Villain is in MP and covers hero ($325). Is approx. 25yo and I have not seen him before. Handles chips well and has played standard TAG since I came to the table (approx. 45 mins.)

HERO (BB)($285): Should have a TAG or NIT image. Have been at the table a short period and have not really played much of anything.

Hero dealt Q9

Preflop ($3) folds to villain in MP and he makes it $10. Table standard had been $12, but I didn't read anything into this. In my experience younger guys typically will be the ones to raise smaller. With deeper stacks and a decent holding I elect to defend (Interested in peoples opinions of pre-flop). I would probably fold this if less than 100bb stacks or $15 or more pre-flop.

Flop ($23) J104 I check my open ended straight draw and B/D flush draw with the intention to check raise. I am not sure if I gave up a tell but I was thinking of making a play here. Villain checks behind with little delay. At this point I think that the villain has mostly showdown value hands (99, 88, 77, AK, AQ, maybe other Ace highs etc.)

Turn ($23) 6 Now I have the flush draw to go along with my straight draw and with villain having shown some weakness I go with $15. Villain does not delay much and calls.

River ($53) k Although I made my draw this does complete a nut draw for the villain. I bet $30 and villain doesn't pause long before raising to $100.

I am interested in river opinions of everyone else, but I think in reflection that my river bet should have been more towards full pot (at least $45).

Can't fold, definitely call. 3b is probably spew in such a small pot since he probably only calls with AQ or Q9

Fold pre unless he's really bad and stacking off with overpairs always and let/ you draw for cheap. SCs suck OOP. As played, it's a crying call. I would range him on AQ, KK, JJ, TT. You need roughly 28% equity to call. 12 combos of AQ vs 9 combos of sets makes this a call even though you are beat more often than not

Even if you take out KK it's still a call.

Grunch

I wouldn't want to play OOP with a weaker hand against a decent player who has the initiative. I'd just fold PF. If some fish limped in a call would be more tempting (but I'd still fold).

I don't think river is an "easy" fold. AQ makes the most sense but there are some other hands I could see him having there (AA, AK, KQ, KT, a set, KJ although that would be strangely played, and maybe a bluff).

Edit: Without knowing villain well it's hard to be sure which hands (that I listed above) are in his range. KQ and KJ would surprise me though but I wouldn't even completely rule them out. And I realize that the range I listed is wide but even if you narrow it a lot, you're still need to be good only a small percentage of the time for the call to be the right move.

Preflop call is not ideal in my opinion. But can't say I haven't done the same thing..

As played, have to call.. 2.6 to 1 pot odds. It's possible that sets and even AK/KQ are spewing here I think.

Fold pre.

Snap call river. He can easily have AK, KT, etc.

River is closer to a shove than a fold. But I think just calling is good.

I dislike almost everything about this hand as played.

I'm not looking to play hu against good opponents oop. Fold.

With a nit image I'm b/f the flop for $25.

X/c the turn.

B/c full pot on the river.

As played call.

I think I would fold pre-flop, but you absolutely cannot fold on the river. The action doesn't even come close to narrowing his range enough for you to think about folding.

Even if you assume he's never bluffing, what range do you think he would put you on? Certainly it wouldn't be as narrow and strong as what you actually have. That means he can raise for value with a lot less than AQ. He might very well bet that flop with a set or KK, but he might also bet with AQ (most 'standard TAG's would bet AQ especially if he reads you as a nit). And he could've been pot-controlling on the flop with a hand like KJ.

But you can't rule out a bluff at all. 45 minutes isn't nearly long enough to get that solid of a read. And most young guys are capable of bluffing the river. He could easily have checked behind on the flop with something like Ad3d or 98 bc JTx flops are likely to hit a blind-defending range and then tried to bluff the river when he missed.

btw I don't think there's anything wrong with your bet-sizing on the river. At that point you have no idea how strong his hand is, and you're getting called more often with the smaller bet.

Yes AQ would play the hand like this sometimes. However, there are hands Villain might raise river with for value thinking he has you beat. Every time I play I see villains slow play sets and raise the river even when straight gets there. If he is even slightly tricky and capable of bluffing its an easy call.

I agree with most everything you write here. Although with that turn card bringing the flush draw in addition to the OSED I'd probably barrel turn. Would you check call because you don't want to get raised off your equity and barrel a non-diamond turn? I definitely mostly default to the auto-pilot check to the raiser when I call from the blinds and haven't really spent a lot of time thinking through these situations.

Results: I called and got to look at the AQo. When I sat there thinking about the hand I really started to think about the river bet. Betting less than 60% pot targets the weaker part of his range (ie 10's and smaller pocket pairs vice the AK, K10 type hands that he would have for value and maybe call a pot size bet). I also think that if I bet pot that a K10 type hand would be less likely to raise for value and allow me to fold because if would be then even more likely that he is nutted.

FWIW I am not some scared MUBSY player. In fact I think I call too much and am trying to figure out these spots to get away from losing hands. I think the sizing of my river bet is awful. Still if I bet $50 and he makes it $150 I would have a hard time laying it down.

Because he checked the flop and called the turn arent the sets wayyy more unlikely? I dont think you can just say oh theres 9 combos of sets and 12 of AQ and look at them like they happen with equal frequency

Some thoughts on hand-reading...

V raises in MP... so we can probably put him on 22+ AT, AJ, AQ & AK - right? If he's tricky, we can add 89s, JTs, KQs and the like. But not much more... ok?

On flop, V does not even try to take a stab at pot!
So I think we can assume he's got no J, no T and no 4. We can also take him off hands that have draws like KQ and 89.
If he had JT, QT, KT or any 4 - I think he would have bet to protect his equity. He probably also would have to bet TTs-AAs.
And with AT or AJ - he definitely would have to bet.

On the turn, Hero bets into 6 (as the board starts to flush) but V just calls. What's he calling with?
22s-99s is still possible. (but we can now rule out 44 and 66)
Any AX would probably repop.
A 5,7 here would be weird. As would a 67 or 56. And again, if he hit his pair, wouldn't he repop it to protect against a flush? So all those are also unlikely.

So I think we can pretty much rule out J, T, 4, 6, big PPs and most connectors that match well with JT out of his hand.

What's left?
AK (with AK most unlikely)
My gut tells me we would have seen a bigger pre-flop bet with AK and a c-bet on the flop.

22, 33, 55, 77, 88 and 99
maybe A6?

But he repops us on the river.
Since he hasn't represented anything earlier... a bluff is highly unlikely here.
Which leaves us with AQ.
(If he had Q9, he probably would have bet that just the same as KQ.)

I think your river bet is fine. But, yeah, a fold is probably best on the re-raise.

Folding to the raise is way too MUBSy and results-oriented.

Folding to a river-raise from a passive opponent is how you make a larger profit at the end of the day.

See Baluga theorem for more info.

Folding the second nuts when we only need 28% to call is how you lose money at the end of the day. Unless V has exactly AQ always it's a call, and we can't assume that V always has AQ here. Just the fact that V could have AK here makes it a call, even if AQ makes more sense. This has nothing to do with Baluga theorem.

Only playing with a player for 45 minutes is not enough to be laying down the second nuts in this spot.

Young players who come across as TAGs are generally capable of making moves, and raising this river light, or with two pair or something similar for value are well within reason.

I'm never folding given our history/lackthereof. Usually calling.
Against some players I'm coming over the top. AQ is really is that large of a part of his range from what I can tell.

In our 1/2 games - A villain who "Handles chips well and has played standard TAG since I came to the table" - does not re-raise the river with just top pair. What does he think we're betting with? We could easily have KJ here.

In addition, we need to pay $70 to win $183? It sounds cheap, but it also sounds like a value-bet. (Isn't this 38%?) And it's close to a third of our remaining stack.

The beauty of poker is there are a variety of ways to play. against a total fish, I would raise. But against the V described, it's a fold.

BTW - you're right about Baluga... he advocates folding a single pair on a river raise. We're a lot stronger than that. my bad.

If you're betting the turn, its a bluff, even though you have a pretty nice draw. So we want some fold equity with that bet.

From this point of view, the turn is actually a poor card to bluff at. It changed nothing, and almost certainly didn't improve your hand. So Villain should call your turn bet, if he thinks he was good OTF.

I'm not saying we would never see folds to a turn bet on the given turn. But since your read is that Villain is not bad, we should give him some credit for being able to hand read. (And this is why I donk the flop.)

Yes, you don't want to get raised OTT and have to call a bet too big. (As an aside, if you know your opponent will not raise you big enough to make it too expensive to draw to the river, then b/c OTT can be a good play.)

Yeah, get the auto-pilot out of your mind though. Don't school up with the rest of the fish.

Hiro's hand reading essay is pretty good.

However, as played, AK calls Hero's turn bet with higher percentage then AQ does.

Also, I think AQ is more likely to bet the flop and try to take it down, where AK would be willing to see a card.

So we have to discount combos of AQ, while keeping all combos of AK.

I'm b/c the river because I think villain can play AK this way, including the raise OTR. Whereas I think AQ doesn't.

I also cannot completely discount a very poorly played JJ, TT, or KK here. I know I've made the point earlier that we think Villain is "good" -- and good would never play like this, but it does happen. So add in 1 or 2 combos of "sets".

Pre flop is ok given stack size, not great and would prefer another caller but its a justifiable call.

Could donk bet flop but checking is fine..

If flop is check/check, you have to lead turn and I'm making it either pot or very close to it. Good chance of taking down pot here if villain has 77/88.

River should be a bigger lead as you suggested.. 45-50. Villians raise could be based on your percieved weakness. Either way AQ is far from the only hand he may raise with. Snap call.

A few more things.

OP, don't label threads ".. this is an obvious X, right?" because you're leading the other posters (though I'm not sure anyone agrees). If you want an objective view (and also not to look silly if you're wrong), just stick with the facts.

Next, when we hold Qx here, we block 25% of AQ. Instead of 16 combos, he has 12.

Then, we're getting 2.6:1 on a call. That means we need < 30% equity. EVEN IF the remaining combos of AQ that we do not block comprise 70% of his range... that is, he has 12 combos of AQ and just 5 combos of other hands (2-pair, top pair, etc)... it's a call.

So it's just a snap call.

This analysis is full of unfounded assumptions. It seems jerry-rigged to find the fold. My notes are in bold.

The bold parts are why your river bet sizing is not awful. By betting smaller you:

Widen villain's value-raising range = more money won.

Make it more likely villain will bluff = more money won.

Make it more likely villain will call light = more money won.

Make villain's raise with AQ smaller = less money lost.

Yes, you probably are not getting raised by some hands that would call a bigger bet. And a bigger bet isn't necessarily bad per se. But it's not clear that a bigger bet is better.

And btw, making pot-sized bets with the second nuts for the purpose of finding a fold to a raise is crazy. Thinking like that will make you lose your mind and fold all sorts of hands that you should call with.

If you call too much then you should be evaluating situations where your instinct is to call with marginal hands (eg top two on a 4-straight board) more thoroughly and think through WHY you would be calling. This hand is not marginal, it's very strong.