It seems to me that I can always manipulate situations such as the one below to be +EV. But, it seems as though I may be missing something conceptually. Let me know what you think on all streets and/or my overall approach:

1/2 NL, 9 handed

Hero($190): Young, white, mid 20's. Likely TAG image. Have not been at the table more than a few orbits.

Villain(Covers): MAWG, fairly competent player. Pretty fun, talkative, but also not making any noticeable mistakes.

Pre: Hero gets dealt J10 UTG, limps for $2. 2 other limpers, Villain raises in HJ to $8. All previous limpers plus two more come along, 6 total players going to the flop. (I generally play big suited connecters and small to medium pocket pairs this way pre-flop OOP at my local casinos).

Flop($48): KQ6 Checks to Villain, who bets $30. Folds around to Hero, who raises to $80. All others fold to Villain, who tanks for a while before announcing "all-in".

My questions:
- This is a more or less a snap call, correct? Hero needs to call $100 to win $48+$160+$102 = $310, or a total pot of $410. With my hand equity at about 28% (to hit a straight) and pot odds a hair below 25%.

- If this is an automatic call, can such a hand always be manipulated in such a manner by Hero to be +EV. If played as such by Villain, Hero is still getting a small +EV. However, with the fold equity generated by Hero's flop raise, it seems as if such a hand can always be +EV.

Is my thinking totally wrong? Am I missing something? Would you want to play at my table and take my money? Thanks!

[QUOTE=Darnoiah;45813417]

- If this is an automatic call, can such a hand always be manipulated in such a manner by Hero to be +EV. If played as such by Villain, Hero is still getting a small +EV. However, with the fold equity generated by Hero's flop raise, it seems as if such a hand can always be +EV.

QUOTE]

I can't say I 100% understand what you are saying here, but...

On the relevant street, the flop... getting your stack in is clearly -EV... Are you asking is it +EV because you put enough $ in as a bluff such that calling the rest off is +EV?



To simplify what I think you are saying ... look at the turn as a spot in which V always shoves or always folds (which is more than likely the two results)....

So we are effectively shoving here (if we are never folding our bluff-raise)... Is it +EV because you have fold Equity to Shove AI into the pot after V leads $30?

It is like saying ... I can raise to 98bbs with 72o and it makes it +EV for me to call off 2bbs more vs any hand... Thus playing the hand in this manner is +EV

Well, the all-in call is +EV, but the check-raise before it might not be. Depends on your read of villain, what range you give him, and what you think he'll do with that range.

Or, put another way, what were you trying to accomplish with the check-raise to $80? Is he c-betting $30 into 5 opponents with a medium pocket pair? Is he bet-folding AQ/QJ/Q10? What about K10/KJ?

There are two problem spots in this hand, I think:
1. your stack size. $80 is a small check-raise. But it's also big enough to basically pot-commit yourself. If you have $300 preflop, then you can check-raise bigger, and represent a bigger threat.

2. pushing out the other two limpers. Unless you think villain has air and will just fold to your check-raise (possible, but unlikely. Fairly competent players don't typically c-bet into 5 opponents with no equity), your only hope of winning this hand is to hit an ace, a nine, or running hearts. You would like more players in the pot with you when that happens, right? Call the $30 and hope that one or both of them hang around with a hand like AJ, AQ, K9, or Q9. That'll mean (a) the pot will be bigger, (b) you will get to draw for cheaper, (c) villain is more likely to check behind on a brick turn with his medium-strength one pair hands, and (d) when you make your nut straight, someone else might make two pair and be willing to call your shove.

With your stack size, I'd probably just call the flop bet. I'd then probably donk out on any ace, nine, or heart turn. If the turn bricks and he fires $100, you can safely fold.

The answer to your question is no, and the reason is because even though you now have a +EV call of the shove, your original raise was probably -EV. Let's see why.

At the time of your raise, you have $182 left to bet, and the pot is $48. When Villain bets 30 and you make it 80, you are risking 80 to win 78. A number of things could happen here:

1) You could win the pot outright. This shows an immediate profit if you can win the pot about 35% of the time. Personally I doubt that you will, since KQx boards smash a preflop raiser's range, but I don't know. Maybe.

2) Villain could call with a made hand. That's mathematically the same (though not in terms of playing dynamics) as if he'd overbet $80 into the pot (of 48) and you called it. Clearly when phrased that way it is a -EV decision.

3) Villain shoves. When this happens you're calling 102 to win 310, clearly a +EV decision. However, the reason it is +EV is because you have to count the $80 you already put in as dead money. This is only true after you raise, and not before. If Villain open-shoved $182 into the pot of $48, you would obviously fold. So the fact that Villain was able to manipulate you into getting all-in, when taken as a whole from the beginning of the flop action you should not have done so, means you must have made a mistake somewhere. And the mistake was your first flop raise.

4) One of the other Villains in between you and the raiser cold-calls or cold-shoves behind you. You might again conclude that it's +EV to get it in, but only because your $80 is now dead money. The real point is that the presence of other Villains decreases your fold equity (maybe not by very much, but it does).

So overall, you can't just say "it's +EV to call the shove and my raise has fold equity, so I can add the two +EV components to get that it's always +EV". You have to also factor in the massive loss in EV that comes from the times you stick $80 into the pot without fold equity.

EDIT: Was typing when the previous replies went up; looks like we all agree.

Thanks, guys. I am seeing now the mistakes in my thinking. Appreciate the detailed and constructive responses

I really like what SierraDave said about your check raise sizing. While I would not check raise here with 5 people,(I can't tell how many people were after you and before you that is good information to post about.) if you were to check raise you should think about over-betting. A much larger raise say 120$ is much stronger. You are almost pot-committed with the 80$ raise so why not raise more? In this spot you always want the villain to fold rather than call.

As played, you should call. Sierra nailed it. You want other individuals to call, build the pot and hope you hit your draw or gain more outs (hearts). Otherwise it is an easy check/fold. This individual was most likely not going to c-bet 2/3 pot without some form of equity(most of the time, given your description.)

Why can't we just call?

THAT is the +EV play.

Turn a heart and then we can re-think.

im ok preflop but we cant be so aggressive with so many people in the pot.
just flat and hit OTT and give up...

pretty standard i think.

we should call now but we should never have raise it up.

If you expected to get raised, pre is OK I guess. If you hoped to play a limp pot oop to over half the table, yuck. Rather shocked that there's been seven responses without a single "Fold pre" lol.

Not a fan of the check-raise otf. FPS imo, as it got your stack in the middle with jack-high. Better to just check-call or even donk lead (we certainly don't want to check around then bink the turn having missed a whole street of value). Also, do we really want to ISO in this spot? Wouldn't it be better to flat and hope one or more others comes along for better implied odds?