I have to disagree with this. Just to start once we raise and make the pot so large it is in fact correct to be stacking off with TPGK. The SPR is so low that folding is certainly a mistake.

As far As 3 betting AQ, we shouldn't be doing it all that often. When we do it should be against a UTG open. This situation becomes very different is say the raise came from middle position and it went call call and we are on the button. Typically though I don't think 3 betting AQ is a good idea absent of reads especially vs early position Raises.

Now that you got yourself in this spot you just have to take the high varience play IMO.

This is my experience, sadly.

Let me change the dynamic of the hand a bit:
This is a much more common occurance. Our 3! gets us HU or 3way, we whiffed the flop, the field checks to the preflop aggressor, and we do what? If we check behind, they'll instantly know what we have and lead out any non A/K/Q turn. If we c-bet, they'll station up and let us value-town ourselves, even after barreling the turn. This is why I hate the 3! pre. I wish it worked, but usually I end up pissing away half a buyin when I do. So many threads people say "bad players put you on AK", so when you DO have AK/Q, 3! to sieze initiative (and bloat the pot), then flop overs, how do you win?

I disagree. What do you think he has that we beat?

We should give him an average LLSNL player's range - this is obviously not necessarily going to be accurate but it's the best we can do with no reads. My effort at this is...

After UTG raise: big cards, medium to big pairs, some other random stuff.

After call of 3-bet: he'd probably 4-bet KK and AA so ditch those, also ditch the weaker part of his range so we're maybe left with AJ+, KQ, 77 - QQ.

After donk lead: ditch 77, 88, 99, TT, QQ, KQ. He might check JJ so discount that.

I'm left with AK, AQ, AJ, maybe JJ. Some players may be wider but I think this is a reasonable range for an average LLSNL player. Maybe I'm wrong.

So I'm folding my AQ. If I had AK in the same situation then I'd play on despite the hand strength looking similar.

This sums it up pretty well. I am definitely 3betting pre with this hand, even against unknown Vs. To not do so is passing up on great value opportunities - when many players at 1-2 are routinely calling with dominated hands.

However, once V has shown this kind of strength by donking into two players otf, I think I have to back away from my hand unless I have further reads.

I don't think your scenario is such a bad spot at all. We are checked to in position in our 3 bet pot with initiative, and get a nice dry flop.

Yeah, we whiffed, but we fire half the pot, repping the overpair most 3betters would have and take it down a lot of the time.

If we get called, I'm shutting down. Again, this scenario is much better if we have reads, but if we readlessly 3bet a weak open as we did, this is a must fire the flop situation. And it is going to work a lot of the time.

Agreed.

If we're opening AQo and Villain has our Kryponite JT, he's going to flop top pair less than 20% of the time.

If Villain is calling 3-bets with JT we should start 3-betting with a wider range not tighter. All of a sudden AJ and AT look a lot stronger.

I see your point and I would like to clarify that the difference between AQ and AK in this spot is huge. The thing is once we 3 bet and get ourselves in this spot and we hit our hand its kind of a no brainer. I'm not ranging villan on anything too strong like 2pair plus. JJ and AJ just don't lead out all that often. I think we are in a break even spot. Since the pot is so big and based on the price we don't need to be ahead of his range we just need the right price.

The right price is up for debate imo. Just let be known I am not a fan of 3 betting an UTG raise in the first place especially absent of reads.

I think this almost merits another thread. When you raise preflop and get called by 1 or 2 villains you are stating that when you c-bet you are losing money longterm and c-betting in this generic scenario is -EV???

I gotta say, you are doing something wrong

This has kind of run its course so I'll just provide results.



Major takeaways are probably:

1. Don't 3! an UTG open with AQ
2. Don't 3! in your first orbit readless
3. It's okay to take it easy with good but not great cards while you learn table dynamics

Thanks everyone

Dont like a 3! here. Specially with 3 early calls and very few reads.
I'm guessing the logic was to not have to play a hand w/ 6-7ppl to the flop.

Understandable. That being said if I were to 3! I would make it 22ish. Discourages limpers behind and still keeps the bottom of villians' ranges in the hand. Your hand isnt great 4 way but its still better than 7 way, and everyone knows how sticky live players can be once the put money in already.