Villain: Friendly, passive middle-aged southeast Asian lady, in the first hand she played (with $200 behind) she called a $10 UTG raise in the BB (1 other late position player did as well) with 10-8 off, flop was 794x, she checks UTG bets $15, late position folds, she calls. Turn is Jx, she checks, UTG bets $20, she raises to $60, UTG calls. River is 9x, she checks, UTG insta-shoves (had her covered, she had about $115 behind). She hems and haws about her bad luck, UTG is very confident about his hand, asks her if she has a 9, she says no, but is still reluctant to call. Finally she calls, and before she shows her hand hero says you have 10-8 don't you (I played with her enough to know her tough river decision meant she had a straight). UTG shows KK, and now she's over $400 but still talking about how she was sure he could have had a full house and how nervous she was calling. She asked hero how I knew what she had, I just said it made sense, and she said something like I guess we've played together too much. She then leaves to go for a smoke and doesn't come back for two orbits. She still has about $400 when this hand is played.

Hero: Late 20s, Asian male TAG, built my stack from $300 to about $500 by betting all streets with two pair with A6 and getting called on all streets by a player with just top pair, and betting all streets with top two pair with KQ and getting called on all streets by a player with just AK. On to the hand:

Hero ($500) is UTG+2 and raises to $10 with KQo, folds all around to Villain ($400) in BB who looks at her cards, asks the dealer how much, then calls.

Flop ($21): J108. Villain checks, hero bets $15, Villain says OK I'll see one more and calls.

Turn ($51): A. Villain checks again, hero bets $35, Villain calls.

River ($121): A. Villain checks, hero??

Wondering what to do here and also if the bet sizing was OK on the previous streets

I think I would've bet a bit more on the turn. Maybe $40-45. Otherwise, I think the hand is played fine.

Now bet $60.

Sizing is fine. I don't know if our history really tells us enough to help with this decision.

Let's see what I would do here if I were Villain

If I had a J with a decent kicker, I would call up to $80.
If I had an A I would call PSB or maybe all in shove.
If I had anything else, I am likely folding (except chopped broadway of course).

With 2 flush draws on the turn, her calling range can be pretty wide. We hope that she has AdXd but that is the only combo that gets paid large.

I would bet $75 - $80. You will surely get called by any Ace and Jx as well.

Value bet/fold river huge.

Played fine up until now. What a horrible river card. Not much value in betting unless you're confident that Villain has worse straights in their range.

River looks like a slam dunk bet/fold. There are a ton of combos you get value from (A9, AXdd, AQ, possibly stubborn KJ/QJ) and V would have often raised the turn with two pair. I'm going for a large bet here (probably $90) and folding pretty quickly if raised.

I'd bet river,but do it super small $35-40,with the intention of folding to a raise.Specific Villian has a very narrow range that would call a bigger bet that we beat,I like to squeeze value out of passive villains that will not make a play based on bet sizing.

The obvious play here is bet/fold, 1/2 pot is good so $60.

On the other hand, you have given us a clue, her flop comment "OK I'll see one more". V as described isn't making this remark to be deceptive. When she sees one more - the turn A - and calls again. This looks like AJ, AT or A8, more likely one of the latter as TPTK would not be so reluctant to call.

So if - a very big IF - her comment, your history with her and the live dynamics at the time give you a decent read that she has backed into a full house, ok to check behind.

There is no way for 2+2'ers to make this kind of read without being there, other than you put that comment in the post for a reason.

Bet/fold to about $60. Bet sizing looks good to me.

Obviously the OP put this comment in his post as a little bit of a red herron for us.

Do you think the "Ill see one more" is more often used to fill in a gutshot (AJ, A, or even A9). Or as a cry to match your second pair (A8, AT, ext)?

Interstingly, the interpretation of that comment will have a huge impact on the river. If you believe it means "I have AJ, lets see if the dealer can throw a Q out there". Then the correct move is AI..

If however, you interperet "I have a lowly pair, but I have a nice kicker.. Ill see one more to try and draw to trips or two pair", then a check is prudent.

Nice work up to this point. And nice post, by throwing in that comment!

Villain is friendly, passive, middle aged SE Asian lady, was MUBsy earlier with her straight. So it's not a deceptive comment. When she calls again OTT that must mean she improved, right? Gotta be aces up. Ace on turn didn't help any gutshots...

AQ, AJ, A9...

After considering the comment. I like the check OR Shove.

I would imagine her holdings are more likely to be three aces than a full house. She has to know how scary that Ace looks, so a villain iwth a full house probably bets out into our hero.

Shoving. That is my final answer. Let her pay me off with AJ...

I'd bet bigger ott. Sometimes, the turn is your last street of value if she hits. Against diamonds she's only putting money in otr with the flush (you didn't know ott that's a second Ace would hit neither of which is the Ad). And there are times the turn is your last street of value if she misses. Against 9x, when she doesn't river the oesd, you win the pot but the turn is the last street she puts money in at all. So either way you can get more ott, and middle-aged woman often have inelastic calling ranges so you can probably just pot it.

OTR she has AdXx and will call it all, or has nothing. It'd be nice to know if she'd c/r without the nuts. The T8 hand it took the nuts for the turn c/r, do you know what she'd do with 2-pair ott here? 2-pair is strong but some people need the nuts or they need to hit a certain threshold, like at least a flush, to c/r. I feel like shoving, she has air and folds or trips and calls.

AJ crushes us

Agree with all the bet/folders. I'm probably betting on the smaller side, like $55, here. The bet targets the Js in her range, misses a little value from the As.

Turn bet should be a little bigger, $40-45. Otherwise you played it fine.

I would bet 110. Odds are she has an ace of some sort (either a flush draw, A8, A9, AT, probably not AJ), and she's not folding any ace. Obviously folding to a raise.

With her call on the turn after the "OK I'll see one more" comment on the flop I also assumed her hand improved with the A, or at least she didn't lose any equity with it. But given this type of villain and the previous hand of hers I described, are we ever giving her credit for aces up on the turn which turned into a full house on the river, and if so, is this type of villain ever checking to me on the river rather than leading out for value?

Are we ever giving her credit for aces up OTT? Yes. Other than that and OESD with A that picked up top pair, or same cards as yours, what else improves with the ace?

If so, is this type of villain ever checking to you on the river? Maybe. I don't know her, but you apparently. Title of post says "familiar villain." If she thinks you'll bet again, then C/R river might be her highest EV play.

Which is why the most common advice so far is bet/fold the river. Her weaker hands with an A likely call. Her full houses raise.

In this war for information, if, if, IF her comment provides just enough additional information - based on your familiarity with her - to decide to check back the river, then checking back is a good decision. At most places where I play, when the river checks around, the first player to the left of the button has to show first. So you gain info about her hand, for future reference if she ever makes that comment again, and if she has the boat then you can just muck.

If she's as MUBSy as described, and has A-8, I can see this villain type checking the river in fear of a bigger full house.