Home game, Thursday night, 10:30 p.m. ish, 1/2 NL, effective stacks $700.

I haven't played with villain before tonight. He is mid-20s Asian with a British accent (Singaporean?). He seemed loose-aggressive to me -- when a short-stack went all-in pre earlier in a multi-way pot, he over-shoved with KQ suited. Has built himself a nice stack, largely on a 3-way all-in where he had AA after limp-reraising pre. Seems positionally aware and didn't want to be OOP to me as I asked for a seat-change to his right and he immediately took my old seat.

Hero has a tighter-than-usual image due to being card-dead. One unsuccessful river bluff for $50 in position 2 hours ago. Snug otherwise and winning recently.

Two limps to villain in HJ, who makes it $12. Hero calls with J9. Blinds fold, one limper folds, loose-fish limper calls.

Flop ($41): K94

Fish checks, villain bets $25. Hero ends up calling. Note: if we were 100 BBs deep, I'm probably raising here and happy to get it in. This deep though, I feel very vulnerable if he 3-bets and by that point, he's probably pretty far ahead (set, 2 pair, even a bigger diamond draw). Fish folds.

Turn ($91): 8

Villain bets $50. Hero raises to $170. If he called I was planning to check any non-diamond, J, or 9 river (14 outs), as I don't think he calls that raise OOP with than second pair-GK. If raised . . . my decision would be bet-size / read dependent.

Good move to fold out Kx hands while still having the redraw to a J, 9, or diamond on the river? Or bad move making myself susceptible to a 3-bet with plenty of equity? I thought a diamond might be transparent on the river after going call-call on the flop/turn and so I might not get paid if I hit the flush.

Not much changes from the flop to the turn. I like your call and reasoning to not raise the flop...should have kept it up on the turn IMO. I don't like the raise on the turn to get him to fold Kx without having seen him fold TPTK/TPGK before. Your calling $50 to win $140, so slightly less than 3-to-1. You have 14 outs (or maybe we should say 12 because the J could be dirty), so you need something like 3.5-to-1. As long as you can squeeze a 1/3rd pot bet out of him OTR when you hit, you're good.

EDIT: Also consider that a non-zero % of the time, villain is going to check to you OTR and you will win @ showdown with a pair of 9's.

What are we repping here? Sure, it's go to be scary to V here with us so deep, but we're really only repping non-top sets with 88 discounted, our actual hand, and JdTd. That seems pretty narrow/polarized, and I'd hate to be blown off our equity.

OTOH, this V isn't going to give us much if we hit the flush and is likely good enough to fold a lot of Ks here, so it's not awful. As long as we follow through with our plan not to fire another barrel unimproved, I like it, as it makes us much more likely to get paid if we hit OTR.

This was my biggest worry -- being perceived as FOS. I would have much rather seen something complete a gut-shot (Q/T/J) OTT. He's not putting me on 88. Maybe like 9d8d but it's not a wide range that improved on the turn.