Looking to improve play - is this one of those spots where I can bluff credibly? Starting stack sizes are approximate.
-V1 is a dealer at the cardroom that is playing after his shift. Plays recreationally here and there. Most likely understands Hero's image.
-Hero is most likely seen as a tight/TAG player.
SB: V1 ($380) - Straightforward 30s WM
Cutoff: Hero ($350) - Low-stakes (1/2, 1/3) tight/TAG, mid 30s AM
Preflop:
Folds to Hero
Hero opens 8
6
to $10 (standard open size for Hero)
V1 3! to $25
Hero calls.
Flop($52): K
J
4
V1 checks
Hero bets $25, V1 calls
Turn($102): K
J
4
A
V1 checks
Hero checks
River($102): K
J
4
A
Q
V1 bets $30
Hero action?
Thoughts:
1. Based on history and current session, assumption is that V1 will only 3! AK, QQ+ (especially against tight Hero).
2. Flop bet because: (1) No equity moving forward (2) Thought was that V1 cbets AA and AK on flop and checks KK and QQ - $25 may actually fold out QQ 75% of the time (assumption). Plan was to basically fold to any sizeable turn/river bet.
3. River feels like a blocker bet. There is a <1% chance V1 has a T in his range (very confident of this).
4. My read on V1 by River was that he had QQ or KK.
5. Can I raise river to represent a T? Am I correct in thinking that if Hero had AT, KT, QT, JT, TT, it would be played the same way up to the river (JT, TT might check back flop, QT probably bets turn) - Hero can credibly have AT, KT?
6. How much can I raise river so that I represent a T and fold out a set? I was thinking of bumping it up to $125. I was worried he would be stubborn and wouldn't fold a set.
Thanks.