i dont think V possibly leaving should factor into it. you cant control what you don't know.

plus, you seem to play a lot, how many times have you seen someone, especially Vs playing fast and loose, grow a huge stack then spew it all back plus some?? i know i routinely see that as well

Great point. Surely there are going to be more +EV spots against this particular villain. While I hate foregoing any EV by "picking a better spot" (god, it sickens me to even type that), if this villain is that spewey, he'll donate his stack. Let's put ourselves in as many good positions to be the recipient.

This precisely the one acceptable "pick a better spot" scenario in a cash game. Deep in a capped game vs an opponent who is deep that we have position on and an edge. There is definite value in maintaining our deep stack since we can't just add on.

About the bolded:

You will often hear it said on this forum--correctly in my opinion (and see the current COTM too)--that most players at LLSNL react to hyper-aggression by calling preflop raises looking to flop huge and folding when they miss. They tend not to respond by playing back with weaker hands than normal.

So if this Villain is aware of your aggression level but is a bad player, this even more serves to tell you that he's probably going to have you beat if you call.

EDIT: One more thing. When you are this deep, not knowing how to react to a raise is a perfectly valid reason to check back the turn in my opinion. I'm not saying you should or shouldn't do it, but I am saying that opening yourself up to make a mistake for deep stacks can be worse than missing one street of value with one pair.

Well said

Whether V is semi bluffing, bluffing with complete air, or has the nuts, I like his turn jam.

Grunch

Yea this is pretty disgusting. I'd discount AK because he's raising many of those combos preflop or c/calling down. The fact that you can eliminate flush draws argues for checking turn to get value from Kx combos (can you really get three streets from KToff?KQ? Maybe you can. It's tough to say).

Given his genuine discomfort, his most likely hands to ship for value seem like good, but not great, hands that beat you (he may fear KK/77 but then say eff it im allin):
75s (3 combos, he may raise flop or flat turn but this seems like his most likely value hand)
87s (2 combos)
55 (2 combos b/c he probably raises flop sometimes or just flats turn)
77 (1 combos because he'd be less uncomfortable)
88 (1 combo that flatted the flop?)
96ss (this goes against your read of discomfort, but he could be hollywooding or deciding how much to raise...2 combos)

vs. the range above you have 7.5% equity
given the odds you're getting (1.7:1), you need him to be lolspewing such that your equity rises to 37%.

He could spew with hands like:

AK (1 combo seems unlikely)
89hh (1 combo)
KQ or some other Kx hand (?)

to me the question is how often does he lolspazz with Kx that he flatted flop with. Even with reads that villain's a wild card I bet/fold this turn. Checking turn to call or vbet rivers also seems good given the fewer flushdraws in his range.

Pretty much this.

he could have 109 of hearts.

But being this deep, I am probably folding. I'd wait for a better spot. Like other have said $2000 pots at 1/2 hardly every contain just one pair hands.

This guy sounds crazy. But this is always a fold with one pair.

I feel like you folded and he showed a combo draw... I'd put him on 2 pair here though FWIW considering the cr*p he's been calling pre with.

Either way, you need to fold. Wait for a better spot - sounds like a great game.

To be honest against this villain, this deep, I check back the turn and assess the river.

Consensus is clear here anyway, fold turn. I'd make it more pre by the way. Flop bet is fine.

Unlucky. I hope you didn't level yourself.

Sick hand if he has 88 or ugh 68hh.

85hh?

Couple thoughts on this

1) Can we add some very real non-zero % of the time that V is playing back at us due to adrenaline and loving the rush of gambling? We already saw him ship once with an 8-high flush draw.

2) Can we add some very real non-zero % of the time that V plays back at us because he is fed up with hero taking pot-shot sized pots off him without showdown and now he wants to take a stand?

Not sure if either of this is enough to sway the decision in our favor though

I think given villans tendency to spew and the fact that we have an awkward SPR for AA we should be checking at some point to get to show down. We can check turn and call river. If we know our Villan is Xraise happy we should be exploiting that and checking back. Then allow him to either:
A) value own himself
B) spew/bluff

Results



Villain got up shortly after this hand and left to play "Spanish 21." He was just playing poker for the rush.

so sick...wish we wouldve seen him do a similar turn spazz with a crap hand before but even then it wouldnt have been this deep likely so its just so hard to know the degree to which this kid able to spazz for super deep stacks

he spazzed on flop before too, not turn, which is so key

this "2) Can we add some very real non-zero % of the time that V plays back at us because he is fed up with hero taking pot-shot sized pots off him without showdown and now he wants to take a stand? " is also a crucial question...

I often level myself into thinking that bad players are making a stand against me but usually I get stacked in these spots when I call

I really resonated with what CallMeVernon talked about (current COTM as well like he mentioned) about bad villians readjusting to aggression by trying to spike not by making stands with mediocre hands, I think its super accurate

nf

Vernon's answer crushed it. Against this villain, this deep, I'm checking the turn if I don't know what to do against a check-raise.

It seems like a weak line, and it fails to charge his draws. But his one-pair hands (the value hands we beat) are either folding to this bet or check-raising this bet as a bluff. The draws are probably calling, but sometimes check-raising. And the two pair+'s are check-raising.

If we check behind, then his one pair hands either bet for value or check/call for value. His draws either bluff at us (if they miss) or bet smaller for value (if they hit). And two pair +'s bet smaller for value.

Pot controlling with AA on a wet board shouldn't be our line very often. This seems like the right time, though.

Yea turn check is beautiful here we get to river having kept villians range nice and wide in preparation for bluff catching, villian chucks out a sizable bet, we snap it, so much easier