1/2 game in Cleveland Horseshoe.

Villain is a 20-something loudmouth, been playing all night (it's about 11am), perhaps still drunk from the night before. Limps too much, no regard for position. My other read is that his bet sizing is always on the large size, even when it's not obvious if he's bluffing or value betting.

I raise to $13 with JJ from EP. My image is tight bordering on nitty. Villain doubles it to $26 from the blinds. It's the first three bet I've seen from him. We are both over 150BB deep, I flat.

Board is 9 high, 2 clubs. Villain checks. My read of his range is pretty standard for a 3bet: QQ+ and then maybe AK, but I'm unsure of AK. He hasn't been particularly aggro preflop, so I don't have any reason to believe this is some kind of move.

I check the flop behind.

Turn is another low card, not a club. Villain now bets $45 into $52. This is where my brain starts flip-flopping back and forth. One the one hand, this absolutely looks like AK. On the other hand, 1) I'm not 100% sure he would 3bet AK, 2) putting people on AK is always everyone's default "read", and 3) his larger bet into a 3bet pot starts off the warning messages that we're building a big pot with one pair and 4) OMG what if his plan was to checkraise with AA on the flop?

How to keep the conflicting information sorted out?

Bet the flop and fold to a raise.. Or check behind on turn if he calls.. Whats the reasoning for your flop check?

Call turn. Call river.

Not sure how you're "going broke".

Never checking the flop here..bet/fold flop...when u dont bet flop, u put yourself in this position to where u have no idea where you're at in the hand. As played, just fold and wait on a better spot considering it looks like you mostly put V on QQ+ anyways and "maybe" AK...

V probably does have AK here....could have any two cards really, but since you checked back flop after the preflop action it looks like you didnt connect, which V takes for weakness and leads turn thinking his AK is still good...makes you want to call and evaluate river...which ends up burning more money when the river is another blank, V fires big and we have to fold or level ourselves into calling like we did on the turn....all could be prevented by betting flop..

Fold pre. Why?

"It's the first three bet I've seen from him." ---> JJ is in tough shape.

And, because you got the 2nd best flop you could possibly ask for and it still is a tough situation.

Finally, we're definitely not deep enough to have much room to maneuver post flop, and we're just barely deep enough to set mine.

~~

As played, b/f flop $35. If villain flats your flop bet, c/f turn and evaluate river, most likely b/f if checked to.

I agree with alot of what Lapidator says...but i dont think i ever fold this pre for another $13...especially against this V....who we're likely stacking on a J high board with his QQ,KK, or AA

lol @ folding pre for $13 more in a 150bb+ stack deep pot

What is Villain's 3B range here?

The stronger Villain's 3B range is, the more you should be calling for such a cheap price to set mine. If V only has QQ-AA, then you will get paid off for sure if you hit your set. easy call pre, 150 BB deep

Believe me, I fold pre to 3bets more than just about anyone I know. I didn't fold pre this time because:

1) we're deep
2) it's a minraise.
3) because screw that guy, I've got jacks.

LOL... I suffer from this too.

Don't get me wrong, I agree we're deep enough to set mine. Theoretically we only need to win another $150 when we flop a set of jacks.

150bb deep is a difficult stack size for me generally, so between about 125bb and 175bb I tend to fold pre to 3B more frequently. But TBH, most 3B I see are in the $50 range, and calling the extra $38 (normal PFR is $12) hurts too much, when I can just push around the non-aggressive fish most of the time.