Hi,

Hero(Has everybody covered) raises UTG+1 With KK to 8, gets 3 callers.
Flop JT4,
Hero Cbets 20 into 32 and gets 2 callers (IP caller with about 300 and other player with about 150)
JT4 Turn: 9
Check,Check and the final player bets 50 into 90,fold, Hero decides to check-call and decide on the river because still there is much on the table we beat against a fishy older man.
River 2,
so nothing changed.
We check to the older man and he bets 75 into about 200
So we are getting about 3.5 to 1.

I cant say he is fishy/passive. If he would be then probably we dont beat anything. But he was not passive enough and also didnt have a super wide range pre flop.
What do you guys think about my estimation of his range tho, if all that holds up its a pretty easy +EV call. Cant really read into betsizes as i saw him earlier betting with random nrs also with flushes or so. He has no idea about the pot size.

We like the odds and i put him on a range such as:
Board: JT4 9 2,
Equity Win
51.72% KK
48.28% QQ-TT, 44, AJs, KQs, QJs, JTs, T9s, AJo, KQo, QJo, JTo

I dont know how would he react on the turn if checked to him and he sits there with JQo,AJo and if he would decide to bet against 2 players.

Thank you for any opinion you have, GL
Also any thoughts how to make future HHs more better to read etc are greatly appreciated.

An older man in this situation on the river has KQ or at least two-pair pretty much 100% of the time. River is a fold. Average LLSNL villains are not capable of merging their ranges and betting one-pair hands on the river, on this type of board, for value.

If it was me I would be bet/folding all 3 streets in this spot. There is no reason not to bet the turn for value. You are still getting value from FD's and onepair+straightdraw hands. If someone has you beat they will most likely let you know by raising, after which you can confidently fold. You said you check/called the turn because you thought his range was considerably wide, but his calling range on the turn is much wider than his betting range. For example, he probably checks FD's behind when checked to, but will call if you bet 1/2pot.

Not betting the turn only results in two outcomes, both of which suck: 1. you miss value against hands you are ahead of that check behind, or 2. You get into this spot.

would definitely size your open larger from utg. you don't mention dynamics, but assuming your at your typical 1/2 table, your going to end up multiway here and put yourself in some difficult positions post flop.

turn i'd rather b/f than c/c. you can't expect someone to bet worse for you, and it could easily check through and you allow your opponents a free card. you have to make your commitment plans otf based on your opponents and stack sizes as to if you can profitably get it in against them by the river.

Thank you for good answers. Now i see where i made my mistake.

But about the opening size the avg stacks are only 100-200 tho so 50-100BB and i open a lot of hands and huge part of those hands play well in multi-way pots. So should i still increase my raise size or 4x should be good?
Nothing to mention about the table dynamics pretty standard table, was surprised that i got 3 callers tho it wasnt such a loose table atm.

Just as that particular hand went he had 44 and when i tanked forever on the river and finally called i was totally wrong about my in-game estimations. I was sure this terrible board is not good for slowplaying and even he would raise there with his set. But obv not as a standard low stakes player.

And as far as it goes for post-hand analysis yea i put him on too wide of a range to justify my moves. Not reasonable tho and should have folded in that case for sure.

b/f turn is definitely better than c/c, but honestly I might just c/f. With 2 callers on a scary board for 1-pair (for them as well as you) it's very likely one of them has 2p+ when they bet into 2 opponents. I'm not sure where you stand against their calling range though.

I'd definitely bet a blank turn, but 9/Q/A are pretty bad for you.

Just to continue the discussion about the exact hand.
We need to win like 22% of the times on the river for it to be profitable.
Lets give him a super strong range:

MP2 15.00% KK
MP3 85.00% JJ-TT, 44, AJs, KQs, KQo

And just if we would add some more weird random hands can this exact call on the river even become 0ev or am i just trying too much to justify the bad play?

There probably isn't a huge difference between calling and folding on the river EV-wise. The turn decision is much more important here

Thank you for really good answers that made me think in a better way.
Thread over :-)

i b/f the turn

please don't check turn.