Playing at a very loose table. Various villains have been raising to $15 with the likes of Q4o, 92o etc. Couple of sharks hoping to felt these jabronis. Villain in question has been felted twice already with questionable showdowns.

Hero had $400 and effective stacks were anywhere from $150 to $400.

Hero is dealt AA

UTG limps
UTG+1 limps
MP folds
HJ folds
Hero raises to $15
Button calls $15
SB calls $15
BB calls $15
UTG calls $15
UTG+1 calls $15

Pot: $90

Flop: 2 4 J

SB checks
BB checks
UTG checks
UTG+1 checks
Hero bets $70
Button folds
SB folds
BB folds
UTG folds
UTG+1 CR all-in for $70 more ($140 total)
Hero calls obviously (call $70 to win $300 so getting >4:1 odds)

- - - - - - - -

Thoughts? First mistake was not raising more PF. If the standard open at the table was $15 I think I should have made it $20-25 after 2 limpers to thin the field. I obviously did not expect to see 5 callers here.

I think my bet of $70 into $90 was fine on the flop. I'm happy to take this down right here with no one putting up a fight. When utg+1 CR for only $70 more I don't see how I can fold here. Non-nut flushes, straight draws, overpairs, 2 pairs and sets are all in his range based on all the calls. I wonder what an equity calculation would look like vs. a virtually ATC range here.

Seems perfectly fine all around.
As long as you tell me that $15 opens were getting no callers, or 1-2 callers most times.

Sometimes 1 call starts a callvalanche, and you just can't do anything about it.
Those times are unfortunate, but whatever.

If we give him a range of
Board: Js 2h 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.914% 31.91% 00.00% 6003 0.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 68.086% 68.09% 00.00% 12807 0.00 { JJ, 44, 22, KhJh, QhJh, JhTh, Jh9h, Jh8h, 6h5h, 5h3h, 42s }

All sets (even though JJ is pretty lol to be played this way) and then really strong draws, we're 31% to win.
And we're getting like 4:1, we're good to go.

Callvalanche, hehe.


looks perfectly standard once you get to the flop. You might consider increasing your raise size if $15 is often getting called by more than 1 or 2 players.

I added an edit to the OP. Villain in question was felted twice already with horrible showdowns.

Anyway, is there a shorthand trick for doing this type of equity calculation in real time? Or is this just an experience thing where you have to memorize certain ratios/percentages of likely villain holdings and come up with an implied equity to help make these decisions rather than simple pot odds ("I'm getting 4:1 so this must be a +EV call") or going with your *shudders,* 'gut.'

And these are pretty much worst case scenarios. Villain is most likely going to felt with any J if he is going to continue in the hand, random flush draw that has no pair or straight outs, an oddly played QQ or KK, or even an odd A5 or A3 suited that they saw flop with and think they have a gutter and over or some type of hand with a 4 in it occasionally because they put hero on AK.

I generally assume that if there's a flush draw on board, and I have an OP, that getting 2:1 I tend to call.

There are generally 9 combos of sets(which are normally discounted down to 5-6 because it's hard to flop sets man!) which we are 10% against.
5 combos of realistic flush draws on any board which we are 65% against.
I just just assume 5 combos of 2p which we are 20% againt.
And 2-3 combos of anything else. Which we are generally 80% against.

6/18 * .1 + 5/18 * .65 + 5/18 * .2 + 3/18 * .8 = .033 + .181 + .055 + .133 which gives us 40% equity in the hand.

Of course this can be tweaked to account for any number of things:
His range can be stronger as there was more people in the hand, so the one person who plays back at us is likely the person who flopped the strongest hand / draw out of all the limpers.
His range can be really weak if lots of people called before him pre flop, and now he's "pot committed".
He's a spazz, and we just assume he's getting it in with more TP combos than we normally assign.
There are high cards on the board that just don't make sense for him to have a set with. (Like JJ here.)
He's an OMC and I fold AA face up getting 7:1 because he always limped with JJ and I'm always drawing almost dead.
I have history with the guy and he plays his draws weak and won't shove here for some reason.

I don't know of an easy way to short hand it at the table, but just knowing some common spots can make decisions easier, and then just adjust as needed.

At a very loose table, just pop the 2 limpers to 20+. Standard post flop play.

This is a great flop for your hand even 5 ways. You're never folding as this guy has any number of Js and flush draws in his range ainec. Sorry you lost.

As for preflop if $15 was getting it to go 1 to 2 ways this is find. If $15 had been going crazy multiway earlier obviously raise more pre.

Iraisetoomuch. I think you're giving him too small a range of "anything else". I think his range includes all 10J - AJ.

That's fine.
It's possible.

Just makes it an even easier call.

I was just giving my normal approach for the situation.
When he isn't so short stacked and we might be calling a bigger bet.

I might raise bigger pre

this is a perfect flop for AA 6 way

i would check evaluate 100% of the time on 678 789 etc boards even rainbow as they are terribke

but this flop is perfect as 22 and 44 are pretty much the only hands you arelosing to

so many Jx QQ and flush draws in there ranges as well as maybe an OESD

never folding unless it goes raise shove shove shove after you bet

but as played easy snap call een if he shoved for 200-300ish bc against one villain on this flop with AA you cannot fold for <150-200BBS imo unless hes a super nit. vs younger kids, LAGs or maniacs it would take 200+bbs to fold

Fair. Just thought I'd point that out. I agree if we are deeper the spot actually becomes a lot more interesting.

Villain pretty much fit the bill. Young, LAG, maniac. Later in the session he busted 2 other people with some questionable holdings after being given poor odds to stick around. When he got up to $750 he got up and left for a $2/5 table and I'm guessing he gave it all back fairly quickly.

FWIW, villain had 2-pair with 24. Against that I've got 5 outs on the turn and 8 on the river plus the backdoor flush. I just shrugged it off it coulda been worse. But yes I agree with all saying raise more pre. I've gotta do a better job of thinning the field and not being worried that $20 may cause it to fold around the table. I got a little greedy raising to $15.

nh