Little info before I get to the hand: You know how players on this forum post hands like flopping two pair or a set? Well, I almost NEVER make those hands. Maybe once in every 24 hours of playing. If I sit there and wait for a hand like that, I'll probably lose a buyin or two to the blinds alone (and that's not an exaggeration). Instead I need to push every edge I can. I thought this spot was a +EV flop and turn bet, but what do you guys think?

In the last 48 hours of play, I've had 3 sets, flopped two pair maybe 3 times, and had zero flushes and zero boats. Somehow I've managed to be about break even, because I push edges like this one.

Reads: SB is really loose, kinda aggro. Other villain is pretty new, seems a bit loose but decent. I probably have a clean, good TAG image.

Stacks: I have $155. Villains cover.

Preflop I raise UTG 7 handed with 98 to $9. So this is the same as middle position basically. I'd sometimes fold this hand preflop. I thought this situation was good because I hadn't seen a 3-bet at the table in like 2 hours.

Four callers, pot is $45. Flop comes J75. I bet $25. I rep a pretty big hand here, overpair or AJ, because I'm betting into so many people.

Button and SB call. Turn is 8. SB checks, I go all in. Thoughts? I thought I had enough FE to get button off QJ or J10. Also I thought I made the best hand a decent % of the time on this turn. Either could have like A7 or 86, or a flush draw. Not to mention 1010 is almost sure to fold to a turn shove.

I like it a lot. Theres now 120ish in the pot and about that left in our stack. I cant see folding doublegutted with middle pair at this point anyways and I think we get all lone jacks to fold here so a shove is the move. CRAI on flop isnt bad either because of your stack.

On the flop, just because betting into 4 players appears strong. Doesn't mean your opponents are going to care. A lot of them play their hand strength alone, and this is the type of boards texture, that hits a lot of your opponents likely holdings. I think your assigned ranges are overly optimistic as well and I think you overestimate your fold equity vs the field on the turn.

Also wanted to add,

No it isn't the same as middle position.

Raise to 9? Are you wanting to punish the dealer for giving you a bad beat? A raise like that is really weird live.

Note to self: If I don't like the dealer I'm going to raise to 11 and everyone will call with 3 reds and he is going to have to make change multiple times. Dealers hate that.

As to your hand, I would make a psb on the flop. Or fold. The more experienced can correct me here but this is not really a semi bluff since you are drawing thin. IMO you are betting with nothing so at least make it look good.

Please explain how this isn't the EXACT same thing as middle position? And on the flop, this isn't actually a really great draw. Even though we've got 8 outs...so I thought about betting kinda smallish or c/calling a smallish bet.

Also, a bit more info on the table: It was a pretty tight table postflop. Very few pots over $150 in the past few hours. I had seen top pair folded several times faceup. It was kinda loose preflop though.

Stopped reading here

Sorry, just had to whine a bit. I just finished another losing session today, I think my fourth in a row. It's just so shocking how easily these other players make hands like sets or two pair, like its nothing. I get beat all day by guys who call my raises with 97o and just hit these 1/100 shots on the flop like its nothing.

Seriously though, do you guys ever play 48 hours making 3 sets, two pair once, and zero flushes or full houses?

OP, I'm sorry to say this, but I feel like not lying is better than going along with you. You aren't unluckier than others. Nope, you aren't. Still think you are? No sir. Yea even that time your aces lost to 45s, still not unluckier than me or anyone. Shake the notion. You will not be a winning player thinking that your luck is a major deciding factor in your winning over a very long time.

Pushing edges is obviously good, you don't need to do it anymore than I need to do it. Taking edges is huge. Knowing when to do it, and how great the edge is, are huge.

And you being UTG (regardless of the number of players at the table) is still EP, not middle position because you want it to be.

You seem unfamiliar with basic concepts. Your feelings towards what cards will come (or don't come for you apparently) has no impact on the fact that there are 52 cards and they come randomly. Seats at a table are not negotiable either.

I'll let you in on a little fact. We are 1 person out of 9 at a table. So "these other players" are going to flop about 8 times (ballpark number) more sets/2pairs/straights than us. So if you stay at a table for 900 sets, all at random odds, you'd only have 100 vs. 800 for the rest of the table.

And you're not just whining, you're trying to rationalize your losing. It's probably you, not the cards.

i wish i could make 3 sets in 48 hours sick brag

Bo and AGTR, you guys saying that this isn't the same as being in MP proves you don't really know what you're talking about. There is literally no difference from me being UTG 7 handed and me being in MP and having the first two players fold. Zero difference, in each case I have exactly 6 players remaining and that's all that matters.

I suppose the only arguement you could possibly make is if its 9 handed, the first two players would fold ragged hands like 2 5o, making those cards slightly less likely in the hands of the remaining players...

You should only be raising pre to steal or balance. Otherwise, you're not deep enough. Limp or fold.

C/c otf.

I like jam ap.

Yeah, now that I think back on it, the turn bet is my best play for the whole hand I think. But does our FE combined w/ our 32% equity on the flop make for a +EV flop bet?

Depends, but I usually doubt it. This flop could even be c/f sometimes.

Ok I'm going to make this simple for you. When you say "UTG 7handed = MP 9handed," that statement is not true. When you say "UTG 7handed has the same number of remaining players to act as MP1 after 2 folds at 9handed," that statement is correct. However, they are not the same. If you read what you said, you didn't say the 2nd of those two statements.

Also, you ignore that one of the differences in MP1 at 9handed is that we have position pre on UTG1 and UTG2 and postflop we have position on SB/BB/UTG1/UTG2. UTG at 7handed has NO position preflop and position on 2 players only post flop. While the number of remaining players is identical, we can't be making blanket statements regarding the importance of position based on how it suits us.

This is just wrong, because notice I said our position here is the same as 9 handed IF THE FIRST TWO PLAYERS FOLDED. C'mon now, this is common sense...Our situation is the exact same as if we are 9 handed and the first two players folded to us.

[x]Claiming UTG 7handed= MP 9handed
[]Mentioning UTG 7handed = MP 9handed AFTER two folds

Those are your words in quotes man, not mine. Perhaps you meant something different, but my comments are in reference to what you said, not what you think you meant.

Stack sizes???????????!!!!!!!!!!!?

Pre-flop raise is marginal but defendable. Don't like the cbet into so many players or the weak sizing. If we make our hand on the turn, we're going to have great implied odds and I don't want to be raised off it on this flop.

Depending on stacksizes I like the semi-bluff turn shove as long as we can get QJ and worse to fold. If they had a hand they were happy to commit with they should have raised the draw heavy flop.

BTW the reason why we should loosen our range e.g. 6 handed compared to 9 handed... has less to do with the fact that we have less players to get through and more to do with the fact that we're losing more money in blinds per hour.

Yeah now that I think about it more, I think with a $200 stack, this would have been a better play. This way, I could bet $100 on the turn and QJ and J10 would me much more likely to fold, because they won't want to put their stack in w/ just one pair.

And yeah, I think their calls show true weakness here, especially BB. No way he doesn't c/r w/ a set or two pair.

Results: They both folded, I almost doubled up without having to flip over my cards.

i like it.

UTG, MP, not same as, see why, do you?

I don't like the UTG open and I really hate leading out on the flop; leading out on the flop is horrendous.

As played, I like the shove on the turn.

Preflop - bad. Fold that from UTG/MP/anythingbutlateposition. With your stack size, raising 89s to 4.5BBs from UTG is a losing proposition. If you, and some others at the table, were much deeper, its fine, but you just arent deep enough to justify plyaing that hand from that position.

Flop - I dont really like the bet here, but, given that it looks like you were planning on running a bluff repping a big hand, I think its a fine play. Really, if I were executing the plan it looks like you were going for, I would have check raised. If you check, it gives you a multi-option, first, if you check and it checks around, fine, you get to look at the turn for free. If it doesnt check around, and you get one bet of $20-30 you can bump it to $75-$100. If you get a $20 bet and three calls, well you have to shift your plan a little bit, but still you get a chance to hit the nuts 2 different ways in a pot with lots of money in it. (Note, all these plans are hampered by the fact that you're out of position, but w/e)

Turn - As played, this was a good play. You are correct that you've possibly made the best hand and, even if not, you've still got outs. Although there is now a FD not involving the top card on the flop, so there is certainly a poss that someone now has TP+FD, which hampers things. But, that aside, turn play is pretty darn good.

As an aside, the whining about cards and the rationalizations for your actions with things like "well UTG 7handed is really akin to MP in a 9 handed game" are nonsense. Get over it. You raised 89 UTG, you dont need to drum up some rationaliztion for why you did it. Further, even if this rationalization were correct, which I frankly dont care about, its meaningless. There are perfectly good reasons to raise 89s UTG, but they have to do with things like balancing or, more importantly, table and player dynamics.

sorry, i dont like really at all.

Reasoning...

Turn hits villains range.

We really do not have a big enough shove to fold out enough hands to be profitable.

Our hand looks too much like a draw pushing it. At least that is what they always put us on.

It might depend on how much of villains ranges do NOT include Jx without raising on flop.

Yoda, what he is saying (i think) is that utg 7h is not same as MP 9h due to avg. hand value being stronger at the 9 handed table. Now in reality the difference I would say is so slight that it is not clinically significant.

I know myself from experience that playing a 9 handed game (once 3 have folded) with exact 6max strategy is within centimeters of being totally correct. The avg. hand values just are not that much stronger in the 9h game. Maybe adjust for a HALF a notch would make it identical. I have just not seen in practice any adjustment necessary at all other than the fact that 6 players from a 9 handed table do NOT play 6 handed like 6 players who play 6max routinely.

What MAY BE stronger in a 9h game is the players general feeling of how strong others hands are, and thus tighter play results.