V1 late 30s guy, no reads, a bit over $300

V2 middle age guy, no history, no reads, covers hero slightly with a bit over $400

1/2, hero bought in for 75% ofbthe large stack which is table max for $400, first hand. Waiting for bigger game.

7 handed, folds to v1 in HJ who limps 2, hero raises to $15 with QsJc, folds to v2 in SB who calls, v1 calls also

Flop $47 KhTh5c, v2 checks, v1 bets 30, hero calls 30, v1 raises to $60, v2 calls, hero calls.

Flop $227 KhTh5c8h, v2 bets $20, v1 calls. Hero calls

River $287 KhTh5c8h3c, v2 bets $25, v1 folds, hero has $305 behind. Hero?

Analysis:

Villain seems to be a weak recreational just based on the action in hand. Cold calling in SB, min raising flop. Turn and river action is extremely capped.

Your game amuses me. Sometimes it's like 1/2/5/10/25/50/100 and here it's plain old 1/2.

SB looks petrified of the flush. I'd much rather have a heart, but sure why not. It won't tell as convincing a story as it would had you raised the turn, but there's got to be a chance it gets through. Maybe go 180ish? Obviously you'll look a bit of a wally when you run in to the nuts but it's got to be worth a go?

On the flop not all outs are clean but you can't fold at any point getting those odds.

Something is wrong with the betting order.

He could also be the one with a flush, I wouldn't really wanna do it here because these guys show up with all kinds of weirdly played hands, and these kinds of players might not even see the flush and still call with top pair anyway (I mean the other guy min-raised the flop with 3 players and then folded to 25 into 287 otr)

If you wanted to try it though, you shouldn't need to go higher than like 125/150.

My bad, v2 checks flop from SB, v1 donks flop, hero calls, v2 min clicks to 60 from SB, v1 calls, hero calls.

Lots of recs can’t bet fold. If you go hard at this your fold equity isn’t as good as you think it is if you don’t have reads. Also you should have raised turn to be more credible

So many times these situations can be hit or miss. so many variables. what is your image? is the guy tilted? Can he fold?

More often then not a huge bet of maybe $150 scoops....... looking at the pot 200 might be worth it..... so you might as well just shove... there's definitely an exploit to his sizing. he might have k9..... or 910.....

saw spoiler ....... Well played.....

I just sat at table and I don't recall any history with villain.

I think anything less than jam here is a mistake. Maybe in theory there are some hands we want to raise smaller for value and in theory we need bluffs for that sizing, but I just have one goal - get a king to fold. And I don't care if I am not balanced here.

A recreational player who'll be perfectly happy to call your re-raise bluff here with AK, KQ, KJ, K10, etc. You could jam and he still calls with enough of his range to make it unprofitable in the long run.

Like I said,

villain had K9 and minraised the flop into two people.

nits, stop folding the flop to minraises, and stop suggesting other do as well (ahem Gobbledygeek)

uses the spoiler

surprised this got through and despite not having much of any kind of similar sample id think this is losing vs most people. you cannot really rep a flush here and i dont think you dont want to be doing that when he bets 10% pot otr (can talk himself into thinking he induced). i think people tend to hero signifcantly more often when they take weird / bad line earlier in the hand either because panic and anxiety set in or theyve just made peace with getting stacked bc of their mistakes.

nh though

Very pessimistic guys. This is a very pure exploitative bluffing spot and I have a pretty high success rate with these kinds of bluffs. If it works just 50% of the time it's making money. Keep in mind AK is in some recreational player's ranges pre, but not all since he didn't 3bet. I also wouldn't be too surprised to see him size larger on all streets with AK, 2 pair, sets because recs are betting the strength of their hand.

Are we just going to assume K9 is the bottom of his range here and everything else is calling? I think KQ, KJ, K8 could easily be here and fold too.

Also, are we jamming flushes for value here because we think we get called by KJ?

I get it, there are a ton of spots in low stakes where we shouldn't bluff because villains have shown a ton of strength and they don't have enough folds. But there are also spots like these where villain is very capped and we just make money by bluffing.

Even if villain only folds 60% of the time here, our EV is $65, and I think that is a conservative estimate. The reality is the population that takes this line has an overwhelming majority of bet/fold to jam on the river. $65+ of EV in a single hand is a lot of money to be leaving on the table, especially in a 1/2 game. Embrace the variance.

FWIW I think 15 is too big pre. Would also much rather raise flop than call/call.
Also rather raise turn smaller and shove river if we are going to try this ... except SPR sucks for that.

Maybe.

He raised into a donk and PFR call on KT5 ... I'm more surprised that K9 is in range at all. And, yeh, I'd assume KQ calls near 100%. Assuming K8 folds is insanity, IMO.

With 1 SPR on river, yes we are shoving flushes.


Also it's one thing to shove with Qh or Jh here, but esp. when you just start shoving any QJ I think enough LL players will react by shrug calling JT here to make it real bad. Then there's the 5-10% of the time it's some bonus hand royal draw on the turn that then thinks it can't get much value on the river.

Eh, it's 305 into 312 so ~50% from our side to break even with doing nothing and have huge variance. From their side they only need to call ~33%.

Did you think the shove looked significantly stronger than a smaller raise?

i mean how much of a sample can you have of a person check minraise squeezing the flop and betting 10% on the turn and river into 2 on a board changing card? i think ive seen this line 0 times in the entirety of the time ive played poker. the fact he takes this line in general makes me think hes a weaker player and probably not someone you want to run completely random bluffs on, and you rep very little (hugely discounted flushes i guess). i get he has presumably a weak range, and sometimes you can throw money at the pot and win vs that but idk man. you can say he only has to fold 65% of the time and ur printing but we have no idea what his range is or what his frequencies to do with that range vs a raise and honestly the results dont really make that any clearer. is exciting it got through but i dont think this is a good line or a teachable moment or whatever it is you're doing here.

a better question is do you make the same play if villain checks turn and/or checks river? because that is a more realistic line with villian's range. in my experience some people will fold and others wont. some people expect you to bluff when they check to you so bluffing is suicidal. you really have to have good reads on them.