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1/2 Outplaying Nits 1/2 Outplaying Nits

11-10-2015 , 01:07 PM
1/2 Game

V: 50 year old chinese Lady which is realy easily to read because she only play the top of her Range. Sometimes she doesn't raise AK (because its no pair) and if she is 3betting she normally has QQ+. I played a lot with her and she really doesn't like me. Whenever i come to her table she gets angry and tell me to go to another table because i won alot of pots against her. I also have some kind of sizing tells on her. Normally a big sizie means she is good. Also typicial for her is, if the flush comes in on the turn and you bet she is always butting everybody on a flush. Was kind of a second plan to rep a flush if the board runs out for me.

I think the image from hero is not that important because she always plays the same against every opponent. But she would definitly see me as a winningplayer who can get creative and make some bluffs.

OTTH:

After a straddle and 1 limper i opened J10hh to 20 (table was very Deep). V1 raised to 45 in the SB. She has about 270 in front of her. Normally i always fold to her 3bets because she is always starting with 50 bbs. In this case i thought i only have to bringt 25 more to win a big hand if a flop well and I can put her on 3 specific hands: AA KK QQ

Flop (100): As 7s 3h

She leads out for 40. Hero raised to 80. I was pretty sure if she has AA she would but in a Raise so i was testing her which of the 3 combiinations she has. (Also her face didn't looked that happy to see this flop) I also get 40 more from her KK QQ and she has 120 left which is enove to get her fold the turn. Is this total spew?
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11-10-2015 , 01:13 PM
Feels like spew, and like you switched plans mid-hand. Pre flop, you're calling because you only have to bring 25 more to win a big hand if you flop well. So pre-flop you're justifying playing the hand based on implied odds and that she'll pay you off if you hit.

Put aside whether this is a good plan (I don't think it is since you're not deep enough to call a three-bet). If you think you have IO, you don't think she's folding her big pairs post. However, when an A-high flop comes, you're now trying to bluff her out of it with effectively zero equity. That's inconsistent with your justification for calling pre-flop. Against a nit you can either have IO or fold equity, but not both.

As played, if you're going to try to bluff her out of the pot, you need to shove. I don't think this is a good idea, but once she calls your min-raise there is $260 in the pot. If she has $120 left she's completely committed.
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11-10-2015 , 01:42 PM
I think this is so bad for 1/2. That board is so dry and 1/2 players are unpredictable. I think one of four things will happen here:

1. She has KK or QQ (most likely KK) and says "well scwew it" and jam/calls down any runout.

2. She has AA or AK and loves it.

3. She has KK or QQ and stops and thinks for two seconds about your line and the fact that you would've 4! PF with AA and raised way more OTF with AK, then snaps you off.

4. She says "aiiyaaa not again" and mucks QQ.

Overall I think you're playing with fire.

edit: also appreciate this ^ post, really made it easy to understand for this newb (IO/FE can't have both).

Last edited by Stupidbanana; 11-10-2015 at 01:48 PM.
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11-10-2015 , 02:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MIB211
Feels like spew, and like you switched plans mid-hand. Pre flop, you're calling because you only have to bring 25 more to win a big hand if you flop well. So pre-flop you're justifying playing the hand based on implied odds and that she'll pay you off if you hit.

Put aside whether this is a good plan (I don't think it is since you're not deep enough to call a three-bet). If you think you have IO, you don't think she's folding her big pairs post. However, when an A-high flop comes, you're now trying to bluff her out of it with effectively zero equity. That's inconsistent with your justification for calling pre-flop. Against a nit you can either have IO or fold equity, but not both.

As played, if you're going to try to bluff her out of the pot, you need to shove. I don't think this is a good idea, but once she calls your min-raise there is $260 in the pot. If she has $120 left she's completely committed.
I don't really agree with this. Plenty of nits will overvalue overpairs but still fold too often when an A flops.

You should fold preflop, because you're guaranteed to have 2 undercards to her PP and you aren't nearly deep enough.

AP, it's kind of gross, because 80% of her range (at least before she bets) is scared of the A, but she has so little money behind it's hard to be sure that we can force her out of the hand. If your reads are correct, your line is obviously better than folding, but I would probably be tempted to do a one-and-done raise of $100.
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11-10-2015 , 03:23 PM
We're turning implied odds into reverse implied odds. AWESOME!!!
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11-10-2015 , 05:47 PM
This has to be either a fold or a call. I can't see any advantage to raising this flop against this player instead of floating.

If she has AA/AK, she's betting again on the turn, and she's never folding to your raise anyway. You can safely fold to her second barrel.

If she has KK/QQ, she's usually checking on the turn. You can then bet $75-80, clearly setting up a river shove, and she's probably mutter-folding. She's a nit, so if she check-calls the turn, it's still worth jamming the river. She won't be thinking about pot odds, she'll be thinking about the remaining $80 she can save.

Calling the flop also allows you to represent the flush on the turn.

So min-raising the flop wins you her flop bet + the preflop pot when she folds outright. Calling the flop and then betting turns when she checks... also wins you her flop bet + the preflop pot. If you're right that she has AA/KK/QQ, and I'm right that a nit won't keep barreling KK/QQ with an A on the board, then why not accept the additional information on the turn, while also adopting a bunch of phantom outs?
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11-10-2015 , 06:03 PM
I think you made the right decision to call preflop. You're getting 4:1 and you have villain's range and tendancies well defined.

Does she normally cbet? A nit might just give up with QQ or KK after the A on the flop. I think you should float instead of raise. Let the board get scarier and let her think you have something. If she bets again, you can safely fold. You have the option to take it away from her depending on the turn and her actions.
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11-10-2015 , 06:35 PM
I agree in that you seemed to have changed course from your original reason to call. You really didnt flop anything except back door draws. Also you know right your behind to whatever she has.

Assuming shes nitty, generally speaking, if nits raise with KK or QQ and an Ace comes on the board, most time their checking, not cbetting. And again, if she is nitty or a newbie, when she says her face didnt like this flop, sounds like a reverse tell.

I would have saved the $80 and folded flop. At 1/2 my objective is to value bet not out play players "repping" hands.
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11-10-2015 , 07:04 PM
Pre is fine, your getting a decent price, you have position and a hand that flops well. OTF I'm either folding or floating with the intention of bluffing if she checks repping the flush or A. Raising in this spot seems spewy, you don't rep much.
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11-10-2015 , 08:33 PM
PF is awful. You raise with trash in a 1/2 game then you call when you're 20:1 against hitting 2pr+ and the villain only has 13:1 to pay you off. You can't even bluff because the villain believes you bluff a lot.

Congrats on winning the pot.
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11-11-2015 , 12:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
PF is awful. You raise with trash in a 1/2 game then you call when you're 20:1 against hitting 2pr+ and the villain only has 13:1 to pay you off. You can't even bluff because the villain believes you bluff a lot.

Congrats on winning the pot.
+1

I like the idea that Hero is thinking outside the box but I think this is a bad spot. Essentially bluffing with only runner runner equity with a min raise seems like a bad spot. You need to find a way to put pressure on the Villain.

If she calls the flop, do you have a plan for all turn cards?
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11-11-2015 , 08:05 AM
My plan was to ship every turn which is no KQ or A. She doesn't think about opponnents ranges that much. She only looked at her hand and the board. She doesn't looked at me for one second. I was pretty sure she put me on Ak aq depends what she had. Why is it bad to have 2 plans for a hand? In one case i probably flop well or the board is scary for her hand and i can outplay her because i know her hand. I really played many hours with her.I trusted my reads and she folded the turn and turned over qq startet trashtalking.
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11-11-2015 , 08:11 AM
normally she is very aggressive postflop with her overpairs and is able to cbet. But normally 2/3 to potzized bets. But in this case she only bet 40. And she never never has ak here. I heard her talking a lot about ak and as i told you she sometimes even doesn't raise it preflop and she is never 3b that small with it. If she raise ak she goes allin
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11-11-2015 , 10:35 AM
What position were you in?

Postflop is not total spew IMO. Nits fold a lot for $120 and at 1/2 bets of $100 or more look really huge to a nit. Even if the pot is much bigger, they aren't counting the size of the pot. They will see the big bet, the ace, and fold. Also, even though your play is inconsistent with a flush draw, villain might not even see that and is still likely to be even more scared if a flush card comes.

PF is clearly worse. Your implied odds suck and villain has such a strong hand that she will often like the flop and you often won't be able to steal. And with a hand like JTs you often need to see the turn to see if you'll even have a flush or straight draw, which is a problem when she bets the flop a lot.
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11-11-2015 , 01:01 PM
i really disagree with pre, it probably has been said but you can outplay nits by folding when they have the nuts and laugh at them when they get no action

on top of this, JThh is a really bad hand to try to flop something imo

now postflop huhhhhh your line makes little sense, this is a spot where you should be VERY unbalanced towards value hands that beats AK and would be brilliant if you actually beat AK because even QQ-KK is always calling OTF.

for value (with AA-77 for ex) i would make it like 50 OTT, as a bluff I'd make it 200... but she doesn't have 200. the difference between 120 and 200 is huge so idk if you have any enough FE, try it and report back.
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11-11-2015 , 02:21 PM
If you were both deeper, I'd be totally fine with peeling with J10s.

Postflop, I still think a float >>>> a raise. I suppose in this case that min-raising netted you an extra $40, but I think the bluff gets through a lot easier if you call the flop and let her give up on the turn.
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11-11-2015 , 03:50 PM
Calling the 3bet against a nit is bad (especially when short). If we assume in general that the range is AA KK QQ AK.

If the flop is Ace high. AA AK is happy.

If the flop is King high. AA KK AK is happy.

If the is Queen high AA KK QQ is happy.

Now when they continue we have to respond not certain where we are which leaves us guessing and eliminating any edge we have against them.

We need more reasons to call pre against a nit. Deep stacks, multiple opponents or hands that aren't dominated that can play well against the Aces. Perhaps Jh10h could be one. We need a hand that if it hits we know we've cracked them but if they miss it's an easy fold. You missed now fold.
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11-11-2015 , 06:11 PM
lil bit of a spew.

is she really going to fold for 120 on the turn when she has already put in 125?

if she calls the flop raise, she will most likely call the turn.

if you are really trying to get a fold out of her, you should flat the flop and bet 125 on any turn card.

also, she is only starting with 250ish if she only has 120 left after your flop raise.

overall, bluffing nits is very profitable. this situation? borderline. all depends on your table image to her on that day.
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11-11-2015 , 06:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
PF is awful. You raise with trash in a 1/2 game then you call when you're 20:1 against hitting 2pr+ and the villain only has 13:1 to pay you off. You can't even bluff because the villain believes you bluff a lot.

Congrats on winning the pot.
JT is trash? You view of poker is so odd.
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11-11-2015 , 06:22 PM
i had a hand against the exact type of opponent you're describing. this guy normally buys in for 100 and when i sat down at the table he had about 700 in front of him. a few hours passed and i got up to about 750 and his stack basically stayed where it was. i picked up QQ some guy raised to 15 he made it 60, at this point i know he has KK AA and i'm set mining with QQ. i called anyway knowing he would stack off on Qxx boards the flop came 10cJcX turn was a 9 i raised him on the turn for $200 river was the Ac. he checked and i jammed for $400 and thought for about 15 seconds and called it off with KK.

there are two types of nits. the ones that will fold at any sign of their hand being beat and the ones that figure they play so few hands that they are stacking off no matter what comes on the board.

my advice is to make a bigger raise and if they don't fold to that raise then just give up because they aren't going to fold no matter what.
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11-11-2015 , 08:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MIB211
As played, if you're going to try to bluff her out of the pot, you need to shove. I don't think this is a good idea, but once she calls your min-raise there is $260 in the pot. If she has $120 left she's completely committed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PFunkaliscious
lil bit of a spew.

is she really going to fold for 120 on the turn when she has already put in 125?
The bets she put in were $45 and $40, and then another $40. $120 is going to seem much bigger to her. And I seriously doubt she is thinking about being committed to the pot.
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11-12-2015 , 12:12 AM
Yes spew. Imho this is not how you outplay nits. This is how you pay them off.
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11-12-2015 , 12:34 AM
^Yeah this is true. It's fish thinking to call PF thinking "Yeah villain has a monster but I can hit my hand after the flop and stack him/her!"
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11-12-2015 , 01:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Venice10
PF is awful. You raise with trash in a 1/2 game then you call when you're 20:1 against hitting 2pr+ and the villain only has 13:1 to pay you off. You can't even bluff because the villain believes you bluff a lot.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PFunkaliscious
JT is trash? You view of poker is so odd.
It's not trash if you don't consider a speculative hand, in the bottom end of a 11.5% range as trash in reference to raising pre.

However, we don't know what seat you had, so we don't know how many had to act behind you.

In any event, I don't understand how, if both the Straddler & Limper fold a lot to raises & you're sitting OTB, it could be perceived as a bad play. However, that's a big if.

Say the Straddler will fold to a raise to $20 with anything but the top 15% range & so will the Blinds & the Limper.

.85 ^ 4 or: .85 * .85 * .85 * .85 = 52.20% of the time you'll take it down without a challenge. However, most Straddlers are gamblers & defend their straddle with a wider range, which puts the pot at $48 - $4 rake/$1 BBJ = $43.00.

That gives the limper $42 [as they'll rake another $1. if he calls] / $15 = 2.8:1 on his money.

This, IMHO, is what would have likely happened had the SB not 4!

NOTE: We've had this discussion [what's a 3! & what isn't etc.] but this was not one of the ??'s Squid Face asked. I would assume the SB's raise is a 4! as I would regard the straddle as a blind raise.]

Even if the blinds had folded, your JTs does have equity postflop [more so if neither of the two come over the top] since your IP.

However, that's not what happened. You got your dream scenario!
The SB [whom you have a "soul read" on, had one of her top 3/4% hands & 4! and you were able to play her postflop, IP, reading her like an open book.

However, will you be correct in your read 100% of the time? How often do you have to be correct in your read for your play to be profitable long term? How comfortable are you playing JTs vs. various flop/turn boards vs. the Straddler & Limper when the blinds fold & those two specific players call?

Last edited by ZuneIt; 11-12-2015 at 01:36 PM.
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11-13-2015 , 10:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sierradave
If you were both deeper, I'd be totally fine with peeling with J10s.

Postflop, I still think a float >>>> a raise. I suppose in this case that min-raising netted you an extra $40, but I think the bluff gets through a lot easier if you call the flop and let her give up on the turn.
This, and this.

She has an exploitable line, but you don't have enough ammo to exploit her. Too bad.

Even if there was enough money in play -- before you get all fancy OTF, ask yourself, where in the hand do nits fold? Answer: later. Her plan is to not let you bluff her off her equity, and to not pay you off if you hit. That means, save your bluffs for later.

Note also you have a backdoor draw. Also an argument for a call (as opposed to a raise, or a fold). But, once again: do you have enough chips to let this hand develop through the river? I don't think so.

This is the problem with nits, other than the fact that they are, well, nitty. It's that they hardly ever have enough chips to bother messing with them. This is not a coincidence. Your generic, default nit line is pretty good short-stack strategy, especially true for the stubborn sort of nits, who at times act like they actually read PNLE huh. Gotta catch them when they are outside their comfort zone playing deep imo.

Last edited by AbqDave; 11-13-2015 at 11:04 AM.
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