Ok heres the hand:

Folds around to cutoff ($500) who raises to $25. Folds to me in the BB, i flat with 45hh sitting roughly $430 effective. (villan is fairly noobish based on table talk/obv lack of experience/betting patterns ect.)

HU to flop of 4K4 rainbow.

Check, check.

Turn Q.

Villan bets $40, I raise to $103.

Villan quickly asks for a count on the raise and fairly quickly announces all in.

Thoughts?

You call a 12.5bb raise preflop OOP to be heads up holding a superweak hand? Villain has to be more than "fairly noobish" for this to be anywhere near profitable. Villain's range preflop seems to be TT+, AK, and that's about it.

As played, checking the flop is fine. Villain checking behind means one of a few things:

1. Aces, and he is afraid of a 4 (lol).
2. Kings, and he is trapping having flopped the near nuts.
3. Underpair, and he is afraid of the King.
4. AK and he is trapping or is afraid of the 4 (lol).

Turn check/raise is fine I suppose, Villain probably fires here not putting you on a 4 anymore with all of his range except TT and JJ. His bet sizing ($40 into $50) doesn't seem to reveal anything to me.

But then he semi-snaps all-in. Villain's range is now:
QQ (3 combos)
KK (3 combos)
AA (6 possible combos but its really Villain-dependent whether or not any or all of these combos are possible. I'd give Villain about 2 of these)
AK (12 possible combos but again it is really Villain-dependent. We also need to know the suits of the cards on the board to determine whether or not Villain just picked up top pair with the nut flush draw, which would make one of these combos much more likely. I'd give villain about 4 of these combos).

So you're well ahead of somewhere between 0 and 18 combos (but usually around 6 combos), while drawing to a single out versus 6 combos that make a lot more sense.

That said, the pot is $558 and it is only $302 to call.

TL;DR - Villain has a monster somewhere between 25% and 100% of the time, tending towards 50% of the time if Hero's read on Villain is correct.

Conclusion - Call, getting correct odds given the read on the Villain.

I agree on the preflop analysis. Even 200 plus BBs deep, you can't call a 12.5 BB raise OOP HU and it be profitable with that hand. I'm also surprised you checked the turn after he checked behind flop. But you checked turn so that hopefully he would hang himself and now he's doing what you wanted.

I don't agree with the range analysis above vs a noob fish tho. I think the only hand he has that could have you crushed is pocket kings that he would play like this. But I would expect a call of your c/r and not a shove most of the time if he has the boat. I think you're up against big slick, Pocket aces, or another pocket pair under the kings. Sure he could be boated up, but you have to call against a fishy player. What kind of flop were you willing to get it in with when you called 12.5 preflop OOp HU? Against a great or nitty player sure you could get away but not against a noob. Noobs could show up with anything here.

Can you guys elaborate more on how my preflop call not ever being profitable? I'm making the call knowing im HU vs a super weak player that can show up with anything ranging from A10s to AA but most likely 1010, jj, qq, kk, aa, or ak.

My image is pretty tight at this time having only showed down a fullhouse to double my stack through a super drunk fish.

I flat the $25 looking to smash very specific flops. I feel in live low limit, bad players are more than willing to play for stacks w/ top/top hands and of course AA regardless of the board. Given the circumstances and the low stake game, i figure my trips to be ahead of his range MORE then 50% of the time after he ships turn. Yes, QQ and KK are certainly in his range, but knowing from exp how often a player that fits his profile showing obv lack of skill/experience, i have to figure he has AA, AK, and even a KQ/KJ suited type hand a huge % of the time.

Oh, and it was a rainbow board.

Fold pre obviously, and I'd probably fold to his shove too. V has QQ/KK here pretty much 100% of the time and you are only beating AA...unless V is super aggro and normally plays 5/10+ and just dicking around at 1/2, he is probably not raising anything but QQ+ to $25 PF, especially when everyone folded to him. There is no way V checks this flop with AA, but could check it after flopping a boat or seeing a scary overcard when you called his big raise, then hitting a boat on turn.

This is why you should fold pre:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 22.041% 21.81% 00.23% 6723474 69822.00 { 5h4h }
Hand 1: 77.959% 77.73% 00.23% 23958354 69822.00 { QQ+ }

You are hoping to hit the lottery with a drawing hand, except with such a large raise PF it's going to be really expensive to draw and if V holds the Qh-Ah you are drawing even thinner. Holding a PP is much better to call this raise with because if you flop a set you know they're going to stack off with a big pair most of the time, while with SC's you will probably need to see the turn and/or river to make a better hand.

Even with great implied odds with sc's against a fish donk who may stack off extremely light, you are just going to have to c/f to many flops to make pre a profitable call. If you we're ip and V was either very spewy or weak/tight, then you can justify calling this deep and exploiting their weaknesses, but "out of position, out of action". Much rather call with a pp than sc's.

Snap call.

You can't play a hand like 45s and when you hit giant, and disguised, on the flop, expect not to get it in against a weak player.

You can't just put him on the boat automatically. His shoving range is very big here and this hand screams Aces to me.

Follow up with what happened please

When does a V with AA/AK/KQ ever check the flop here? Pretty much never. The way V played this hand just screams QQ/KK.

IMO, this type of fishy $1$2 player tends to over value top pair/good kicker hands as well as AA. Fish also have a high tendency of losing ALOT of value w/ their monster hands and over valuing their one pair hands. I think if he had smooth called my raise of $103, i could more likely put him on a boat. The quick ship seemed like a mindless "i have AA or AK/KQ and hes gonna pay me off for sure!!" shove. Is this logic innacurate?

You'd rather set mine for 2 outs vs flush/straight/trip mining when playing for stacks?

So said every bad player calling with trash out of the blinds. You aren't nearly deep enough here.

OK, agreed. I should have folded pre. The boredom got the best of me

+1. Seem's like good logic to me. Feel like a lot of responses to this thread suffer from MUBS.

The guy flopped trip 4's after calling a 12.5 bb raise. It was a miracle flop and you are looking to get it in at any point this hand against a donk player who is probably putting the hero on something like QJ,KJ,AQ and just shoved his AA/AK.

I repeat - if he has AA or AK and has half a brain, he's betting this flop 100% of the time. It looks like you have a pocket pair and letting you see a free turn card would be stupid unless he flopped a boat. People don't just randomly decide to raise crap hands to $25 with 0 limpers in a $1/2 game very often, playing 250bb deep. A $25 raise is almost always QQ+, usually from fishy players that suck at playing postflop. These are the same players that say "well I'm glad everyone folded, I never win with kings" after their big raise gets no action.

Sounds like you are leveling yourself and finding reasons why V does NOT have KK/QQ when it's pretty obvious that either he does or he's absolutely terrible because QQ is definitely in your $25 PF calling range too.

A set is disguised when you have 44 on a 249 rainbow flop and V is almost guaranteed to stack off on a "safe" looking flop with a big pair. A straight or flush is harder to make, will usually require that you see the turn and/or river, and is going to cost a lot more money to chase the draw. With a PP, you can just call the initial bet and check/fold if you miss.

MUBS does not apply here when V's raising range is almost always QQ+ and maybe AK (doubtful). I can't find any reason for why V would check the flop with AA or AK.

I'm torn on this because of the villain. If he's really a noob that would show up with AK, AQ , or worse here, then you have to call him.

But against a random noobish player, without having seen him do something screwy in a spot like this, I have to default to this vvvv

I'd rather lead out and donk into him on the flop to try to induce a raise from AK (he's never putting you on a 4 here right?). But c/r or c/c on the flop isn't bad either.

Yes. When you set-mine you know immediately if you're going to play the rest of the hand, either you flop your set and look to get the money in ASAP or you don't and you can check/fold / play smallball.

When you play 54s you'll end up flopping draws and have to shovel more money into the pot to get there. Most of the time I expect to be getting bad direct and implied odds to chase those draws, especially with the given stack sizes HU.

Fold preflop.

As played I think you need to get some money in on the flop.

Theres only one overcard thats ever going to come.

This is a tricky spot though as played to be honest.

Heres a reason: bad players check to induce more often EVEN with 1 pair hands. I feel this is very common in live low limit.

I think you're wrong. Only an idiot is checking to induce with one pair while 250bb deep

Redic FPS. Fold this shiite PF so fast your cards catch fire. You are OOP with a hand that will usually flop draws, if anything. Then you hit bingo deep stacked and check twice. Horribad. This is what takes one to Bustoland.

AP, it's probably a fold, but calling isn't horrible.

An idiot for sure. This canadian was annoucing that he will " see your bet and raise you $30 more".

This is 1/2.. Who do you think the common villain is? A genius?

Oh, and I bet the villain doesn't even know he is 250bb deep, or what 250bb means. He just knows he has a lot of money and therefore, is playing "well".

I think you would be suprised how many times the villain shows up with Aces here.

I really want to know what happened...

He shows KK

Never would have guessed...

I guess that is why you fold pre.

It is sort of a cooler in it's own right, as played.

K44, you don't expect to see KK against a 4.. That's sick.

Either way, you don't really get away from trip 4's when you have the most disguised hand against someone who screamed preflop (I have Aces).

Don't let it get to you. Just tighten up your preflop range. You play QQ the same way here and lose

Fold pre no reason to call 12x bb out of position with 45s

Bet the flop I understand your thinking that he will cbet most flops but AK AA KQ are never folding and are going to allow you to value them to the river when possibly folding to a c/r which makes your hand face up.

His check on the flop and ship on your means QQ or KK. Either he was scared of K high flop or hit it huge (since noobs try to slow play and lose value)

AK isn't shipping into a raise. KQ would have cbet flop. His line says your beat which goes back to my advice fold pre and avoid marginal hand traps like this.

I'd laugh if he had A4s which is definitely a possibility as well given his line.