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12-05-2012 , 07:28 AM
1/2 table, table is generaly weak/passive. No lags to be found. Effective stacks about £350.

Hero (approx. £350): Middle-aged white guy in a suit. Table is full of unknowns; I'm at a casino I don't normally go to. I've been at the table for four hours. I hovered around my buy-in (£200) most of the session; I was a bit card dead early on but have picked up some good hands in the last 45 minutes or so and am up to about £350. I've slowly been opening up a bit as the table is playing weak/passive; I've taken down some nice pots and showing down big hands (nut flushes, pocket Aces, sets etc). Have not had to show down any bluffs. My image should be fairly tight and I should have a 'winning' image. I don't expect any villain to be observant enough to realize I'm playing a bit looser.

Villain 1 (covers the table): Middle-aged white guy. No reads; an unknown. Been at the table for about 2 hours, nothing remarkable. Might be a -bit- call happy early on but seems fairly straight-forward on later streets. I suspect he fast-plays his big hands, but he hasn't really had to show down much yet. No bluffs that I've seen. Only recent hand of note, about 10 minutes prior he 3-bet from LP over a raise and a call pre-flop and took the pot down.

Villain 2 (approx. £500): Young guy in a suit. No reads, an unknown. Sat down about 15 minutes ago. I don't think he's played a hand yet.

Hero is in the BB with K 10. V1 is UTG. V2 is in the HJ.

V1, V2 and four others limp to Hero in BB, who raises to £21 expecting a bunch of folds. V1 and V2 are the only callers.

Flop (£70): J 10 4

Hmm - middle pair, back-door flush and straight draws, somewhat wet board, only two opponents but I'm OOP. I think this is close, but with both villains limp/calling, I can't really put them on any monster hands. I decide to keep the initiative and c-bet; granted, better won't fold, but I can get value from worse (lots of draws out there). I'll eval my double-barrel options on the turn.

Hero bets £50. V1 calls. V2 calls (!)

Hmmm. I was hoping to get heads-up here. When both call, I figure one has a jack and one is on some draw.

Turn: (£220): J 10 4 10

Bingo. I almost certainly have the best hand here. I decide to bet out just big enough to give draws the wrong odds to call. J10 is a bit of a concern, but I'll worry about MUBS later. Most draws will be 8-9 cards; with 1 card to come they'd have about 16-18%, so I decide to price them in at about 25%, or approx. one-third pot (i.e., if I bet £120, pot is £340, £120 to call, so villain gets 2.8:1, or 26%).

Hero bets £120. V1 calls. V2 calls (!?!?!?)

River (£580): J 10 4 10 9

A real crap card. Front-door spades missed, but the most obvious straight draw (KQ) got there, although I do have one blocker. If I bet here is better ever folding? Can I get called by worse? Crap crap crap.

Hero CHECKS.

Villain 2 shoves.

Villain 3 shoves.

Pot is about £920, £160 to call, so I'm getting ridiculous pot odds of 5.8:1.

Anyone find a fold here?

Hero.....?
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12-05-2012 , 07:51 AM
Snap fold, possible limped hands KQ, J10, 10 9. Plus the gut shots that got there like your Q8suited

I know we have blockers but really can not see both villains in this live game beating each other in to the pot without having us beat.

Only hand we beat here is Q10?
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12-05-2012 , 09:27 AM
To be honest I just shove the turn, because you'll never estimate the % of time you are good when draws hit on the river correctly enough for it to be a profitable street (notwithshtanding the fact that whiffed draws fold), and I don't think it will affect people's calling ranges to a sufficient extent (i.e. in this case, 50%) for it to be a less profitable way to play the turn.
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12-05-2012 , 10:00 AM
I'm not thrilled about the prospects of raising k10s from the BB when we can just as easily check and not have to play a huge pot with a hand that kind of sucks, but since you did raise, I agree with the c-bet on the flop.

However, on the turn, you have to bomb it I think as played. You have just over a psb left, shove. With 2 callers on the flop this is where the money has to go in, although I'm not super thrilled about our prospects. The fact that nobody raised is a good sign, but you're still giving them the price to draw with 3 in the hand.

Shove turn, but obviously as played you have to fold river. No chance you're good
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12-05-2012 , 12:15 PM
On the turn obviously jamming was something I considered - but I dismissed it fairly quickly since it seems like such a gross overplay. Seems like jamming only folds out hands I get value from and only gets called by hands that have me beat, no?


So, recap: Board is River (£580): J 10 4 10 9

Hero with K 10 checks, V1 shoves, V2 shoves, pot is £920, £160 to call but I'm never ever good here so....

Hero puke/folds

V1 flipped over J 8

V2 flipped over Q Q

Hero goes into bathroom to slit wrists.
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12-05-2012 , 12:28 PM
fold
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12-05-2012 , 12:40 PM
Don't expect your turn bet to get draws to fold because they are going to think they have implied odds, and especially with 3 opponents in there they can call and hope the third comes along. I overbet jam the turn.

I already saw the results so it's hard to give an opinion without being results oriented. However I would think I am beat here a majority of the time, but would still probably call anyway because I only have to be good a small number of the time and it's possible for them to have worse 10's in their range, a jack that just wanted to see spades miss, or a jack that wanted to see you give up with what looked like a possible overpair or 2 overs and gutshot combo draw.
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12-05-2012 , 01:54 PM
I'm torn on V1's shove. On the one hand, it looks -so- strong, shoving into two people like that - and he did in fact get one better hand to fold. It was obviously the only way to win the pot; he has to know he doesn't have showdown value with top-pair/bad kicker. But he also has to know that he's literally -never- good when called, and given the action in the hand so far hard to assume he's going to get two folds. V2 snap called, and given the pot odds I probably -could- have called.

V1 said that he put me on a missed flush draw, and he was only trying to get V2 to fold. Pretty weird read - he can account for the 8, 10 and J of spades, and I'm probably not going 3-bet/bet/bet pre/flop/turn with a hand like 97s, so he has to hope I have AK or AQ and not KQ?

I have no idea what to make of V2's call. Did he specifically put V1 as bluffing a missed flush draw? What did he put me on, maybe some missed draw when I checked the river? Or was it just a matter of 'i haz an lol-overpair, I call any shoves'. ?

I've had a couple of big hands like this where I've folded the best hand in big pots. Harrington says that in really big pots we should find an excuse to -not- fold, since folding incorrectly in a hug 500BB pot has just as big of impact on your dotted line as incorrectly calling with garbage 50 times a might.
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12-05-2012 , 02:00 PM
Don't post results so quick but it looks like a fold to me. Would throw up when I saw their hands though.
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12-05-2012 , 02:09 PM
I just check preflop. We have a nice multiway hand so I'd like to keep it very multiway and keep the SPR nice and high. Even though a raise is likely to thin the field at this table, we'll still be playing OOP with a dominated hand.

I'm guessing flop is close, but I would lean towards a check. I'd really hate getting raised here, plus I'm also cool with this flop checking round. I'd check/evaluate, possibly calling a reasonable bet that looks like it might be a stab.

There are a bunch of hands that could be ahead of us at a limp/callly table. JT and 44 are obvious, but don't discount JJ or AT either. I'm actually kinda sick right now that we got two flop callers and we've built pot to the point where we are probably committed for 175 BBs. Maybe it's the MUBSy in me, but I think this is a fairly mediocre spot. We're also left with awkward stack size because if we are looking to bet on the big side to charge draws (i.e. well over 1/2 PSB), it sorta leaves us with a lol amount to bet on the river. Having said all that, I think we're kinda in a we-made-our-bed-so-lets-lie-in-it, so I probably go $120 now and plan to get the rest in on a blank river. ETA: I don't mind the idea of overshoving either, as others have said.

We've set ourselves up for a tough spot on the river. One of the most obvious draws did get there, and I think there was a decent chance we were crushed from the start. On the other hand, if we were betting the turn thinking we were ahead of a lot of hands, we only have 160 left in a 580 pot where Jx hands are never folding (but often checking behind). I think we set things up where we have to shove.

As played, we're getting crazy odds but the stars would really have to align here for us to be good. Ug. Sobbing/weeping overcall? I just can't see us being good here though...

GcluelessNLnoobG
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12-05-2012 , 03:30 PM
Turn spot is really strange - you're c/fing a spade river? I don't think I'd take this line b/c I think we will get bluffed sometimes otr as it will look as though you've given up and either other player may decide to shove a variety of hands we beat.

In any case, otr I assume their ranges include boats/jx/tx/kq/busted draws.
If you jam the river and are never called by worse, you need to get 13%ish folds for this to be +EV as a bluff. That said, worse is calling sometimes (QT/T8) and possibly AJ Jx whatever from some funky fish. Thus you would need them to have less than 13%ish folds and have you beat an overwhelming majority of the time. This is nowhere near possible so Jam > CF.

To compare Jam and C/C, you need to know if their calling range is wider than their jamming range. If their busted **** bets with a higher frequency than QT/Jx/whatever else you beat checks back, then you could say CC > Jam > CF and maybe it's the best play even though it sure looks weird and is an uncommon/tricky spot because the logic you used for your turn sizing is also uncommon.
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