Quote:
Originally Posted by endodocdc
I would have thought the opposite. If stacks are deep, then a call is much better. If shorter stack, then a raise makes more sense to me
This is exactly wrong. The original quote was right.
You have to think about your equity in the money going in right now. With 15 outs and one card to come, you only have roughly 1/3 equity in the pot. The people advocating a raise here are essentially arguing that it is ok to make a relatively small TFTOP error now in the hopes that a villian will make a very large error on the river when we make our hand. We need good implied odds, which requires our opponent to have a decent amount left to be bet on the river.
Given how this hand played, I call the turn. Since we have good equity, and the possibility of making a higher straight than our opponent on the river, I think it would be a disaster to get 3 bet here. However, if our opponents are also drawing, we should be able to get money in on the river regardless.
To those who say raise, are we barrelling the river when we miss? If not, a turn raise just feels like spew to me.