100% agree with all but possibly JJ. When I went through this in my head, I gave her QQ+, AKs, and half the JJ combos. Against that range, but with my strong read that V1 has a hand that's in the low PP or SC range, we have about 31% equity in the main pot, assuming, for simplicity's sake that even the nit knows that she can never fold now.

I'm about 95% sure that no matter what comes, we can get V1 to shove, and we should have about 80% equity in the side. Assuming that this is correct,

If we call and V1 shoves the flop, we have an expected return from the main of 31% of $570, or $176.7, for a cost of $140 more into the main, for an EV of +$36.7 On the side we have a pot of $200, with an expected return of $160 for a cost of $100, giving us an overall EV of getting it in here of +$96.7.

The trouble with this theory is the range. If we give her only KK+, we only have 17.7% equity in the main. This makes the main-pot EV -$40. It still looks like a +EV play to me though, with $60 equity in the near-certain side, for an overall EV of +$20.

Am I missing something here? When I did this at the table, I actually thought I'd have a slight negative EV if she did have a KK+ range, but unless I screwed the math up, it looks like a clear case of get it in. Thoughts?

Well, I guess TTHRIC. I would still appreciate comments on the above EV calcs.

Results:

Garick, I'm replying because I saw your post in the chat thread. Your read/range assignment for V2 is internally inconsistent. If she is loose passive and a nitty raiser, your range assignment is way, way, way too wide. If she will raise the range you say she will raise, then she is not a loose passive player with a nitty raising range.

Standard play versus a nit in your spot is just to flat her initial raise. If you expect she will call your 3 bet with 100% of her raising range, then there's probably profit in 3 betting her, but I'd want to do some math before saying so conclusively.

Yeah, my initial thoughts on her range were giving too much credit to how upset she was with V1. dgiharris def had the thoughts on the range correct.

Any comments on the EV calcs, though? It seems like once I made the decision to 3-bet I was pretty much committed to the hand, even giving her a range of KK/AA only. That surprises me, so I thought perhaps I missed something in that calc.

I disagree with your assumptions about V1. I don't think we can get him to shove that often. I think he shuts down on Ace and king high flops, for example.

I'm pretty sure introducing an element if uncertainty as to what v1 will do makes this a fold.

Your assumption is that you are calling her raise to win both their stacks. I simply think that is too optimistic an assumption.

I just want to say our poker knowledge and skills is a double edged sword. On one side we can come up with convoluted mathematical reasons to make thin value calls (or raises/moves). On the other side we can use our knowledge to make tough folds. I think one of the hardest things is knowing which side of the sword to use and when.

One thing that helps me is to assign a range to my villian and say "does this particular player have it in them to make this play" or more importantly "have I seen this player make this play".

In OP's case, would this nit 4bet shove here with JJ AFTER we showed strength? And based on OP's description the answer is no. It's wishful thinking to say yes. Once we determine that V is never doing this w JJ then we can find a fold.

I could be wrong, but isnt this the time we just put EV calculations and ranges away and put villain on a hand. Basically what I'm saying is you can make up whatever mathematical problem you want, but who cares, its not relevant.

ya i see this as a fairly trivial fold given reads on v2 and the fact that she's 4betting us. it's pretty textbook KK+, the way she's more concerned about v1 sucking out than what hero might be up to.

why? obv if she only calls a 3bet with hands that beat us (KK+) it suggests we should flat, but what about the other players? according to OP there were 3 limpers, including v1, before v2's raise. wouldn't 3betting and hoping to get heads-up with v1 or one of the other limpers be more optimal than flatting from BB?

Easy AI pre