Playing 1-2 nl at my local casino.

Hero BB ($330)
Reg Fish MP ($150)
Villian CO ($390)

So the villian in this hand is a younger guy I had played with 1 other time for about 6-7 hours. We had been next to eachother at the table and ended up chatting a bit. He brought up 2+2 and joked about a couple threads. He seemed to play pretty tight, but we did play 1 hand together.

I raised utg to about 15 with 8 8 and it folded to him in the BB and he called. Flop was 2 5 6 with 2 spades. He checked and I bet 22. He thought for a minute and made it 72. I folded. Later I told him I folded eights and asked if he had had an overpair. He said he didn't. He claimed he had Q 9.

So, on to the hand in question.

Dealt to Hero [Q Q]
folded to MP who calls.
folded to Villian in CO who calls.
button folds
SB calls
Hero raises to $20 in the BB
Reg Fish calls $20
Villian calls $20
SB folds.

*** FLOP *** [3 8 9]
Hero bets $45
Reg fish folds
Villian raises to $135
Hero ??

So, my hand is pretty face-up.

I know the Villian thinks I have an overpair.
He knows that I know my hand looks like an overpair.
I know the Villian is capable of semi-bluffing in this spot.
I also think he is capable of doing this with mostly air.
I know the Villian knows I know all this. So, it's likely he would probably do this with sets or two pair.

Hero ????

Combo draw imo. I would 3x based on that read, while ahead.

can I ask what you thought when you lead the flop? did you contemplate how you would react to a raise? did you consider a c/r? the bet sizing itself seems okay, but did you design it to get action or to get folds? it sounds like you wanted to end the hand here, because you've gotten yourself in quite the predicament. anything from here will be crossing the line from medium pot to large pot, and you're somewhat deep and holding a very vulnerable hand.

I think if anything, you may have just leveled yourself. you decided to build a big pot pre, lead the flop on a connecting/wet board, and now have reason to fear any monster in V's hand. as played I'm folding, I don't like flipping for huge pots and that's best case scenario. as played I'm also punching myself in the groin for not thinking before I slide out a c-bet.

meh fold. in the hand you discussed, villain played well, his hand had tons of equity.

in this hand, any bluffs he has may have tons of equity. we only have 30bbs committed, seems silly to stack off 200 more with 1 pair and no redraws.

he is IP and played this hand well, his sizing putsus in a gross spot. unlucky.

Agree with checking flop. Does he put in a raise with 88,99 pre? Prolly. His range should be weighted to draws on this board and since it sounds like you give him a fair amount of air I don't mind shipping and riding some variance.

Man, leading the flop out of position dictates on how you will play the rest of this hand out. I would have preferred a check/raise or a check/call to assess things on 4th street, but too late for that now. I PERSONALLY would call here and focus on my read and see what happens on 4th street. Just for the simple fact, I took such an aggressive approach in this spot. It gives me the option to Jam the turn if I get a good read he's on a draw or not too easy with my call. His holding isn't super strong for the simple fact he was priced in pre-flop to call so he might have something like a Nut Flush draw. If your in real trouble, hopefully you'll get a read on the turn, then you can fold. However, I feel more comfortable with my reads and my gut, so the safer route would be to fold in this spot for the moral majority.

Dude wtf. Reread before you post.

Ship imo. His range is more weighted towards draws than any made hands (which are only top2/sets) and you have already mentioned that he probably thinks of you as a weak-TAGfish who will fold an OP to a flop semi-bluff raise without much thought.

Jeez. Also it's good to not discuss poker strategy websites at the table.

+1

Talking about poker strategy sites at the table is really -ev for your bottom line

ship it, he got you to fold best before and is trying to push.

Let's assume for a min we just called the Villian's raise.

We would have a pot of about $330 with $175 left, out of position, and covered by villian.

*** FLOP *** [3 8 9]

*** TURN *** [ 3 ]


Hero ???

Donk, C/C, C/R ?

SPR is 1:2 I think I'd just ship here and put him to the decision. If he outflopped you with 89, he's now been counterfeited. If he's on T J he just lost two outs and he has only one street to improve.

If you check, he can check behind and see the river for free. I don't want that.

as played shove turn, plus you still have 1 out lol.

Ship it on the flop. Agree with marsaraksh. Let's look at the scenarios.

If he has you beat, he does. After folding the last hand, I think you have to make a stand with what is probably a thinking player to let him know he can't run over you. He'll play you more straight forward after this knowing that a bluff on the flop is going to cost him. If he has a FD, he'll just take the free card on the turn if you call and won't pay you off on the river. If you shove on the flop, he'll call allowing you to get money from him.

Grunching.

Villain probably raises 88/99 the vast majority of the time. He doesn't have 83 or 93. That leaves 98 and 33 as his only value hands. There's a ton of draws out there, and you have blockers for a good number of them. I'm rolling with this hand.

That turn of a 3 is a beautiful card. I lead, all-in.

Gosh that turn card is beautiful. Never ever ever ever folding. He raises 88-99 probably preflop, now way you are beat imo. Get it in and expect +ev results

This is all really bad advice.

So in no way is your hand face up, you have fired a pretty standard C-bet in a raised pot on a drawy board. unless you never do this with unmade hands you range is/should be way wider than QQ+. if villian had a monster and though youwere a good TAG he would probably lead into you to get raised by your overpairs and get it in.

As played Villian has rased you 90 more to win 150 so he has given himself an ok price and he might have sorts of draws including A3d, further he has shown he will play his draws agressively and you have shown you will get out of the way. So villian's thought process is probably something like i have a good amount of equity if I am behind and hero has shown I have a good amount of fold equity so even if I'm behind I can raise profitably.

I'd shove and feel pretty sure that I'm ahead. I don't like smothing because that actualy way more defines our hand and there are way to many bad cards on the turn to come that will make it really hard to call if he donks into us.

This isn't a leveling war fwiw.

combo value hands are 33 and 98 unless villian is weak-tight in which case include 88 and 99. Value hand combos are pretty small compared to amount of draws he could have, so pretty easy all in on the flop.

Ship on flop and count three seconds.... If you don't hear an immediate call, YAY!! No set...