Prehand Descriptions
Villain : A college-aged asian kid that I have never played with before. Have yet to see him get out of line

Hero: Most people at this game think I am pretty tight/somewhat solid player, however this is a new player so I am not sure what he thinks of me.

This is a private 1/2 game that generally plays very deep.

$1/2 NL (9 handed)
CO Villain ($900)
BTN Hero ($800)

Hero is dealt As Kh

Folds around, Villain opens to $10 on CO, Hero raises to $35 on BTN, Villain calls $35

Pretty standard 3 bet here. I elected for a smaller sizing in position

Flop ($73) 2s 2d Kd
Villain checks, Hero bets $25 Villain raises to $75, Hero calls $75

I c-bet small, hoping to keep in medium pocket pairs or maybe a weaker K. Not sure if this is a good plan, let me know? When hero raises, its hard to put him on any 2 other than an A2s type hand. Could be a semi-bluff with a flush draw? I think calling is OK here but let me know otherwise.

Turn ($223) 3s

Villain bets 120, Hero calls

I tanked before calling here thinking what could this 3s change. Diamond draw still a possibility, trips possible? If I call here, would i be willing to call a shove on river if a blank hits? Thoughts?

River ($463): 7s

Villain jams for my remaining $570. Hero?

Preflop fine

This is a dream flop for the 3bettor. You can go big here. 50 anyhow but you could even overbet with a lot of hands. Apart from A2s (maybe 22) you are close to the nuts at the moment. Small just misses value. Vs the CR you can 3bet although calling is OK.

You tanked before calling turn, I hope that wasn't because you were thinking about folding.

River is not a blank due to backdoor flush draw and on a board like this, there should be some BDFD check-raises... but there probably aren't. You might consider folding if you had a diamond. Without a diamond, call

KsXs is a possibility, but it wouldn't be AsKs since you have As, so not really something you would expect to see raise flop. Vs an unknown, I think we just call down as there are lots of draws villain could have missed. You do block things like As5s, As4s, that could bluff flop and barrel turn, and one combo A2s if he is that wide.

Once you called the flop and turn, does he really think a random unknown player will fold AK otr? The only duece in his range should be A2s and ducks pretty much so it's a horrible spot vs someone who doesn't get out of line (dunno how long we've seen him play so far). I'm leaning towards a fold, especially without seeing him bluff like that. If he bluffed, good for him, I usually don't like calling down 400 bb's with a pair anyway with no reads of him bluffing like that. Players should be making this bluff if they put their opponents on a weak range, but here you're range looks exactly like AK after you 3bet pre (btw sizing was fine), called a c/r otf and a hp turn bet, and he should know most people would call the river with AK so he's probably going for max value.

22 is also a possibility. KQss. KJss. K10ss. K9ss? Home game full of recs playing really deep, I would think he calls $25 a large majority of the time with all those hands. A2hh and A2cc as well. About 6 combos you lose to unless he got out of line completely with 33 or 77. Can you find enough AK, KQ and bluffs in his range? You only need about 4 combos. Tough spot vs a tight player.

Would he really bet a diamond draw 3 streets on a paired board? Is he more likely to keep bluffing after you turn tank?

He has so few combos of better value. 2x A2s and 1x 22. But it's hard to find bluffs or worse hands.

He has 6 AK but I don't think they all play this way. It's close but I lean fold

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I didn't think of KXss but those hands are very in-between and often won't check-raise. People just don't check-raise enough backdoor draws. All in all I wouldn't expect a flush very often. The paired board is almost irrelevant, there shouldn't be any boats. Value comes from A2ss, 22 and a rare flush; bluffs come from a lot of front door draws. Straightforward call but as above this could have been much more aggressive particularly on the flop.

Just wanted to point out that I had only seen the guy play for just over an hour.

This is a private game that I know 90% of the players. There are some players I would call against 100% of the time here and some I would fold 100% of the time.

I was lost due to him being relatively unknown.

I think it seems to be relatively agreed I shoulda bet more in the flop. Lesson learned.

I’m new to posting here, so I avoided the result as to avoid being result oriented in our analysis, but do these hand posts generally post results eventually?


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Yeah, playing with him for just an hour really isn't long enough to classify him one way or another. The problem otf is the SPR is very low, so if you make a reasonable cbet and he calls, if you jam the turn it's like 110 into 170 and when players feel committed they won't really fold too easily so you lose FE (fold equity) the more money the put into the pot. And yeah there's a rule on here that you have to wait at least 24hrs before posting results, but to be honest, results don't really matter anyway since it's just one trial out of a hundred that we have to base our decisions on in the long run.

When we don't have good signal, we have to assume standard 1/3 Priors, and our general prior is that low stakes players don't usually make massive river bluffs (or certainly not at a rate where you can pick them off profitably), so I lean sigh fold, until we have some more info.

I appreciate this from a new poster. I would wait a minimum of 36 hours or at the point when interest in the thread is dying down, whichever comes later.