1/2 late Sat with double straddles and lots of action. UTG posts 4, UTG+1 posts 6 and 3 callers, I call on BTN (265) with T9. Two more callers and UTG+1 (500) raises to 25$. Active loose player V2 (950) calls, drunk guy new (100) to table V3 calls, I call and others fold.

Flop (~118): J95

UTG+1 bets 50, V2 calls, new guy calls, I shove all in for 240. UTG+1 calls, V2 folds, new guy calls. Main pot of like ~400, and side for 340 or so IIRC.

Read is that UTG+1 range is very strong (even though I think his sizing is kind of ridiculous) and he's targeting V2. They have been playing back and forth, with V2 playing very loose. He built his stack off playing suited cards, and if he got a draw he'd raise/get it all in. So I didn't think either had spades, and no clue what hammered guy had. I figured I had a lot of equity so a shove was best? Pre I figured the pot odds were fine to try and catch something good, and post I couldn't see not GII provided my reads were right.

Perfect.

Pre is marginal at best if you think UTG+1's range is pretty strong. Depending on the table dynamics/how the two straddlers defend their straddles, there's a chance the betting gets reopened after you call the 25. Regardless, you're going to take a flop with a pretty small SPR, which is exactly what you don't want with T9s.

Calling here on the basis of pot odds to catch something good is playing flop bingo, which is what the "fish" at 1/2 tables are doing and not a recipe for success. I'd suggest rather than just blindly saying "pot odds, position, pretty cards, I call!" you actually work out what price you're getting to call the 25 compared to how often you do flop something good.

Flop is clearly a shove once we get there.

The straddles were passive, when raised it was AK,broadway pair. I wasn't sure about the pre. I did think once the two behind me didn't raise, I was either ending the action or they would just flat. I think they would have raised prior the 25 from what I had seen.

How to figure out how often T9ss flops something I would play for stacks? Statistics forum? Yeah, I was just thinking I'm getting 4,5-1 or so I'll try to hit something and stack the PFR...

Preflop is not marginal either time.

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man. Can you offer a more than 6 word justification?

Very good odds; action behind unlikely.

We're 15-1 against a flush by the river starting with T9s. It won't be the nuts, and it will be very obvious to everyone.

Calling 25 pf is marginal. you need to flop hard with 10-high, and based on the pf action and the fact that this table is playing wild, this isn't going to be a +EV decision over the long run. Your UTG+1 has you crushed PF. Would have given this one up.

On the flop, shove is right.

PFR had KK, Drunk K9, V2 said he folded QJ. Turn was a 4 of spades and they were drawing dead.

I found a tool called flopzilla to estimate that I get something I want to play for stacks 12.1% of the time (big hands and big combo draws only), or a little over 8-1. I'm getting 5.3-1 pre. So 88% of the time I fold flop. Out of 10 times that 167 in losses. 1.2/10 I play for stacks most of the time I think. Then the question is am I willing to pay 167 over 10 hands to play a single hand for stacks when I hit flop hard. My intuition tells me I am, that the 1.2 hands/10 I think I make more than 167 on average. Not sure how to calculate that though.

As usual thanks for the responses.

Still investigating on my own, just wanted to add in the stuff I'm looking at.

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
Ts9s	20.34%	119,467	6,061
AA-TT,AK,AxQx	41.46%	243,269	12,077
AA-22,AK-A2,KQ,KJ,QJ,QT,JT,ss	18.94%	108,461	11,555
30%	19.26%	109,478	13,286

I unassigned rough ranges for PFR,Loose,Drunk and myself so I'm a 4-1 dog. I found a graphing function below that runs flops to predict equity (saw in another thread this tool is really cool). This flop is actually pretty bad in the top 12% range its the low end, the area under the 10-12% of times is pretty big. This flop is around top 4% out of the 12%, but the next 6-7% provide huge equity or even have my opponents drawing dead essentially. Thinking of it this way, I call the 19 again. Could potentially have won even more if PFR and V2 both GII.

http://propokertools.com/simulations...0%25&s=generic

The issue with preflop is stack depths. This call pre would be great if you were $400+ effective.

On the flop you are a coin flip vs overpairs and your equity improves if you multiple made hands call you. If you end up getting it all in vs a made hand a flush draw that sucks but isn't super likely.