Quote:
Originally Posted by eldiesel
Strongrad, you're mentioning a lot about do you get called by worse by shoving, and it's great you're considering that, plenty of players don't understand that. But there's a wrinkle to it called protecting our equity. Usually it's in a small pot, like this:
V limps $2, Hero raises 88 to $12 in late position, V calls.
Flop (~$22) A 9 4
V checks, Hero checks
Turn ($22) A 9 4 - 9
V checks, Hero ?
So V is never checking an Ace to us twice, and since we shut down otf he isn't hitting trip 9s ott and checking it either. TT/JJ is raising preflop. So the only worse hands we might get called by is 66/77 pretty much. And the hands we get to fold by betting are KQ/KJ/KT/QJ/QT/JT but since there are only 12 combos of the smaller pp's and 96 combos of the unpaired broadway hands not including an Ace, we're protecting our equity against those broadway hands rivering a pair. Checking ott, letting them see the river for free and hitting a pair and taking the $22 pot is really bad. If this happens just once every 3 hours, we're foregoing this $22 pot, that's ~$7/hour off our winrate, which is huge.
There are rare time to bet knowing worse won't call, and it's usually in small pots ott, but your hand is an extreme example, we're MW and the pot is huge, but this is the reason I'd shove, even though I don't expect worse to call. There's a $450 pot out there to protect.
I agree with this. First, I think in a generic 1/2 game you will get calls by QT or Q9 and even straight draws that just don't want to fold with so much money out there.
Let's say though that not many worse hands will call us, it's still the right play to win the money out there right now. The whole reasoning behind the worse hands calling/folding is that we don't want to make, as they refer to it in poker terms, a 'mistake'. Well the problem is, checking here is also a 'mistake' because it gives a free card to any draws or single paired hands. So you have to choose now between which is a better 'mistake' to make? 1) AI on turn and folding out all worse hands, or 2) checking turn and giving a free card.
Given the board texture, the way the hand has been played, etc I think the best play is to stuff it in here. What happens if you check and an A, K, J, T, or 9 comes out on the river? Now what? You will most likely have to ch/f the river.
As played: You either want to check and get to showdown or bet AI and get worse top pair hands to call (which they will after you checked the turn, maybe even AJ hands). I would probably lean towards going AI. Anything that had you beat on the turn has you beat now, and I can't imagine someone catching up with that river card. This is also why checking on the turn is problematic bc it puts you in a tough spot on the river where you are not quite sure what to do oop.
