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<img /2 nl Can this play ever be +ev? <img /2 nl Can this play ever be +ev?

11-05-2010 , 10:14 AM
I was playing live last night at Palm Beach Kennel Club, $1/2nl. I was up about $200 from my bi and had a good table image (friendly, joking...) And good reads on most other players. We'd been together for about 3 hours as a newly opened table, and it was an ideal table. Then, a real jerk (youngish guy) sat down and bought in for $100, got stacked, re-bought and then built up to about $300 when this hand came up.

I have KhQh in mid position ($500 or so) and call a $12 raise from player on my right ($75). One other caller who has position (maybe $200). Flop Q105r. Original raiser bets $25, leaving herself maybe $40 behind. I basically know she has an overpair. But, the jerk was watching, and I felt I might be able to advertise I'd be willing to play at top pair good kicker type hand for a big pot and then try to trap him later. So I slide out a stack of $100...Plus, I felt I had the other guy beat, and might take a nice side pot if he called...

Anyway, other guy think, but folds, and she has aces and the river K is meaningless, I lose the pot, but mission accomplished.

My question is, is this type of "meta" play +ev? Would you sort of voluntarily risk these types of pots to win future pots?

Thanks
<img /2 nl Can this play ever be +ev? Quote
11-05-2010 , 10:20 AM
River K is meaningless? Doesn't two pair beat 1 pair?
<img /2 nl Can this play ever be +ev? Quote
11-05-2010 , 10:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by smallfish69
River K is meaningless? Doesn't two pair beat 1 pair?
youve obviously never played at palm beach kennel club. aces arent allowed to lose to anything.


but yeah op, was the board paired on the turn or something?
<img /2 nl Can this play ever be +ev? Quote
11-05-2010 , 11:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by smallfish69
River K is meaningless? Doesn't two pair beat 1 pair?
Sorry, turn was another 10, so her aces up was good. But I was referring to my "advertising to the jerky guy that I was "willing" to "overplay" top pair. I know raising a shortie all in when I'm likely behind is -ev, but was hoping that would make him more willing to play hard at me light and trap him later...
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11-05-2010 , 11:35 AM
Uhmmm, what are you doing????????????? Usually assessing the EV of the hand is better against the woman´s hand range not what you think someone might see and how they would react? It is so hard to actually hit a hand in hold´em that the chance of both players hitting strong is so rare. You raised top pair good kicker chances are when you raise villian and he can call your raise he will have a hand that beats that hand that you would stack anyways without any previous history. If I thought someone saw me capable of raising top pair i would bluff more.... wait this is just bad it looks like you think you have the best hand against a short stack not that you are overplaying top pair. If I can´t get TPGK in good against the maniacs at my table i´m doing something wrong anyways.

BTW this is probably a fold PF against the nitty lady because I assume she doesn´t raise much.
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11-05-2010 , 11:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by schlep
Uhmmm, what are you doing????????????? Usually assessing the EV of the hand is better against the woman´s hand range not what you think someone might see and how they would react? It is so hard to actually hit a hand in hold´em that the chance of both players hitting strong is so rare. You raised top pair good kicker chances are when you raise villian and he can call your raise he will have a hand that beats that hand that you would stack anyways without any previous history. If I thought someone saw me capable of raising top pair i would bluff more.... wait this is just bad it looks like you think you have the best hand against a short stack not that you are overplaying top pair. If I can´t get TPGK in good against the maniacs at my table i´m doing something wrong anyways.

BTW this is probably a fold PF against the nitty lady because I assume she doesn´t raise much.
The woman was fairly young, and had dusted off 2+ buy-ins, she was a payoff wizard, and so I didn't mind calling there...plus there was the other guy in the hand (not the jerk). But the jerk was def paying attention.

But, I appreciate your comment to play the hand at ...errr...hand as opposed to playing now in the hopes that someone notices a suspect play.

I guess I'm trying to employ the strategy of "using chips as tools to make more chips..."...
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11-05-2010 , 12:17 PM
Sounds like you let this guy tilt you, and now you're so focused on him you're turning spewy.

As for the hand in question, calling a short-stack's raise for 1/6 of her stack with a trouble hand is -EV. And trying to set up meta like this is also -EV unless you are both regs. Yes you set up a table image, but your chance of exploiting it much in this session is slim. If you are playing a tough table with lots of regs, this sort of thing might be good for down the road, but at 1/2, just make the most +EV play every hand.
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11-05-2010 , 02:24 PM
+EV would be raising draws, bottom pair, gutshots, things that he could get you to fold by bluff raising air. Stacking off with top pair then becomes +EV.
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11-05-2010 , 07:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
Sounds like you let this guy tilt you, and now you're so focused on him you're turning spewy.

As for the hand in question, calling a short-stack's raise for 1/6 of her stack with a trouble hand is -EV. And trying to set up meta like this is also -EV unless you are both regs. Yes you set up a table image, but your chance of exploiting it much in this session is slim. If you are playing a tough table with lots of regs, this sort of thing might be good for down the road, but at 1/2, just make the most +EV play every hand.
OK, good advice. Thanks.
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11-05-2010 , 08:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by measurecutcurse
My question is, is this type of "meta" play +ev?
No.

Dumping 3-4 hours of profit to make a point to a 1/2 player who might not even be paying that much attention is always -EV.
<img /2 nl Can this play ever be +ev? Quote
11-05-2010 , 10:28 PM
Listen to Venice.

Also, calling pre here is pretty bad without strong reads Villain is opening light.

Position is over rated.
<img /2 nl Can this play ever be +ev? Quote
11-05-2010 , 11:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by measurecutcurse
OK, good advice. Thanks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by quesuerte
Listen to Venice.

Also, calling pre here is pretty bad without strong reads Villain is opening light.

Position is over rated.
these guys are spot on here. def a fold pre. It's very hard to make playing a hand like KQ for a raise into a +EV scenario...even for meta purposes. I find many live players don't remember from one hand to the next anyway.
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11-05-2010 , 11:47 PM
you're just leveling yourself here.
<img /2 nl Can this play ever be +ev? Quote
11-05-2010 , 11:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mp_all_in
these guys are spot on here. def a fold pre. It's very hard to make playing a hand like KQ for a raise into a +EV scenario...even for meta purposes. I find many live players don't remember from one hand to the next anyway.
wow you're a nit, you fold KQ to a raise?!?


The only reason you can even consider folding here is that the raisers stack is very small...
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11-06-2010 , 12:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by masaraksh
wow you're a nit, you fold KQ to a raise?!?


The only reason you can even consider folding here is that the raisers stack is very small...
Yeah, I fold it all the time. I doubt I'm missing much but I could be wrong. Of course I'm speaking in general. For me, KQ in cash games has more downside than upside.
<img /2 nl Can this play ever be +ev? Quote
11-06-2010 , 06:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by schlep
Uhmmm, what are you doing????????????? Usually assessing the EV of the hand is better against the woman´s hand range not what you think someone might see and how they would react? It is so hard to actually hit a hand in hold´em that the chance of both players hitting strong is so rare. You raised top pair good kicker chances are when you raise villian and he can call your raise he will have a hand that beats that hand that you would stack anyways without any previous history. If I thought someone saw me capable of raising top pair i would bluff more.... wait this is just bad it looks like you think you have the best hand against a short stack not that you are overplaying top pair. If I can´t get TPGK in good against the maniacs at my table i´m doing something wrong anyways.

BTW this is probably a fold PF against the nitty lady because I assume she doesn´t raise much.


I somewhat agree with most of that^, but wat?

my friend was playing today and had 69 on a 7 8 10 flop. other player had J 9. Your assertion is flawed, sir.
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11-06-2010 , 06:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mp_all_in
Yeah, I fold it all the time. I doubt I'm missing much but I could be wrong. Of course I'm speaking in general. For me, KQ in cash games has more downside than upside.
I wouldn't say that. KQ in MP against a tight (you put her on an overpair as soon as she bet flop, so she must be a rock!) short stacked EP raiser has more downside than upside.
<img /2 nl Can this play ever be +ev? Quote
11-06-2010 , 08:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mp_all_in
Yeah, I fold it all the time. I doubt I'm missing much but I could be wrong. Of course I'm speaking in general. For me, KQ in cash games has more downside than upside.
KQ is a perfectly good hand as a raising hand, but not as a calling hand.
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11-06-2010 , 09:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Davino
I somewhat agree with most of that^, but wat?

my friend was playing today and had 69 on a 7 8 10 flop. other player had J 9. Your assertion is flawed, sir.
Flopping a straight with a 1 gapper is about 1% and a 2 gapper is slightly less .065%.
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11-06-2010 , 10:06 AM
Nothing wrong with preflop. KQs is not as bad a trouble hand as advertised.

On the flop, I'm not sure why you're so certain that the $75 shortstack player has an overpair. The board is Q-high, that means there's only two of these. (Set of Q's or T's also obviously possible). I honestly see no problem with playing for stacks with the shortie here with TPGK, they will show up with JJ, AK, QJ type hands all the time.
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11-06-2010 , 10:31 AM
Fail. people dont pay enough attention at 1-2... no meta game nec. I don't even like a call pre from a girl with her stack size because your setting yourself to up to pay her off...when you hit and wasting money the other 70+% of the time. 1-2 has 283979744 better spots than this.
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11-06-2010 , 10:58 AM
The "better spot" concept is a silly one because we play to make +EV plays, not to sit and wait for higher +EV ones. Even if this were -EV, it can't possibly be so by more than a handful of cents considering we have TPGK against an assumably bad player with a 37xBB stack and dead money in the pot.
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11-06-2010 , 11:23 AM
Just an assumption but fairly common in live play if we were to count how many times some people raise it would come out to 4% fairly often. Not counting the times that they choose to limp re-raise AK, KK, AA. The problem is calling the 6xbb raise knowing that you are stacking off if you hit top pair for 37bb a relatively small error turned into a big one.
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11-06-2010 , 12:08 PM
Why does this thread continue to assume that this person has to have AA or KK here? We're always losing on this flop to a person with a 37xBB stack? Really?
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11-06-2010 , 12:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Redsaddict
youve obviously never played at palm beach kennel club. aces arent allowed to lose to anything.


but yeah op, was the board paired on the turn or something?

lol I thought this was OP for a moment and actually believed this, I'm such a fish



and no, you're way leveling yourself, it's not like the young kid is gonna stack off with AK on KT3 when you have 33 JUST because you made this play and thinks now KQ is in your range.

However, I don't see how you can know she has an overpair when there are only 7 combos of them left and she has 20 BBs, in which case I think your play is fine, just not your logic
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