Quote:
Originally Posted by blankblankobv
This analysis is full of unfounded assumptions. It seems jerry-rigged to find the fold. My notes are in bold.
Against a total fish - you could make a case about these being unfounded assumptions. But the truth is - poker players are a LOT better today than back when Chris Moneymaker won the WSOP. Players are there to play. They don't want to fold. They don't want to check.
OBSERVATION #1 in Live NL Play:
Players at 1/2 are rarely trying to pot control. They are looking for a reason to bet. Top pair. Mid pair. Straight draws. Flush draws... etc. You name it. If they have a reason to bet they will.
Heck, look at the OP's line. On the turn, he states... "I've got a flush draw! I must bet!" and so he does. Typical 1/2 action. And why not? As you probably know, the first one to bet the pot often wins it.
But any good player who's raising pre-flop - from MP, mind you - is definitely NOT putting chips in the middle to splash the pot. That dude is betting because he has a hand he can win money with. If he's not betting the flop, a VERY reasonable assumption can be made... it's because his hand is weak or he missed the flop.
99 would and should c-bet the flop. So should J9, KJ or any other crazy hand you think a good playing in MP raises with. (In a multi-way pot, AK doesn't always c-bet. But HU, it's almost 90%!)
But he doesn't bet....
Pot control? Really? The pot is $23. You can't even buy a descent meal for $23 nowadays. Why isn't our V c-betting the flop? What's a $12, $15 or $20 c-bet to his $300+ stack? It's nothing. By checking, he's surrendering his equity in the pot.
[BTW - a 5BB raise is child's play at our casino. Most raises start at $12 and go from $15, $20 and even $25 preflop. I know this doesn't follow the online logic of 2.5Xbb - but that's the reality of live casino play.]
"
Villain... could be trying to minimize losses against JT and sets. He could also be trying to get two streets of value with something like KJ against something like QT by looking weak on the flop"
This line of thinking baffles me. If V is trying to minimize his losses - he would fold to the turn bet. If he's trying to maximize his KJ or QT, he would reraise the weak turn bet. Neither occurred. So we can reasonably, exclude these from his range. No?
Unless Hero or V are horrible players - I don't see why anyone would be slow-playing a set. The board is too wet on the flop and improves to a FD on the turn. No good poker player in his right mind checks JJ, TT or 44 on the flop and doesn't make at least a pot-sized bet on the turn - or a reraise. Again, neither happened.
Trying to get 3 streets of value on the river with any J, T or 4 is a crazy way to play. Yeah, I guess V could be bluffing since Hero's bets have been small and weakish... but I think his bluffing % is here is in the single digits. Especially since the pot is so whimpy. $83? With V having only invested $25? A drunk poker play might do this. But based on Hero's perception of the V, that guy is not trying to save his 25 with a bluff.
which brings me to:
OBSERVATION #2 in NL Live Play:
On the river, players tend to check/call to show down hands that have value on the river. But raise/reraise/check-raise hands that are the nuts.
(Big hands win big pots. Small hands win small pots.)
Which is why I think AK doesn't reraise. He just calls. So does Q9. Only AQ can reraise.
Now, you're free to think my observations are as unfounded as my assumptions. But the more hours you put in Live NL, the more I think you'll find these axioms to be true.
GL