Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
Check flop.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
You're gonna get semi-bluffed all day vs good players. Our equity really isn't that great on this board.
Quote:
Originally Posted by niceguy22
If theyre semi bluffing that much (not saying they are) then its a super easy shove
So I think villain and myself are both interested in how he should be playing the range that I listed above.
If he were to raise all 35 combos listed above, we could shove with 45% equity vs. that range and have an +EV of $54 based on the following:
Preflop pot: $55
Flop pot: $40 bet + $40 call + $140 raise [+ $150 when villain calls shove] = $370
Hero's remaining stack: $250
EV = (0.55*-250) + (0.45*(55+40+40+140+150)) = [-137.5 + 191.25] = +$53.75
JJ has the highest equity vs. any of the premium pairs. The only way we could be doing better is to have the J
which ups our equity to 47%. AA-QQ is nearly a 10% equity dog to JJ at 36%, so we are effectively near the top of our range with JJ (TT performs similarly at 45%).
The question is two-fold:
1) What should villain be doing with the range I provided?
Based on the answers thus far, semi-bluffing seems like the obvious choice since we have no calling range beside sets and A
K
/A
Q
/A
J
which is too few combos since we are folding 30/42 (71%) of our c-bet combos (assuming I open all combos of 77-99)
2) How many semi-bluffs do we need to remove before shoving is -EV?
The worst performing combos vs. a range of JJ+ are the following:
TT (6 combos): 35%
T9s (3 combos): 41.6%
K
Q
: 43.5%
- - - - -
A
2
-A
4
(3 combos): 44%
Q
J
: 47%
K
J
: 49%
If we remove TT (6 combos) our equity drops to 39.2% and our EV drops to:
EV = (0.608*-250) + (0.392*(55+40+40+140+150)) = [-137.5 + 191.25] = +$15
If we remove TT and T9s (9 combos) our equity drops to 36.1% and our EV drops to:
EV = (0.639*-250) + (0.361*(55+40+40+140+150)) = [-159.75 + 153.4] = -$6.3
If we remove TT, T9s and K
Q
(10 combos) our equity drops to 35.7% and our EV drops to:
EV = (0.643*-250) + (0.357*(55+40+40+140+150)) = [-160.75 + 151.75] = -$9
So it looks like the cut-off point is the bottom 6/35 combos I had come up with before our shove is -EV.
My brain is a little fried after working this out but I think the takeaway is villain should call with TT, T9s and K
Q
and can raise the rest of the range giving him 15 value combos and 13 semi-bluffs.