1/2 NL AA - Page 2 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

Of course we are. But if villain never had a 5 here or KK (and if OP read is correct he doesnt) then his range is pretty much QQ and JJ. He has twice as many QQ combos as JJ, and we need 40ish% to call. If he ever flats KK (let's give him 3 combos) to see if an Ace flops we are even more stupid far ahead

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02-13-2015 , 08:54 PM

#28

Winslow Lee

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 22

Gotcha. I have to admit an almost complete lack of math skills (working on it) when it comes to combos and what % are +EV in a situation like this.
I know the rule of2 and 4 and can figure out my pot odds, but I'm still learning.
So I end up relying heavily on my reads in these situations,wich I know is costing me $$$
So I really do appreciate everyone taking the time to post here,it's VERY helpful.

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02-13-2015 , 10:44 PM

#29

redrex003

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 179

I don't think even OMC donk overshoves top full.

Also not everyone auto 4bets KK.

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02-14-2015 , 01:03 AM

#30

fun101

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 2,237

This is an easy call. He has QQ a lot here, and sometimes KK. There is a small chance he has JJ or a 5 but whatever, it's a trivial call.

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02-14-2015 , 09:20 AM

#31

Steve00007

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 9,333

Have you ever seen him raise $18 or more pf before and show? If the answer is no, then I think the bet sizing tell isn't strong enough to change our decision. I've seen much bigger raises with JJ from people who hated playing the hand. If it was a raise to $30 I'd be more convinced. $18 still isn't that much bigger than his other raises, and you did say he varies the size of his raises.

The other tells are a bad sign, but I think you still have to call because there are more combos of QQ and I wouldn't totally rule out KK or even a stupid bluff.

It's not the worst fold ever. Not even close. But I still think it's a clear mistake.

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02-14-2015 , 09:24 AM

#32

Steve00007

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 9,333

I'm not sure about this villain but I think a lot of villains would fold JJ if they raise and it gets reraised to $48.

Quote:

Originally Posted by redrex003

I don't think even OMC donk overshoves top full.

Also not everyone auto 4bets KK.

Yeah many villains would slowplay if they hit the flip that hard, especially against someone who 3-bet big before the flop.

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02-14-2015 , 04:07 PM

#33

Thorware

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 260

I kinda hate the situation, no clear answer. V is a rec loose player and can easily be tempted to overplay when he gets a real hand (QQ-KK), but the huge overbet is extremely scary and could very easily be 5x if not JJ. I call it off but this is a high variance spot, if you're concerned about bankroll stability a fold is reasonable just due to the sheer size of the bet. SPR is around 3.5 which suggests getting it in with AA, a 200BB shove isn't that big any more considering the preflop pot size.

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02-15-2015 , 12:40 AM

#34

jambre

adept

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 1,181

This isnt evne close. Villain would have to be ******ed to donk shove a full house given the action. Maybe he does on occsasion, but it isn't often enough to outweigh the hands we beat.

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02-15-2015 , 12:54 AM

#35

problemeliminator

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 9,467

Villain is pretty idiotic regardless of whether hes bluffing or has the nuts.

Amazed that anyone folds. Trying to put people on exact hands at LLSNL is a fools errand. People are too erratic.

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