I've been trying to experiment with getting some value out of my busted draws by betting the river when it seems appropriate but I still don't have the confidence to do it very often and struggle recognizing when the board texture may dictate it. Here are two hands from last night (back to back nonetheless) where I had the opportunity to bet a busted draw on the river. I bet one and checked one.

1:30am last night. Tables are breaking and playing short handed. Our table is temporarily 6 handed. At full tables I normally raise 80% of the hands I play but at short and passive tables I often limp along with the bottom of my raising range. Table is passive and limp happy and I am the most aggressive player there preflop so I'm not worried about being raised here so my questions are concerned after the flop.

Hand 1: Effective stacks of $150. Hero covers. V in this hand has been bleeding chips for the two hours he's been here. Aside from me, he is raising hands the second most at the table but doesn't play very well post flop. Looks annoyed since he is stuck for a few hundred and not having a great time.

Hero limps in MP with Q9
CO limps
V raises to $12 in SB
Hero sees BTN cutting out calling chips and calls $12
CO calls $12

Pot: ~$35

Flop: 5 K 6

V bets $15
Hero calls $15
BTN folds

I am ranging V on Kx mostly, as well as PP's from QQ-88 and possibly a few combos of flush draws like AJcc, ATcc.

Pot: ~$65

Turn: A

V bets $20
Hero calls $20

Getting direct odds of 4:1 on the call, I elect to just call rather than raise. My reasoning was, V's turn bets seems weak. I don't think he has an Ace, and even his Kx combos are being discounted in my range analysis. I call with the intention of potting the river if he checks to me and I miss my draw as now I can represent Kx as well as AX that was drawing on the flop and picked up equity on the turn.

Pot: ~$105

River: 8

V checks fairly quickly
Hero confidently tosses out four green chips ($100) after 2-3 seconds
V goes into the tank

Thoughts?

- - - - -

Hand 2: The very next hand. V in this hand was the CO from the previous hand. Looks like your typical mid-20's rec player. Nothing special. Probably has too wide of a preflop range, limping and calling raises alike. Effective stacks of $200.

2 limps in EP
Hero limps in LP with A6
V limps on BTN
SB and BB complete

Pot: $12

Flop: T 8 4

Checks to hero
Hero bets $10
V calls $10

Pot: $32

Turn: 8

Hero thinks about betting here but checks after a few seconds
V thinks for 5 seconds before betting $20
Hero calls $20

I know I'm not getting the expressed odds here, but I consider my Ace outs live vs. a likely one-pair holding, and think I may also be able to bet V off a weaker hand OTR if I brick. Looking back, I probably should have bet the turn as well but I got cold feet

Pot: $70

River: Q

Hero checks
V checks

Hero kicks himself for not betting a pretty solid river card. Thoughts? I think these two hands show how big of a difference position makes and how it affects your psychology when deciding whether to bluff. I think a pot-sized bet on the river would have easily been enough to get V off of his hand. And the more I think about it, bluff bet/folding on the river should be incredibly easy because if you do get raised, it's pretty impossible for a worse hand to bluff raise you there

Hand 1:

Open limping Q9s is not a great thing. In this hand, I think you should be bluffing the turn for a couple reasons. First, the A is a good scare card for the range you put your opponent on. Second, you have equity when called. Third, your opponent has to face the possibility of a potential river bet, so it's very difficult for him to call with TT or KQ. Fourth, flatting the turn tends to eliminate a lot of strong hands from your range. Fifth, villain's betting line is pretty weak, so we have good reason to expect a fold.

As played, a bluff on the river still seems good.

Hand 2:

I would raise this hand generally, but especially in the CO to try to buy the button. Agree you should fire a second barrel on the turn. As played, I don't see a bluff working all that often.

hand 1

i would raise OTT, especially if you think range him with mostly Ks. this is 2 fold. 1) if he's going to get stubborn and you miss, you can barrel him OTT and OTR
2) you have no hand right now, i'd rather take down the pot now, rather than wait until our FD hits or misses (plus, when it hits, does he really pay us off)?

AP: i think OTR bluff is still effective, but you might get looked up sometimes if some Vs realize people will bluff rivers with missed FDs

hand 2
i'd probably bet turn on this hand too. we have a ton of equity if he has any 1P hand other than AT because we will pair our A sometimes. Also could knock some better Ax hands that have no pair but are beating us out if we bet here.

AP: kinda depends on hand 1, if V called and we showed down with a busted FD or not. if we did, then i would not bet this river.
if we did not show down in hand 1, i may try to steal again

I'd still be raising pre despite being short-handed. Not getting raised behind you isn't a good reason to limp imo, I want the initiative in the hand.

In #1, I'd raise ott and if V seems like he's hanging on, follow through with a river barrel.

In #2, I don't think the Q does much. Tx isn't auto-folding because an over hit ott. OTT, set a good price to draw, it also acts as a double barrel, but I'd be checking most brick rivers. If you set a good turn price it isn't a losing spot to c/f when you miss otr. The thing I'd make sure to do though, bet an Ace river. I said the Q won't mkae Tx snap-fold, if an Ace hits too, V won't know how you have Ax and you can get value there.

i´d call turn on hand 1 getting great odds. once he checks bluffing seems good, but you´re betting way too much. you don´t try to get him to fold Ax, you aren´t really trying to fold him of Kx, you are targeting a range of mostly pp and random bluffs which somehow are ahead of you. ~45 should do the trick imo, also looks like what he might feel a valuebet looks like.

hand 2 is a mandatory bet ott.

Villain folded Hand 1 after 30 seconds if that changes anyone's decision regarding Hand 2