1/2 live, 10 player
1st orbit, no reads

sb= $300
bb= $300
mp (hero) = $300 8 8
hj (villain) = $500

preflop:
hero limps, hj raises to $15, sb/bb/hero calls

flop ($60): 7 8 Q
sb/bb checks, Hero?

I was thinking about betting $40 into the preflop raiser.
I cant risk a free card on that board in case he checks.
besides, if he has a piece of the board, i'll get action from him anyway.

What do you think? What would you do?

Yes, but lead bigger than $40

umm.. why?
whats wrong with 2/3 pot?

if he has a piece, he's going to call $50 and even full pot anyway.
now the pot is bigger and if a scare card comes on the turn, I gotta c/c more $

You answered your own question. If he calls a bigger bet you make more money.

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I also like betting 50 here. Can't give anyone a free card, and you're crushing everyone's ranges.

This

that's a VERY draw heavy board.
I could also lose a lot more $ too.

or am I playing too timid?

So these days I'm in a spot where I think this way in the heat of the game. It's a killer, I can't do it and neither should you. I need to remember that in NLHE it's most important to MAKE GOOD DECISIONS. You can't control the opponents or the cards to come, you can only do what is best for you and worst for them.

This flop is wonderful for you but there are a ton of cards that would spoil it. Play to win the pot now but be optimistic that you can take it down if a non-scare card hits the turn and you bet BIG again.

If you bet $50 and get a call then it's pretty cut-and-dried on what to do based on the turn. If you bet $50 and get a fold then you win a little pot and move on. If you bet $50 and get raised, you're re-raising for a huge pot.

If I'm off base, someone let me know, but I think you need to think and play to win, including betting as if you have the winner until you feel otherwise.

Yeah way too timid. You can't think about what you potentially can lose, only make the right decisions based on the info you have at the time. If you are constantly thinking about the "potential loss" then you aren't going to make the correct decisions.

Assuming this is live, any two clubs is coming along as is 910, some combos of j10/j9 with some clubs. aq/kq/qj also. lots of hands behind. bet close to pot on the flop and close to pot on the turn on a blank. Just fyi, i am not instantly checking a club turn, might even bet, just less than pot obv. Prob prefer betting the club actually. if he raises a turn club, you can prob get away. if he just flats, you get the opportunity to pair the board if he had the flush. by the river you will know if he has it or not and if you can get any value on the river or not.

It's not about the final outcome of this particular hand. It's about the aggregate of all the hands you play over the lifetime of your poker career.

Search the forums or go to the Micro PL/NL sticky and look up expected value and try to understand what it means.

The sole purpose of poker is to make the best decisions that maximize your EV for every hand.

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