I'm not sure if this hand is really obvious, but I'm trying to plug some leaks and save money/get value wherever I can.
Villain looks mid to late 20's. He sat down a few orbits ago. I don't have any clear notes, but he seems competent and reasonably tight (i.e. not a lag, not a station as far as I can tell). I'm assuming he must have a reasonably good PF hand to cold call from the SB here with limpers.
Effective stacks around $180
2 players limp
Hero raises to $14 with K
K
SB (Villain) calls
BB and limpers fold.
Given how 1/2 plays I plan to commit on a non-ace board with an SPR of 6.
Pot ~30
Flop: Q
8
5
Villain checks:
Hero bets $22
Villain calls $22
Good flop for me - pretty safe and no obvious draws. I should probably have bet more, but I have a bad habit of betting 2/3. I think hero calls with mid to weak Q's, Maybe JJ TT if he doesn't 3b pre, 8's, and MAYBE 5's.
Pot ~$74
Turn A
Villain checks:
Hero checks:
I thought at this point I'm only getting 1 street of value, so I checked b/c I figured it's easier for him to call a river bet. Does anyone bet here?
Pot~$74
River: Q
Villain: donks $35
Hero: ?
At first I thought this was an easy call, but on second thought I'm not really sure. I don't beat any of his value range, unless he thinks he's betting JJ-99 or a pair of 8's for "value," when it's really hard for me to call with something worse. The only draw was 76 for an OESD, but I don't think it's super likely he cold called OOP in the SB with 76s.
My line does look super weak, and I only have to be right 33% of the time, but should I expect standard 1/2 semi-decent players with no history of bluffing/aggression to show up with 98s or TT here 33% of the time?
Just wondering if this is a snap call or if there should be any thought given to folding.