Kind of annoyed at myself and not sure if I should just abide by a simple maxim of "NEVER 3! with AQ absent reads on villain!"

Hero sat down 1 hand ago. No reads on anyone at the table. Effective stacks of $200 but V1 is sitting on $1000.

Hero dealt AQ

V1 opens for $7 UTG
UTG+1 calls $7
UTG+2 calls $7
Hero UTG+3 raises to $35
Folds around to V1
V! calls $35
UTG+1 calls $35
UTG+2 calls $35

Pot: $~140

Flop: A 4 J

V1 bets $100
V2 folds
V3 folds
Hero ?

I feel like I put myself in a ****ty predicament here and not sure if I should have just flatted pre.

I don't mind 3-betting if anything to get a low SPR and to isolate. Assuming V1 isn't an OMC, it's not the worst play. But of course reads would be preferable.

The problem is not so much 3-betting pre, but the fact that the flop sucks and gives AJ two pair. If you don't feel comfortable committing on this flop its perfectly fine to fold here.

You'd be in almost the same spot if you had AK.

Basically this.

I don't hate a 3 bet here, but it is a tough spot with this flop having no read on villain, and understanding what a $7 UTG open means from him.

But in this spot I might have done the same to ISO.

As played, the donk into 4 players looks super strong, so it is an easy fold.
Top off your stack to the max, make note of how villains played this hand, and profit.

It looks like an action table!

I think the 3 bet is fine in normal circumstances (versus a table of average rec players) but we've just sat down so in this instance I might fold until I have a better idea of how the table is playing. I agree that, as played, it's a fold on the flop.

If we had AK, and played it the same way, then I'd play for stacks because I think {AK, AQ, AJ} makes up most of an unknown's range here based on the information - the UTG raise, the preflop flat call and the donk bet on the flop.

How have you been at the table for an hour and not have any reads on anyone? Even things like race, age, playstyle go a long way in us helping you out here.

I'm 3 betting here like all the time, especially with such a small raise of $7 and 2 callers. Most of the time you're getting this heads up or scooping it right there, so I think it's a good play. AQo is too good of a hand to just call imo.

Hate the flop after he leads for 100. As others have said, AJ now beats you and AK was always beating you. Like I was referencing earlier, depending upon villian's image this could be a call, but with no reads I'm letting it go. NH

OP said hand, not hour.

Such a small raise, I'd be tempted to flat pre and get a sense of how V plays post. As played, I'm curious how many V's are calling a 3! OOP with hands as weak as AJ. Meaning you're likely up against a narrow range of AA AK maaaaybe KK.

My bad, thought it was an hour.

I'd still like some basic info on villain. The different ways a young 20 year old would play compared to a 50 year old man can make the difference between calling or folding.

Fair enough. V1 is 45-50 year old white male wearing a t-shirt and jeans. Casually calls the 3! without giving it much thought and casually splashes another $30 out there.

Fold. There's so many hands that can beat us. We can find a better spot

AK would normally 4bet here OOP with shallow stacks and lots of dead money in the pot
JJ+ might flat not to scare the other 2 callers
AJs possibly can call but aint really a standard play OOP

what range is he leading us that beats us? AA, JJ, AK, some bluffs... pretty much all his 3bet calling range UTG.

and having no read, i fold...

I get the impression american casinos have tighter/more competent players, based on personal experience players dont fold what they believe to be decent hands, broadway cards especially suited and any pair, OOP or otherwise.
I think folding flop is terrible. Is there really any other play than to call down and check back if villain shuts down unless we improve to trips or possibly 2pair?
Also, i would consider calling pre to let in hands that we dominate.

Yes, it's bad read less. Especially an UTG raise.

I agree

lol no

You should buy V1 a beer for turning his hand face up because is telling us that he likes this flop. Given that he raised from UTG his holdings should be weighted strongly towards AK/AQ/AJ/JJ. Given that, this is a trivial fold.

I don't know that the 3-bet is terrible necessarily, but in general I'd recommend playing things a little closer to the vest when you first join a table until you have gathered more information about your opponents and how they are playing in order to make more optimal decisions in big pots like this.

Folding TP2ndK in a 1 SPR pot is bad (unless I'm reading the stacks wrong)

So let's give him a range of TT+, AKo+, AQo+, AJo+, ATo+

Correct my math if I am wrong here. On the flop, this leaves:

8 combos of AK
4 combos of AQ
6 combos of AJ
8 combos of AT --> discounted to 4
1 combo of AA
6 combos of KK
3 combos of QQ
3 combos of JJ
6 combos of TT

We can probably discount AT, so let's cut it in half and call it 4 combos. So realistically, there are ~40 combos of hands V1 would open UTG and then call a 3! with, and depending on reads that can be adjusted up or down.

What % of these hands do we think a readless 50-year old white male in t-shirt and jeans with $1000 stack in front of him may lead with? He is probably not leading with AA and JJ, so that removes 4 combos. He is probably not leading with TT, so that removes 6 combos. There are 9 combos of KK/QQ, but lets discount and say he only leads with 5 of them.

So his flop betting range looks like:

8 AK - lose
4 AQ - chop
6 AJ - lose
4 AT - beat
5 KK/QQ - beat

So we are losing to 14 combos, beating 9 combos, and chopping with 4 combos. Basically a coin flip. This is where the math/strategy breaks down for me. Since I am getting 2.4:1 odds does that mean it is a no brainer call? Or am I severely overstating the possible combinations we beat that he may donk with and just focus on how the hand has played out and realize it is most likely that we are beat?

The $100, ~3/4 pot lead into 4 players in a 3 bet pot looks REALLY strong.

He loves his hand, he absolutely wants to get called.
I think he is almost never doing this with KK/QQ or AT. Even AQ might be a smaller bet, or a check call.

If he made a probing donk bet of 40-50, I might believe he had a weaker holding.

This is AK, AJ or JJ pretty much always.

johnnyBuz you need to do a better job of reading the story that the villain is telling. Villain didn't like his hand enough to 4-bet but now all of a sudden likes his hand enough to lead out against 3 villains including the preflop 3-better. How can you ever reasonably expect the villain to suddenly show strength with KK/QQ when an ace comes out? That makes absolutely no sense. Most competent villains have AJ+ here but other players may have an Ace+ here but either way we do not do well vs that range.

If you don't want to 3bet because you don't have good enough reads, just fold. Don't call a raise. Your lack of reads will hurt you postflop if you take a multiway flop.

This. It's ok to take a lap or two and nit up while you observe betting patterns and form ranges.

This is by far one of my biggest leaks that occasionally sneaks up on me. Sometimes I'll be new to the table and spot an opportunity without properly understanding the table dynamics and villains' tendencies. My "generic" reads usually works but sometimes I make mistakes simply because I don't properly understand my villains' competencies. So yeah, taking 30 minutes or so to get a firm handle on table dynamics and villain tendencies is definitely the way to go.

In a vaccuum, i'm fine with your 3-bet. Truth be told, players don't 3-bet near enough at 1/2nl. For the most part, raising preflop and following it up with a c-bet when we are 3 handed or less is printing money in LLSNL.

As played, I fold here without a second thought.

Doubtful V is doing this with AT. And not enough players at this level have it in them to turn QQ/KK into a bluff here and donk into the preflop 3-bettor for half their stack.

So, yeah, I let this go.

The big stuff has been pretty well covered by others, but just wanted to comment on the bolded. I'm not sure why JJ is completely discounted. Leading with JJ would be fine, since most players are never folding AK/AQ here and he wouldn't exactly be thrilled to see a T, Q, or K ott if it checks around.

As played, easy fold.

I don't know many 45-50 yr old men who "normally 4bet AK"

IME they are far more likely to limp AK in EP than 4!

I think JJ would C/R as it's a near certainty I am betting this if checked to.