1/2 NL: Calling with a gut-shot on the flop
11-14-2011
, 09:22 PM
Recently played a hand where I felt it made a good sense to call with a gut shot draw on the flop. Basically I made a straight on the turn and won a big pot. People on the table criticized me for the play, and I didn't say a word then, but I really thought it was a justifiable play when I made the call. I'd like to know your opinions on this...
1/2NL $200max buy-in
Hero sat down about an hour ago. Lost and won small pots with straight-forward plays. (~$230)
Villan 1 looked fishy and plays a wide range. Seems to call with a marginal hand. (~$350)
Villan 2 is a reg, played against him in a couple of sessions, a typical TAG who bets his strong hands well. (~$500)
Villan 3 seemed solid, but no read (~$600).
Preflop:
There were ~three limpers before me, including Villan 1. I have 7
5 on CO and call.
Villan 2 on SB completes.
Villan 3 on BB raises to $12.
Everyone except one player calls. (All other villans are in)
Flop: (pot = $60)
Q
6
3
Villan 2 donks out for $20
Villan 3 folds instantly (probably had AK?)
Villan 1 calls $20
Hero ???
The pot was now $100, giving me 5:1 odds to call. There was nobody else to act behind me. I have a gut shot for a nut straight, backdoor flush draw, and position on both Villan 1 and 2. Also, both villans covered me. I figured either Villan 2 or 1 (possible both) may have a strong hand given the dry flop and the action. I especially had a read on Villan 1 that he's strong. If I hit a 4 on the turn, I can jam and hopefully one of them has a set or two pairs. I just thought that the implied odd was good enough to warrant a call here. If another diamond falls on the turn, I can re-assess.
Do you think my reasoning was correct there?
1/2NL $200max buy-in
Hero sat down about an hour ago. Lost and won small pots with straight-forward plays. (~$230)
Villan 1 looked fishy and plays a wide range. Seems to call with a marginal hand. (~$350)
Villan 2 is a reg, played against him in a couple of sessions, a typical TAG who bets his strong hands well. (~$500)
Villan 3 seemed solid, but no read (~$600).
Preflop:
There were ~three limpers before me, including Villan 1. I have 7
5 on CO and call.Villan 2 on SB completes.
Villan 3 on BB raises to $12.
Everyone except one player calls. (All other villans are in)
Flop: (pot = $60)
Q
63Villan 2 donks out for $20
Villan 3 folds instantly (probably had AK?)
Villan 1 calls $20
Hero ???
The pot was now $100, giving me 5:1 odds to call. There was nobody else to act behind me. I have a gut shot for a nut straight, backdoor flush draw, and position on both Villan 1 and 2. Also, both villans covered me. I figured either Villan 2 or 1 (possible both) may have a strong hand given the dry flop and the action. I especially had a read on Villan 1 that he's strong. If I hit a 4 on the turn, I can jam and hopefully one of them has a set or two pairs. I just thought that the implied odd was good enough to warrant a call here. If another diamond falls on the turn, I can re-assess.
Do you think my reasoning was correct there?
11-14-2011
, 09:41 PM
I'm not a fan of the call on the flop, stack sizes just aren't large enough to draw at 4 outs. This can even be a fold pre.
You will likely only be able to see one card here, and a 4 is the only card that is going to help. Any (thats not the 4) is probably going to be a fold on the turn. You are going to be priced out of this pot with any decent bet on the turn.
Pick a better spot to get your money in, 17% of your stack is going into this hand if you make the call, and you are drawing at a gutshot...
You will likely only be able to see one card here, and a 4 is the only card that is going to help. Any
(thats not the 4) is probably going to be a fold on the turn. You are going to be priced out of this pot with any decent bet on the turn.Pick a better spot to get your money in, 17% of your stack is going into this hand if you make the call, and you are drawing at a gutshot...
11-15-2011
, 12:56 AM
Let's assume there is a set out there. Let's also assume that we will get stacks in on the turn against whoever has the set, but no other money is going in. Let's also forget about backdoor flush outs for a second.
We will miss on the turn and fold, let's say 41/45 times. We will hit and dodge a board pair, let's say with probability (4/45)(34/44) = 34/495. We will hit and see the board pair, let's say with probability (4/45)(10/44) = 2/99.
So we lose $20 41/45 of the time: -$18.22
We lose $218 2/99 of the time: -$4.40
We win $318 34/495 of the time: +$21.84
So given all of these assumptions, our EV is -$0.78.
This is an extremely pessimistic estimate and it has us almost breaking even.
Here's why this is pessimistic:
1) We ignored the backdoor outs. If we hit a diamond or an 8 and are allowed to see a cheap river, we could win stacks with a backdoor flush or straight.
2) We have position, both absolute and relative. There are two other people who could put money in the pot here. If the preflop raiser bet/folds the turn and we stack off against the other guy, that increases the positive term while not changing the negative terms. (Even better if they both stack off!)
3) We don't lose to a boat as often as 10/44 of the times we hit. First of all, since this pot is multiway, it's likely that there are blockers to a board pair, which is good for us (the large negative term drops and the positive term increases at the same time). Second, if we hit the 4, then the 6 is not one of villain's redraw outs. (Granted, this is an extreme fringe case.)
It's hard to take all of this into account in precise calculations, but given how close it is without considering these factors, all of which only help us, I think it's fair to say this is a +EV call, though it does appear to be close because of how shallow the effective stacks are.
We will miss on the turn and fold, let's say 41/45 times. We will hit and dodge a board pair, let's say with probability (4/45)(34/44) = 34/495. We will hit and see the board pair, let's say with probability (4/45)(10/44) = 2/99.
So we lose $20 41/45 of the time: -$18.22
We lose $218 2/99 of the time: -$4.40
We win $318 34/495 of the time: +$21.84
So given all of these assumptions, our EV is -$0.78.
This is an extremely pessimistic estimate and it has us almost breaking even.
Here's why this is pessimistic:
1) We ignored the backdoor outs. If we hit a diamond or an 8 and are allowed to see a cheap river, we could win stacks with a backdoor flush or straight.
2) We have position, both absolute and relative. There are two other people who could put money in the pot here. If the preflop raiser bet/folds the turn and we stack off against the other guy, that increases the positive term while not changing the negative terms. (Even better if they both stack off!)
3) We don't lose to a boat as often as 10/44 of the times we hit. First of all, since this pot is multiway, it's likely that there are blockers to a board pair, which is good for us (the large negative term drops and the positive term increases at the same time). Second, if we hit the 4
, then the 6 is not one of villain's redraw outs. (Granted, this is an extreme fringe case.)It's hard to take all of this into account in precise calculations, but given how close it is without considering these factors, all of which only help us, I think it's fair to say this is a +EV call, though it does appear to be close because of how shallow the effective stacks are.
11-15-2011
, 01:38 AM
Quote:
Let's assume there is a set out there. Let's also assume that we will get stacks in on the turn against whoever has the set, but no other money is going in. Let's also forget about backdoor flush outs for a second.
We will miss on the turn and fold, let's say 41/45 times. We will hit and dodge a board pair, let's say with probability (4/45)(34/44) = 34/495. We will hit and see the board pair, let's say with probability (4/45)(10/44) = 2/99.
So we lose $20 41/45 of the time: -$18.22
We lose $218 2/99 of the time: -$4.40
We win $318 34/495 of the time: +$21.84
So given all of these assumptions, our EV is -$0.78.
This is an extremely pessimistic estimate and it has us almost breaking even.
Here's why this is pessimistic:
1) We ignored the backdoor outs. If we hit a diamond or an 8 and are allowed to see a cheap river, we could win stacks with a backdoor flush or straight.
2) We have position, both absolute and relative. There are two other people who could put money in the pot here. If the preflop raiser bet/folds the turn and we stack off against the other guy, that increases the positive term while not changing the negative terms. (Even better if they both stack off!)
3) We don't lose to a boat as often as 10/44 of the times we hit. First of all, since this pot is multiway, it's likely that there are blockers to a board pair, which is good for us (the large negative term drops and the positive term increases at the same time). Second, if we hit the 4, then the 6 is not one of villain's redraw outs. (Granted, this is an extreme fringe case.)
It's hard to take all of this into account in precise calculations, but given how close it is without considering these factors, all of which only help us, I think it's fair to say this is a +EV call, though it does appear to be close because of how shallow the effective stacks are.
We will miss on the turn and fold, let's say 41/45 times. We will hit and dodge a board pair, let's say with probability (4/45)(34/44) = 34/495. We will hit and see the board pair, let's say with probability (4/45)(10/44) = 2/99.
So we lose $20 41/45 of the time: -$18.22
We lose $218 2/99 of the time: -$4.40
We win $318 34/495 of the time: +$21.84
So given all of these assumptions, our EV is -$0.78.
This is an extremely pessimistic estimate and it has us almost breaking even.
Here's why this is pessimistic:
1) We ignored the backdoor outs. If we hit a diamond or an 8 and are allowed to see a cheap river, we could win stacks with a backdoor flush or straight.
2) We have position, both absolute and relative. There are two other people who could put money in the pot here. If the preflop raiser bet/folds the turn and we stack off against the other guy, that increases the positive term while not changing the negative terms. (Even better if they both stack off!)
3) We don't lose to a boat as often as 10/44 of the times we hit. First of all, since this pot is multiway, it's likely that there are blockers to a board pair, which is good for us (the large negative term drops and the positive term increases at the same time). Second, if we hit the 4
, then the 6 is not one of villain's redraw outs. (Granted, this is an extreme fringe case.)It's hard to take all of this into account in precise calculations, but given how close it is without considering these factors, all of which only help us, I think it's fair to say this is a +EV call, though it does appear to be close because of how shallow the effective stacks are.
How would you quantify the scenario when they both check the turn? Does that case add +EV? In hindsight, I thought about the scenario what if their hands are not that strong; for example, villan 2 holding Qx and villan 1 on a straight draw or pocket pair something like that (given his wide calling range). If neither players improve on the turn, I think I will get a free card for river. Villan 2 won't bet into two callers with a weak queen, and Villan 1 won't bet either unless he hits. This is all hindsight by the way, but if I thought this during the hand, I would have been more inclined to call.
p.s. btw, Villan 2 was not preflop raiser, but was the first to bet and donked bet into the raiser (AND multiple people behind) on the flop
Last edited by mr_clutch31; 11-15-2011 at 01:50 AM.