sets and slowplayed AKs. We might occasionally get called by Axhh or Qxhh, so I'm firing blank rivers as an insurance policy as well.

If he calls both barrels with top pair, then I make a mental note to valuetown the guy and I start making plans for how to exploit my suddenly-wild table image.

You need about 2.75-1 here assuming 12 clean outs. You're currently being offered slightly better than 4-1. This is an almost guaranteed profitable situation to just call. So call.

If we knew anything at all about Villain this spot could be great for a semi-bluff. But we have zero info about him except that he's playing 1/2nl and, therefore, likely has trouble laying down hands.

I don't think you are repping much on turn. I probably call and be happy it was cheap.

FWIW, I would have raised flop before turn.

on which turns did u plan bluffing, assuming he checked OTT ?

The reason I don't like to raise the turn is that the river is setting up so beautifully. Almost half the deck is setting up to be outs or good bluff cards.

I'd prefer to go to the river with lots of money behind to take advantage of the situation.

I agree with this. Raising 70 here and only leaving 100 for the river might make him feel priced in on both streets.

I prefer either a turn call or a much bigger turn raise.

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PF: Not a fan of raising here with J9s in the HJ after a limper. Not saying you can't play it profitably, but I don't like it. I guess it matters who's in the CO and the BTN. Are we trying to isolate?

F: Oh the donk bet. Not only a donk bet, but he donks pot! Well, we played J9s and flopped a flush draw. I guess if we aren't comfortable playing a J-high flush draw IP, then we shouldn't be raising with it? I'm fine with the call. Probably the worse thing you could do is fold, because why are folding if you chose to play J9s.

T: So V bets $30 into $86. Just seems so weak! The 7 gives you 4 additional outs. Pot is $116 and you've got $206 left. What about the villain says anything? He's 40s and white....so...well that doesn't tell us much. What does he have that donks pot on the flop and then fires 1/3P on the turn? Honestly, I really don't know what he has, but the only thing to me that makes sense is a Ace high flush draw. Something like AQhh. It seams that sets or two pairs would bet more on the turn to "protect" their hand.

Man, thinking about this. I really just want to shove. Those should get him to fold KQ, KJ, AQhh.

Edit: Naked brings up a good point. We have 12 outs so we've got a 24% chance of hitting on the river. He's giving us 3.9:1 or 20% pot odds. So we've got the direct odds to call here (assuming our flush outs are good). Probably best to call, unless we can put him on AQhh which of course we can't narrow his range down that specifically.

I planned on bluffing pretty much any turn that doesn't pair the board. au4all brings up a good point that there are many scare cards on the river that we can bluff. But many of those scare cards is when we hit our flush, otherwise the only real scare card is an A and maybe a 6. We're either gonna have to bet when checked to or raise and count on him to give up Kx. I think by raising the turn we give him two chances to fold instead of one and also caps his range further than he already has by betting so small as long as he doesn't shove. If he calls then x/f the river we just created a lot of dead money or if he calls and we hit on the river that's also good obviously.

OTT, it's profitable to just call based on the pot odds and implied odds are great. If the straight comes in, you might stack V and if the flush comes, should be able to at least get some value. Semi bluffing might win the pot now but that's a much higher variance play and depending on Vs range and hands, how sticky he is, etc (stuff we don't know bc no reads), that might turn a clear pos expectation into a negative one. I'd flat, lose the min, win the max.

I just hated the idea of what looks like a great semi-bluff spot vs a weak range go to waste and play the hand passively since it could lead to giving up the river if it bricks. Anyways I raised to $100. Villain tanks for a long time and calls.

River: 3 ($286)

Villain checks. I have just over $100 behind and shoving gives villain 3.5-1. But I think there's enough fold equity to shove is there not? I didn't raise turn to shut down on the river. And it only needs to work < 30% of the time

Shove is the only way you'll win, but good luck.

If he tank calla turn for $70 there is no way he folds river for $100. If he did you should count your blessings because this hand was butchered.

grunch: raise (based on your read)

however, more times than not when i do this i end up getting called down light and regret it. especially in florida where i am now. i pretty much rate my fold equity close to nill in almost every hand now. if i don't have good pot or implied odds, i'm not chasing.

if this hand were to occur against a regular 1-2 player, even i thought he were weak, i'd call, especially as you have position. if you miss, shut down. if you hit, raise big on the river.

but go with your read. if you think you have fold equity, use it.

I don't mind raising with J9s in HJ at a tight-passive table. I wouldn't do this when I just sat down with no reads.

Villains lead on the flop most likely means KQ or worse K. I'd call with a flush draw too. On the turn, villains same bet size is super weak. You have a ton of outs and should try to take it. I think $100 is way to small a raise. Villains gets about 3-to-1 odds and we know how hard it is to get low stakes players off top pair. Commit to the raise and make it $150+. Probably just shove because it's only slightly bigger than a PSB.

KQ/KJ is never folding here. Wouldn't you raise AK on the flop ?. any decent player is going to snap you if you raise. you are repping nothing, may be a picked up equity with a club draw. If i am the villain, i am putting you all in to any of your raise. Your age is also a factor.

I wouldn't. It almost turns AK into a bluff especially after he donks pot. If he comes over the top I'm fcked. Even if he calls I'll have to worry about two pairs and sets since I just isolated the top of his range.