1/2, 6 handed, $300 eff, new table

Hero raises $15 UTG with QJs
V1 calls in UTG+1
V2 calls on BTN (middle aged Asian lady sitting with $400, straddled her last BTN is all I've seen)

Flop $45: QQ2r
Hero bets $20, V2 calls

Turn $85: 5r
Hero bets $40, V2 quickly raises to $100, Hero ?

your probably no good but I think this is a pretty hard fold.

I would fold unless i've seen her spew before. calling for info isn't terrible if you plan to rebuy and she doesn't leave

I'd call and check/fold the river

Yep, looks like AQ, KQ, or 22, possibly 55.

Only hand you beat on such a dry board is Q10.

Call, check/fold river.

If you're going to call, blocking bet/fold otr. People used to make 1 stab with a bluff or even with value hands they were SD monkeys and checked back a lot of rivers. Calling to c/f otr is burning $60, I would very rarely expect her to check back the river with her bluffs or her trips/boats. The blocking bet does combat the bluffs though, and if she's going nuts with a worse Qx, the blocking bet avoids her unknowingly turning her hand into a bluff.

I don't care if it's 6 max. It's not a llsnl thread without the timeless statement of fold pre.

That's not funny at all.

QJs is a standard raise though if he raises to 15 to fold out QT and all non-paired hands he's in a great deal of trouble post-flop.

The Hero is also likely to be unknowingly turning his hand into a bluff.

If the Hero is ahead 90% of the time on the flop, but only ahead 40% of the time his bets are called then he's bluffing.

What's missing from the OP is what worse hands does he think are calling 3-barrels? Does he thinks he's getting called by 99?

Board: Qc Qd 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.516% 25.57% 13.94% 9114 4969.50 { QJs }
Hand 1: 60.484% 46.54% 13.94% 16587 4969.50 { 22, AQs, KQs, QTs+, AQo, KQo, QTo+ }

There are reasons to bet with the best hand besides getting called by worse. Plenty of situations call for betting to get worse to fold. This hand is one of them. Say V will fold all pocket pairs TT and lower, TT-33. Why wouldn't you want to bet? You'd rather just check, let them hit their 2-outer ott and then get ai behind with your trips?

If
1) V has hands worse than yours 2) V isn't willing to put in any more money unimproved with those worse hands 3) Any improvement makes V's hands better than yours
Then
It's a situation to bet so worse folds.

Bart Hanson calls it the negative equity slowplay, I've always called it betting to get worse to fold, it's also a type of betting to protect your equity situation.

She's got a piece, but who can say how much?

If she has 22 or 55, she's shipping it in on the river, so you're calling $60 to win $400.

That leaves you 7 outs to improve, so the call is even money on your implied odds.

The next question is does she have QK+? If so, then you have 9 outs to a chop or better.

So now the question is, does QK+ raise the turn? Personally, I don't think so. It scares out most of your range. More likely she is raising Qwk for information or 22,55 for value.

Hero tank called turn and checked river.

V QUICKLY MOVES ALL-IN

El, 150 of our 300 stacks is already in. Which makes the pot 300. Blocker betting 50-75 on the river is what I considered too but V looked very confident when raising turn and seemed ready to ship so I figured I was just going to burn more money. And putting in 200-225 out of 300 in the middle to just fold seems outrageous.

Pre is obviously fine.

I would probably just fold to the turn raise.

As played, fold.

Maybe she's spewing, hopefully she'll show.

She's not betting if hero makes quad qs or the board counterfeits her full house with one of the low cards pairing. Definitely shes not betting with 22 on QQ55 and LLSNL players will sometimes check back 55 on QQ225 as well.

I'd call the turn and fold the river. You'll find that lesser queens will sometimes check back at the end scared. I don't like the idea of the blocker bet. If a J comes or the board pairs you have to bet yourself. Don't depend on people to due the value betting for you IP OTR.

66-JJ will call this turn for sure, sometimes AK and AJ depending on V and our image. Any overcard will be scary for the middle pairs and might not call a river bet if we check the turn.

You don't want to burn a $50 blocking bet otr but you're okay with doing it for $150?

I said you don't see the 1-time big bets anymore and she followed through with the river shove. The decision is ott, fold or call and c/c otr.

The "once you put in 40% of you stack be ready to call it all off" is more of a guideline for a beginner. I wouldn't use it as a strict rule, your judgement should be more important than the rule and there are times to commit more of your stack and fold and also times to have committed a small portion of your stack but be ready to get ai.

How many worse Qx hands are there?

So a small number of Qx combos that Hero is beating a portion of the time will check back a brick river. I wouldn't make a plan based on the smallest likelihood of events.

I'm also surprised how many people want to call & c/f river. What do we think V's range is? And what part of it do we think checks behind on blank rivers? We have to give her tons of QTo/Q9o combos (and assume she usually checks otr with them) for this to make any sense.

Crude combinatorics: Her range likely has all AQ/KQ/22 combos, and some 55. Let's say ~12 combos total that beat us. If she never bets with worse on the river (the ideal case), she needs to have >~4 combos we beat to make a call, c/f line profitable. If she bets her losing hands 1/2 of the time on the river, she needs to have >~10 combos we beat. I have a really hard time assigning her 10 weaker Qx combos. All QT plus half Q9 combos gets us to 6, and if we start adding worse Qxs, she also picks up two more FH combos.

imo, we have to make pretty optimistic assumptions for call, c/f to be profitable, though it looks closer than I thought at first.

I actually called turn too.

C/folded to her shove otr.

In retrospect, I should've folded ott.