9 handed (soft but spewy local private game game)

UTG straddle $5, 3 calls to me OTB 4s4d I call, SB/BB calls straddle checks

Flop ($35 pot)

Qh - 4c - 2s

checks to me I bet $25, SB(nitty reg) calls we go H/U to the turn with what I thought was < less $300 eff (Villain had at least $450 eff to start hand I did not see the black chip)

Turn ($85 pot)
Qh-4c-2s-As

SB checks, I bet $50 he C/R to $125 I call

River ($335 pot)
Qh-4c-2s-As-5h

Villain leads all in for $190 ish....


in game I thought after he C/R'd that he only had $60 or so left so I got a little "Fancy play" syndrome by not putting gii... I told myself to call and allow him to bluff missed rivers(which this guys almost NEVER has) or worse value hands. Then when he had almost $200 I realized I am probably beat but what combos of 3x does he have and could he ever have A2/A4/Axhh/2-2-2 I should never fold which I did not...

Any thoughts on all streets TYVM

I see no 3s in a nitty reg's range to take this line. Definitely calling river and expect to see a set of 2s most often, occasional weird 2p or overset. If he somehow had a 3, we need to re-label him.

53 is the only hand a tight player is repping w this line. I would have no problem giving him 53s from the SB in a limped straddled pot. For $190 against this line in a limped pot, I'd prob tank a bit and flip a coin, hoping to trust whatever info I had on this guy and going with it.

Too soon for results, OP. Give it at least 24 hours.

His value is 3 combos of 53s. You block the one combo of 43ss. For a bluff he could have 65ss. That’s 1 combo. Think 22 would usually raise bigger on turn. Maybe you give him half a combo of worse value? Guess it’s a close spot but probably a call given you have the 4s.

I could see A3ss who just turned a ton of equity check raising turn along with the other combo of 53ss. Although A3ss might be more likely to call turn and play rivers.

That’s only 2 combos of value though so I don’t think a call here is ever that terrible.