1/2 NL $200 max buy in

This might have been the best 1/2 game I've ever played in at this particular casino. Action is rampant, table is playing absurdly loose, $25 raises are getting called 4 and 5 ways preflop. Hero just won a $800 pot when I flopped a boat and got called down by a guys trips.

Villain in the hand is an older guy. Somewhat on the tight side but is capable of bluffing. Got caught bluffing a little while ago and has not been mixing it up much since. Seems to be getting his money in good. Not calling with draws unless he's getting the right price, etc.


Stacks
Hero $810
Villain $350

Preflop

Villain limps in EP, I overlimp with Q9. Someone in LP raises to $7, 6 callers.


Pot $40
Flop

A99


Villain checks, hero bets $35, everyone else folds, Villain calls.


Pot $110
Turn J

A99J


Villain checks fairly quickly, hero bets $100, villain snap calls.


Pot $310
River 6

A99J6


Villain instantly moves all in for $150



Hero?????

If true snap call.

There is something incredibly fishy about this line, and I just don't see what you can beat. With the way how this table is going I wouldn't be surprised that he had AA in this situation.

He either put you on a flush draw or a 9, and he's obviously confident enough that he can beat those. If he had a 9 he would've raised the turn. Unless you have a super laggy image or he's just super super tilted I'd fold this.

elcebro, doesn't that mean he should fold because he's so strong?

I'm at my ubunutu notebook, can't run a pokerstove, but because his range includes AJ and worse 9, we a priced in to call.

Can't really call unless you think villain is capable of turning AXss into a bluff. I doubt he's ever folding KQcc/KJcc/KTcc/QTcc/T8cc on the turn, although he might dump T8cc on the flop. I'd be slightly surprised based on action timing, but he could potentially show up with A9/J9. I doubt this is ever the case 9 that isn't boated up.

You are getting 3:1 here, I can't fold to this. Call and take a note.

Anyway calling if he hit it isn't even that bad because he still wouldn't have gotten implied odds to draw. At least thats what I tell myself at night.

How do you think the villain views near pot sized bets. In live play people sometimes view the size of the bet alone and not its relationship to the size of the pot. It is possible that he is just putting you on a good ace especially if he also has a nine. Look to see him with 79+ as far as nines go, two pair part of the time, and missed draw part of the time. I would guess 9x more than the other two. Don't know if this helps but that would be my thought process partially.

This is actually very true and makes me reconsider what i said above. This is a really tough spot. Now that I think about it again if he had aces he would Hollywood a little bit for sure.

This is an easy fold imo

Also, he can never have AA here because he limp-called preflop and he isnt capable of something like that. I cant really give him credit for a nine because he would have lead the flop himself. Check-call, check-call, lead river at these levels is always either the nuts or a bluff. Getting 3-1, it was a really tough spot and I figured I wouldnt look or feel bad by looking him up since if he had a flush he played the hand so poorly.


We are on the same page

this is why its an easy fold. he never has AA. he almost never has a 9 (and if he does, it's A9 or J9).

this is either a flush or bluff, but since the flush hits his missed draw range is virtually eliminated. and on a board like this, what would he really be trying to push you off of?

This villain is capable of bluffing and I felt like he may have been getting frisky with me since I had just won a big pot. I agree with what you are saying, but if he had a flush he played it sooo poorly and I think(thought) he's a better player than that. His range is only 1 of 2 things(flush or bluff) and I was getting 3 to 1. So mathematically it is the correct call. He could have easily had a worse nine and played it the same way. He is also capable of turning AJ with J into a bluff. I think it's really close.

Fold IMO, his range is so full of flush the way the hand went.

How so? He called 2 PSB with a paired board.

This is what made me feel that his range could include alot of worse nines or two pair type hands. I think 97, 98, 910, AJ all play the same way. I HATE the way he played his flush draw. I think the fact that he was getting ready to go played a role in his decision to gamble, he left right after he scooped the pot.