Quote:
Originally Posted by s.boxer
The last part of your post contradicts the rest. If someone has a set or two pair at this level they aren't folding to a RR ever no matter what the board is, and TBH if they had a set and they get 4bet they probably shouldn't fold due to pot odds anyway.
No, not all. Believe it or not players at 1/2 can fold two pair or an over pair here this deep to a 4bet AI.
I am putting UTG on a set or air here, all though his air could be pretty good cards.
I am putting UTG+1 on over cards or an over pair.
If we raise to $50, UTG RR to say $200 and UTG+1 talks himself into calling the 3bet with his range, if we ship it, UTG calls more times than not with a set, but what hand in the range I have assigned UTG+1 can he call the AI with?
If UTG+1 was described as a station, which he is specifically not, then we might get JJ-AA/AK to ship an AI call, but even then I think there is a higher chance he folds than calls the AI.
Think about it this way, when was the last time you seen a 3 way AI on that texture of a flop for $500 each? I have only seen it a couple times in the last few years, and each time it was set over set versus a straight.
If we ship it to a RR and call, we are folding out UTG+1 the vast majority of the time. When we RR, get 3bet and a call and we call we always see the turn 3 way where UTG+1 might improve and will have the opportunity to call a AI from UTG without our action influencing him, i.e. he is more likely to talk himself into calling the UTG AI if we look weaker than we are because we were hesitant in calling the 3 bet OTF.
Summary, when we 4 bet AI on the flop we fold out everything but sets, when we call a 3 bet and a call, we always have an additional opportunity to stack someone without a set.