Hero [covers] has a tight, winning image at the table. 30s WG no glasses or hood. I'm playing far less hands than anyone else at the table and haven't shown down anything while being up about $100 or so. I haven't limped at all and only 3!'d once with AJs OTB when a position aware CO opened.

V [$161] is a 30s WG with ear buds in. He's tighter than most others at the table but still a bit too loose imo. His blind defense is rather high. I view him as having somewhat of a clue and not just a normal LP calling station.

OTTH

UTG limps, folds to hero in MP2 who raises to $15 with AJ, folds to V in sb who calls, UTG folds,

Pot: $34
Board: Q55

V checks, Hero bets $20, V calls

Pot: $74
Board: Q556

V checks, Hero bets $50, V check raises AI for $76 more, Hero gives real serious consideration to calling...

Curious on everyone's thoughts. Does anyone like the 2nd barrel on the turn or was that a mistake? I fired again on the turn because after checking twice, I think V's range is heavily weighted towards mid pocket pairs, medium strength queens, and flush/combo draws. A second bullet should ideally get a lot of that range to fold given my image and V's non-drooler status.

The check raise really only narrows his range a little imo as I think V folds his small/mid pocket pairs and some weak Queens. I don't think V is likely to shove with something like AQ/KQ because he's only going to get called by worse. I think he's in a shove/fold situation with any hand he continues with and his range is heavily weighted towards draws. I also don't have the A

Anyway, I took a long time to make a decision with just Ace high, but i'm curious to hear everyone's analysis.

The 2nd barrel wins a lot more pots than the first one so I like it here.

Here you have to call off $76 to win $250. You need to have about 23% equity to call.

I think that if V is a non-drooler then he's really only doing this with his strong hands because he knows the pot odds are just too sweet on the turn for most people to fold (which is why you are pondering a call with A-high here). He might have exactly 7 8 but even that's iffy unless he's in F-it-all mode. I think most of his flush draws check-raise the flop, not the turn when you're already pot-committed.

I don't know if I'd be able to do it in game but I think the right play is a fold.

I do not really understand the turn bet.

I don't know what hands you put V on that you consider a call. Like if he ever bluffs at all, sure, whatever. But what does he have?

I think there are actually quite a few hands V can have in this spot that we beat:

AThh,A9hh,A8hh,A7hh,A4hh,A3hh,A2hh
78hh,98hh,T9hh

low chance but possibly:

KTs, K9s, 78s no hearts


I bet the turn because I think there are hands that are currently beating me that I can fold out. More specifically, medium pocket pairs and weak queens. It might also fold out some of the non-nut flush draws.

No way you can call here. You said he's a bit loose, so he has some 5xs combos, AQ, KQ, 66, you have close to no equity vs that range. Even if he ships every flush draw on the turn in addition, I don't think you can call. Flop bet is alright, check turn.

I don’t like the turn bet. He called the flop which should give you an idea that he may have hit the board or maybe has a small pocket pair.

I think he’s playing his hand face up, checking to the aggressor. You keep throwing money in and on the turn he makes a play.

There are a lot of hands in his range that have you beat at this point.

I would lay it down.

I don't like a cbet on the flop personally, you have a lot more air with better chances to improve than AJo. I hate the turn bet more.

As played fold. You're dead or drawing to 3 outs vs most of his range & when ahead he has solid equity vs your hand, but that's gonna me rare. I'd expect most fd to just check raise given his stack size.

otf seems really std, tho i'd use 1/3 on this board texture vs positions.

turn seems quite meh, quite a bad card to barrel. also not very great either since the 2/3 otf somewhat condenses his range to hands that wont fold here

This is the only consideration. While it is possible that he could have complete air worse than Hero's, it isn't likely he'll have it 24% of the time in this situation. Keep in mind that we lose to AK and all pocket pairs. I don't care if he showed up this time with A9o, calling is a -EV play.

lol

results:

Think we should size differently. $15 flop, $35-40 turn sets up a much better river sizing whether bluffing or value.

I don't like the turn bet but moreso because it isn't a good barrel card for us. We needed a card T or higher to go again here IMO and then maybe set up a 3 barrel (although stacks aren't really deep enough for that and trying to move people off top pair at 1/2 is generally torching $).

I don't think there is any way you can call here as you could be drawing stone dead. You only beat flush draws which, given you hold a heart, there are less combos out there.

AP I fold.