Villain is a white male in his mid 40s who plays a lot of pots, but generally plays them passively preflop. He loves to button straddle. We have played a few hands against one another. On two occasions, he has limped and called my raise and then donked into me on the flop only to fold to a raise both times. He's also the opponent from this hand, which happened earlier in the session:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...blind-1450132/

I have ~200; Villain covers.

Tight old reg opens to 10 in MP, short stack lady ($30) calls in CO, SB calls, I 3-bet to 55 in BB with AA, MP folds, CO calls all in, SB calls.
Flop (150 [100 main pot; 50 side pot]): T-4-3
SB shoves, I (148) ... ?

I obviously wasn't thrilled with the flop, but it's hard to believe he would open shove with a flush. TT may be a strong possibility.

I imagine there's a chip stack big enough that I fold to such an overbet shove, but I'm not sure where that point is.

Call

That's pretty gross. To say you should never fold AA, I think, is a mistake

Should you fold here? I don't know. It's a pretty awful flop for two black Aces. Even though we only have a PSB left here, I think I'd find a fold.

You have a side pot, which will force the hand to go to showdown. So you see what his range is for doing this, put it in your brain and utilize it for the next time.

You also say he plays passively and how he's open shoved.

I generally hate folding AA ... I think I might here.

It seems like he has top pair or a pp with a flush redraw. Tough spot to be in with two black Aces. I would call thinking I'm ahead most of the time here because its clear he doesn't really like the three heart board as much to go AI. Just seems like semi bluff or he might have a pp

I think you have to cry call here. You only need to win around 33% of the time to breakeven. Put him on a range. He's passive but pot is big so he might just spaz out with a hand like 9h9x. 44, 33 don't make sense since you 3bet pre so big. TT makes sense. QQ, JJ make sense too. He wouldn't shove with nut flush. KQhh, KJhh, QJhh make sense but that's 3 combos only and he might check to trap sometimes. If he's loose enough pre to call with a hand like 78hh, 97hh I think you have to fold considering how passive he is

Whenever we are in these sorts of spots, there will always be a tendency to think in terms of all the hands (sets and flushes) that beat us.

But that is only part of the equation. V also shoves here with JJ, QQ, AK, AQ, KQ and the occasional ******ed T9o, JTo, QTo, KTo, and ATo that shouldn't have called our preflop raise but did trying to get lucky...

And we are facing a pot sized bet...

This is a crying call

how big would stacks need to be for me to fold???

truth be told, a PSB is right around my threshold as it is, so it wouldn't take much more, probably $200 or more and I'd fold

Calling, but I'm mad about it lol. You're beat sometimes, you're way ahead sometimes, you're up against TxXh sometimes. Kinda sucks, but you should call. Hope the runoff was Ad 3c.

Why wouldn't he shove with the flush? I see it happen regularly.

And, let's look at all of the analysis in this thread: 'Well, he can't have the flush because he wouldn't shove with that.' Well, he shoved. So, if he has the flush, shoving with the flush is apparently the right idea.

I have no idea what level this villain is thinking on. Maybe he understands that, with only a PSB left in a 3-bet pot, it's going to be very hard to Hero to fold his AA.

I think villain can shove with a flush, sure...

It's just that at this level, I think it's more common for baby flushes to want to peel one card off then shove safe turns.

If we include flushes in his shove range, getting 2:1 on a call we do have just barely enough equity to make the crying call.

We have an SPR of 1 with AA. The mistake made by villain is huge and I think this is a call hopefully getting around even money. Obviously we don't have much room for improving but I think we are against JJ-KK with a heart a fair amount of the time.

If we are worried about flopped flushes, then we have a serious case of MUBS

This is probably a fold. You mentioned that V plays passively. Usually when passive players go all-in they have a pretty nutted hand.

I would make a crying call here. Even though the Villain.description is passive, bad villains tendency on 3! Pots sometimes become total spazz. Like Dgi pointed out, we are playing against a set of ranges and not a few hands which we think beats us to find a fold.

Having said that, 1/2 villains does not ever take the lines of levelling particularly on 3! Pots. And the open flop shove is extremely polarized a lot.

So I feel we beat more than 50% of the hands in his shove range as against a few hands that beat us. Mathematically I find a call. Crying call but still I call

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I don't even think its a crying call. I expect to see JJ/QQ with a heart as his most likely hand here. Sure he can have TT but if he has 33/44 in his preflop range then he also has 22 and 55-99 with a heart which may shove sometimes.

Folding here is a huge mistake without a massive read.

People value bet when they believe that they have greater than 50% equity against the hands that call.

If seems like everyone believe this is the likely scenario: We make a huge pre-flop bet, and then on the flop Villain decides his JJ is good and shoves hoping to get called by exactly what range of hands?

It sounds like everyone believes that our calling range consists mostly of underpairs or things like ace-ten off.

If we think our opponent is good he can't be calling for 25% of his stack preflop putting on us on QQ+, hoping to smash a set ot flush and open shove it for value. His thought process may be hmm I have a pair, I dont want an ace or king to come on turn so ALL IN.

Result: I called.

Villain had JJ with the J. Shorty had JT.

Turn: T

River: 3

I think you are leveling yourself. The average 1/2nl player doesn't think about our calling range when they shove.

They are level 1 and their thought process is more or less, "I haz top pair, I thinkz I'm ahead, must shove..."

occasionally they throw in a "I put you on AK" before they shove.

I see this all the time at 1/2nl and 1/3nl, 95% of the player pool shoves all the time with no regard for what hands can actually call their shoves. If they have what they think is a "good hand" then they shove

Do you think Villain was value-betting, bluffing, or had no idea?

It sounds like you believe that he was value-betting in a silly spot, correct?

Grunch

Unless this villain is all kinds of terrible, (he called a $55 3! OOP). So to me I think he has either Axs or TT+

Since we have both black aces his holdings are limited to diamond and heart combos. I find it very difficult to believe he is shoving here with ATdd, so I want to remove all of those diamond combos leaving his range at nut flush or TT+... I find it hard to believe that anyone would open shove with the nut flush here (but stranger things have happened). I could see TT doing this, as he probably would be afraid of you getting the 4th heart. But most of his combos to me look like JJ+ likely with a heart.

I don't know, it just seems crazy for someone to open shove with a worse pp after you 3! Unless he just absolutely put you on AK and nothing else

I'm probably calling as TT is the only hand I'm realistically afraid of seeing here , because I think most any poker player anywhere is smart enough not to bet the stone cold nuts like this