1/2 Friday night Parx casino, Philly. I am a reg at this casino, usually play 25-30 hrs. per week for a second income. Very rarely does no one at my table know me or I don't recognize anyone but this is one of those times. Yum Yum....

Reads.

Villain is 25ish wearing skinny jeans, backwards hat, and tattoo sleeves up both arms. He is horrible. Called $270 all-in earlier with KQ on a AJ9 flop. Raises all his pairs 22-JJ to 15, has went through 2 buy-ins of $200 each and said he hopes he doesn't lose all his money before rebuying the last time. Has built this buy-in up some buy winning an all-in AA vs QQ.

Preflop: Folds to hero($215) in mp with AQ raises to $12. Folds to Villain($450) who calls in the small. We see the flop heads up.

Flop($25): J73
Villain donks for $20. Hero raises to $85.

Villain sits there laughing, says "it's one of those days huh?" Hums and ha's then says "this is so bad" then calls.

Turn($194): J732

Villain sits there staring at the dealer with a blank face then says "what?" Dealer says its your action. He can't believe it, and thought that I was all-in on the flop. I can tell he is not acting and he says "damn man, I never would have called if I knew you had that much money behind" and checks. He is genuinely pissed at himself. Hero???

I am in a weird spot here. I know he doesn't have a strong hand at all and I have less than a pot sized bet left. I know if I check here he will call the river if I miss and try to buy it, but I'm not so sure if he is good enough to fold on the turn if I push. I don't just want to check then fold to his donk bet on the river, and I have all the flush outs plus any A and Q also. Help. Was this a mistake raising the flop against this villain?

that 2 on the turn doesnt change anything, so I feel like you have no fold equity.. I just check behind and hope to hit a flush or pair and then shove

Why not shove? U could easily have the best hand here unless he is trying to level you with that speech I guess... I would just hate it if he had something like 89 and ends up winning with an 8 on the river. Also... He could fold on the river when u ship and hit.

I feel like checking then betting as a bluff otr is out of the question. So I'd either check it down to the river. Shove any A,Q or spade or ship turn. With a preference toward shipping turn.

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Shove turn for value. He basically let you know he is on a draw or has bottom pair and if you run the equity of all the open enders gutshots flush draws and weak pairs you are probably 70% ahead and you have a small % of fold equity even though its not that much. So based of the apparent range its a clear shove.

It may not have worked out this time but he can also easily rep a lot of hands and bluff shove the river cause you never have a made hand checking back the turn.

He might also get there on the river with a gutshot/backdoor flush draw and giving him a free card on the turn is detrimental cause that is a hand he would have probably folded given the nonspade turn.


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What was your plan if he shpoved the flop by the way. And what is your reason for raising the flop?

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Raising the flop is terrible against a spewy calling station. Just call and reevaluate on the turn.

I agree here. You're mistake was raising on the flop.

You've already established the villain as a donk/calling station. When he called your preflop raise from the small blind and then lead out on the turn, he's basically telling you he hit the jack (or even the seven). So your raise has no fold equity.

You're about a 53:47 underdog if he has AJ or QJ, and a 53:47 favorite if he has Jx. All you are doing by raising the flop is getting into a potential coinflip situation with a weaker player.

A/P ship it. Call is prob better than raising flop against this type of player, but I don't mind a flop raise. You're just gonna have to follow through with the 2nd barrel.

How can you be a favourite if he has Jx? If he has Jx we need to hit an A, a Q or 9 's. 15 outs. 31%. EDIT: oh you meant on the flop. Fair enough!

Don't follow it through with the second barrel. He's a calling station. You said if you check back and hit he'll probably donk into you. Check back and risk it. If he's got nothing he's probably not gonna bet river anyway.

Preflop looks obvious.

I would just flat the flop. We obviously have no FE against this guy, right? So even though part of the time we are so-so favourite against him (such as when he only has TP), there are other times when we might be way behind (set, etc.) or even reverse dominated and not have as many outs as we think we do (AJ/QJ). Plus my guess is that his bet sizing probably sucks and there's a decent chance we see a "same bet" on the turn. Against people who can't fold, I just sit back and wait until I make my hand.

On the turn, I just check behind. This guy is bad. He's calling any piece now that's he's made the mistake of getting this far. We're only ahead of very few hands (basically, worse draws).

Gagainstbadcallingstations,hityourhandfirstbeforeg ettingchipsinG

^ listen to the man!

You told yourself in your own post why you shouldn't be raising flop. Betting/shoving turn would also be pretty bad.

I don't believe exaggerated live tells. He may be that bad and giving away everything like an idiot, but more often than not it's bad acting.

Regardless, live tells don't really matter here, draw with good odds and position against calling stations, don't try to bet them out.

i agree- flat the flop. then id probably ship any A/Q turn assuming he continues to lead, and i would allow villain to continue to hang himself if the spade comes on the turn, and id just call.
as played, i think take the free card- you dont have any FE and he is liable to look you up with 66/88 type stuff here, given the read

This is so ****ing awful advise.

Raise flop 100% of the time.

Shove turn. Seriously, he has a weaker flush draw or some garbage like T9/T8/98 a large % of the time.

this is so awful engrish

Bold says it all. If you're confident in your read then you gotta shove turn.

Definitely shove now if his expressions are legit... but yes raising flop was 100% a mistake. He is a call station - make the hand and then charge him. You only have a slight equity advantage over so many weak hands on the flop. The semi bluff is only the better line when villain has a fold button.

lol @ raising flop being a mistake.

Board: Js 7s 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.424% 52.42% 00.00% 4671 0.00 { AsQs }
Hand 1: 47.576% 47.58% 00.00% 4239 0.00 { JTo }

So would you rather pull in $5 +EV per $100 that villain puts in the pot (with the equity above)... or would you rather be able to lose $20~$50 when you miss and make $215 when you hit.

I prefer the +~$70 EV option over the +~$12 EV option.

Raising flop is a BIG mistake against this type of opponent. The reason we play our draws fast is because of fold equity. In this case against this opponent we have NONE. We have a monster draw, 2 overs, and position. On the turn we have to call 0 to win a pot of 150ish I believe, decent odds for our hand. I don't think the turn is even a question it's a check every time. The only question about this hand is the flop decision and you definitely need to just call like 100% of the time against this opponent.

Lol shipping 200+ BB with Ace high against a station. Try this for a few months in every similar situation and let me know how much money put a match to. They will call you with 3rd pair almost everytime.

NEVER bluff the station. 200+ bb with Ace high is in fact a bluff even if you think you are bluffing with the best hand.

AGAIN! YOU HAVE POSITION!

I've lost too much money semi-bluffing calling stations to agree with the raise on the flop. You already know this guy can't fold, and so your bet needs to be for value. How certain are you that your A high is good? My experience is that people who show tons of weakness this obviously are often strong, but you seem to believe the act. I'd check back here, but if your read is that A high is good, I'm fine with a shove.

I know what you're saying, but I'm sure we've all been in spots where for some hard to explain reason, we just really felt that THIS TIME villain's act is sincere, and if we have that feeling (like hero) then I think we gotta shove, but there's kind've an ancillary reason why I like the shove also: If our read is wrong, the price of being wrong really isn't that bad. We're gonna have 15 outs here very often--more often than usual after this action imo. So since being wrong doesn't cost us much, I think that's another reason for hero to go with his "villain is sincere" read and shove it in.

It's not a question of whether raising the flop is a mistake in terms of EV (for it most likely is definitely +EV). The question is whether it is more EV to simply call instead (and it is, imo).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Yeah, you're just going to have to explain this one.

Gindinglive has posibly the worst posts on here. He doesnt' know what he's talking about.

I prefer folding and sacrificing slim EV for big profits.