I'm not sure if this hand is really obvious, but I'm trying to plug some leaks and save money/get value wherever I can.

Villain looks mid to late 20's. He sat down a few orbits ago. I don't have any clear notes, but he seems competent and reasonably tight (i.e. not a lag, not a station as far as I can tell). I'm assuming he must have a reasonably good PF hand to cold call from the SB here with limpers.

Effective stacks around $180

2 players limp
Hero raises to $14 with KK
SB (Villain) calls
BB and limpers fold.

Given how 1/2 plays I plan to commit on a non-ace board with an SPR of 6.

Pot ~30
Flop: Q85
Villain checks:
Hero bets $22
Villain calls $22

Good flop for me - pretty safe and no obvious draws. I should probably have bet more, but I have a bad habit of betting 2/3. I think hero calls with mid to weak Q's, Maybe JJ TT if he doesn't 3b pre, 8's, and MAYBE 5's.

Pot ~$74
Turn A
Villain checks:
Hero checks:

I thought at this point I'm only getting 1 street of value, so I checked b/c I figured it's easier for him to call a river bet. Does anyone bet here?

Pot~$74
River: Q
Villain: donks $35
Hero: ?

At first I thought this was an easy call, but on second thought I'm not really sure. I don't beat any of his value range, unless he thinks he's betting JJ-99 or a pair of 8's for "value," when it's really hard for me to call with something worse. The only draw was 76 for an OESD, but I don't think it's super likely he cold called OOP in the SB with 76s.

My line does look super weak, and I only have to be right 33% of the time, but should I expect standard 1/2 semi-decent players with no history of bluffing/aggression to show up with 98s or TT here 33% of the time?

Just wondering if this is a snap call or if there should be any thought given to folding.

Well to fully understand where Villain is coming from, we need more info on the table conditions. Is this a full table? What is your position? What is your table presence? What is Villain's table presence?

I'm fine with pre-flop, flop and turn.

I prefer a fold on the river because so far he seems solid and we're not really deep enough for him to be getting funky with T9,JT,J9. Also villain knows that Ax type hands are still a large part of our range despite our check behind on the turn (and he's not expecting us to fold those).

If we were deeper and villain had shown signs of getting out of line I wouldn't mind a call here because with deeper stacks it becomes more likely he can have JT, JT, J9, T9, JJ,TT,99.

But the key thing about this hand is that we did a big raise preflop that weights us towards Ax hands... many of which we check back on the turn (because we want to get value on the river from e.g. KQ/QJ/JJ/TT/99 and because we're a little afraid of AQ). Villain knows this but he looks like he's betting for value anyway.

Villain is never value betting Worse than Qx here. Any Ax that called the flop (asides from AQ) has their kicker counter-fitted (they're not calling with Ax no pair). I'd call personally and expect to see basically Qx or nothing.

yeah this spot sucks, problem is there isn't much he should be c/c on the flop with here other than Qx and maybe 99 TT and the occasional set.

I understand the turn check thinking you are just folding everything in his range you beat so your not value betting.

meh I always level myself into calling here and am almost never happy with the result, unless you have a read that villain can turn like 99 tt into a bluff here IDK what you beat really. maybe I am just being weak-tight.

live players surprise me sometimes though, often they just ignore showdown value and just bet when the think they have the best hand without really thinking about WTf they are doing.

There is nothing we beat.

Fold river imo.

His range:
55, 88-JJ, AQ, AJ, KQ.
He would have 3 bet AK considering if he flats and the limpers flat he basically burned money oop. That reason alone I feel he has 88 most likely. Also 55 and AQ/KQ is likely too. The reason I don't feel 55 is a stretch is there was two limpers then a raise, if he expects limper A and B to call he has the odds to set mine, plus the dead money in the pot. Given the post flop action I exclude 22-44, 66, 77 from his set mining range because they would have folded flop.

I agree that you look rather bluffy and you only have to be right 33% of the time, but if he was floating an ace he hit it on the turn. If hes doing this with 99-JJ hes quite ballsy and wreckless, which doesn't fit villain.

Fold, as painful as it is. Don't tell anybody, just erase that hand from your head and keep on grinding.

I think you have two choices on the turn:

1) bet/fold the turn if the player can have Qx. I will probably get that this is bad advice, but I know some players I would do this against. They are LAG and if you check behind this turn they will fire big OTR and take the pot from you.

2) check and prepare to call most rivers.

Taking line #2 against an unknown that is a river you can fold. Just say "I hate JJ" as you muck into the pile...

It's fold on the river. You have a bluff catcher. Is villain capable of turning his pocket pairs into bluffs?

to #1 yeah there are def players you can b/f this turn vs for value, plenty of loose passives are calling the turn with hands like QJ KQ etc, I am just not sure this is one of those villains.

I generally don't like to check turns to fold rivers seeing as that is just an invitation to get bluffed but this board is so dry IDK what the hell he could be turning into a bluff?

Sorry for the late reply - was away for a while.

I was in the HJ I believe during this hand. The table was actually running a little nitty and tight for a 1/2 NL table.

This player did not seem to be a LAG, and I hadn't seen him do anything out of line or particularly aggro. He seemed reasonably competent, which IMO means he's not betting a low PP or something here unless he's turning his hand into a bluff, which I don't know he does.

I was playing pretty straightforward TAG. I got stacked with a full house to a bigger full house, but then I made most of it back when I hit a set and stacked another guy.

I guess there's some players who would bluff here, but I honestly can't think of what he's calling with here that doesn't have me beat unless it's a pure float.

I actually called, although I before the end of the session I rethought and didn't really like it. If anyone is still interested I can post what he actually had.

anyone else think hero played this hand like a pair of 10s or Js? probe bet on the flop to see if we're behind. we get called. A comes. We clearly hate that. We check. Top card on flop pairs and villain instantly 'valuebets' his QT or QJ here? This is a snap bluff card for a lot of players after the check on the turn. Even the A is a good bluff card for him to get you off your hand.

so, yeah, there are hands you can beat here. it would go on the read i have on the villain.

i can see why you called. i can also see you being beat more than 2/3 of the time unfortunately. we make that argument based on the fact that the one time we fold is when we're good and got bluffed.

I'd like to hear results personally. I still like the call.

I use this line all the time. It's amazing how often the table believes me and nods sympathetically. It makes me look like one of them.

I usually bet/fold turn in a situation like this. While I agree with OP's reasoning for checking behind, I find that the chance of a river call doesn't make up for how lost I can be in situations like this one.

Anyone at 1/2 value betting JJ-99 here will be playing 3/5 next week. With so little experience against villian, we have to put him on a general 1/2 range. The donk is strong and the bet sizing is strong. In my experience he's got a Q or air, and rarely an A. I estimate a Q 80% of the time and air 10% and A 10%. I fold.

I would be interested to know the results.