Villian 500 active, limping wide range.
Hero TAG 400

UTG limps, Vil limps CO, Button, SB, and I check option with 44

Flop A-3-4 rainbow,

SB checks, Hero leads $12, Vil calls rest fold.

Pot: 35
Turn A-3-4-Q rainbow

Hero bets 27, Vil calls

Pot: 90
River: A-3-4-Q-8

Hero bets 60, Vil minraises to 125, Hero?

Pot is like 270, Hero has like 300 left, It is quite possible Vil slowplayed the wheel, 33, or has A8 AQ. I'd hate to reraise and get owned by the wheel, but also hate to lose value from a set. Is this a raise/fold, raise/call, or call.

Many more combos of A8/Aq/33 than 25 as id only include the suited combos.
We should prob include a combo of AA/QQ too (& possible slowplayed flopped 2pr)I don't expect a Rec 1/2 player to fold any of those and we need him to call with 50%+ hands we beat so without counting combos to be sure I'm pretty sure I'm shipping this river.

Bet bigger otr (i go $100 i think) IMO his hand at this point reeks of Ax and he's never folding it (edit before his river raise , obv he has 2pr+ at that point)

I raise and have no intention of folding here.

Are you really worried about V limping 52 in EP? He is more likely to be slowplaying 33. I think we can safely eliminate AA,QQ and 88 from his range so we basically have the nuts here.

I find it odd he wouldnt raise turn with 2 pair or a set though, based on combinations its a clear raise, but 1/2 players love to slowplay and usually dont raise rivers without what they percieve to be the nuts. He either has 33 or 52 imo. Im under impression he raises turn or flop with a set so I thought there was a good chance he had the wheel.

I think you have MUBS

Flatting seems okay here. Even if it's +EV to shove, it's not that much a +EV shove (like maybe max 6% +EV and then you're taking on a huge variance swing if he does have AA/QQ/52 maybe 88).


Board: Ac 3d 4h Qs 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.000% 50.00% 00.00% 48 0.00 { 44 }
Hand 1: 50.000% 50.00% 00.00% 48 0.00 { A8s, 52s, AQo, A8o, 52o }


---

102 games 0.000 secs 20,400 games/sec

Board: Ac 3d 4h Qs 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.941% 52.94% 00.00% 54 0.00 { 44 }
Hand 1: 47.059% 47.06% 00.00% 48 0.00 { AQs, A8s, 52s, AQo, A8o, 52o }


---

111 games 0.000 secs 22,200 games/sec

Board: Ac 3d 4h Qs 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.757% 56.76% 00.00% 63 0.00 { 44 }
Hand 1: 43.243% 43.24% 00.00% 48 0.00 { 33, AQs, A8s, 52s, AQo, A8o, 52o }


---

120 games 0.000 secs 24,000 games/sec

Board: Ac 3d 4h Qs 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.500% 52.50% 00.00% 63 0.00 { 44 }
Hand 1: 47.500% 47.50% 00.00% 57 0.00 { 88, 33, AQs, A8s, 52s, AQo, A8o, 52o }


---

138 games 0.000 secs 27,600 games/sec

Board: Ac 3d 4h Qs 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.652% 45.65% 00.00% 63 0.00 { 44 }
Hand 1: 54.348% 54.35% 00.00% 75 0.00 { AA, QQ, 88, 33, AQs, A8s, 52s, AQo, A8o, 52o }

I don't believe this is a good spot for a raise fold. I think you can either call or reraise allin. If you ship will villian call with hands that you beat like 33 or AQ? Maybe. I doubt you get called by A8 if you reraise here. granted there aren't a lot of combos of 52 that villian has here, some do limp in 52s here rarely 52o. Does this villian limp in AA or QQ? Some do and this adds more combos that you are losing to that will probably call river.

I think I just call here recognizing that I am usually ahead of his raising range but not necessarily his reraise calling range.

If villian is total calling station fish this changes to an easy ship and then moan when he turns over 52 or fist pump when he calls A8o or AK.

Don't be MUBSy. What is the decision here exactly?

Villain doesn't have 52 much. He wasn't a blind. Even "I want to see hands" players are folding 52 a lot. If he does have it, nice for him. Villain doesn't have AA or QQ if you have ever seen him raise (which it would be nice to know that!). Villain didn't call 2 streets with 88 with A and Q on board.

Villain has 33, A8, A4 a ton.

You have to raise/call here. You are levelling yourself. He has good 2 pair or a set of 3s so, so often compared to 52.

It would be very helpful to know if Villain has a "raising range" in addition to a "limping range" as that eliminates AA and QQ (two of the 4 hands that beat you).

Absent reads I'm raise calling always here.

Your hand ranges are horrifically unrealistic. 88? AA? QQ? 52?

We need real reads to put Vs on those hands. This is 33, A8, A4 very often.

^^ OK


Board: Ac 3d 4h Qs 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.000% 60.00% 00.00% 72 0.00 { 44 }
Hand 1: 40.000% 40.00% 00.00% 48 0.00 { 33, A8s, A4s-A3s, 52s, A8o, A4o-A3o, 52o }


Congrats on 10%+EV Equity for 300$.

Remove 52 off, add something random like AT for air, and I think you're about right. It's over 2/1.

lol easiest jam ever. lose to 88 and a lolslowplayed 52s. more likely he has aces up than anything else.


but yeah. if you're scared. just call. but i'm shipping it and reloading if he somehow has us beat. profit.