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1/2 KK facing river bet on ugly board 1/2 KK facing river bet on ugly board

10-24-2019 , 11:38 AM
uncapped 1/2
Villain has been pretty active but had it at showdowns. Didnt show down a bluff so far, ~1k€
Hero has a kinda tight image and didnt 3b much, ~900€

Villain raises 10€ in mp, 1 caller, hero 3b to 32€ in co with KK, both call

Flop (99€) Q95
check check, hero cbets 50€, only villain calls

Turn (199€) Q95Q
Villain checks, hero checks back

River (199€) Q95Q8
Villain bets 110€, hero?
1/2 KK facing river bet on ugly board Quote
10-24-2019 , 11:43 AM
Pretty standard call imo. He can be betting TT/JJ for thin value or a bunch of other hands as bluffs. He mostly only has AQ, KQ, QJ, QQ, 99 as value. And we only need to be good 25% of the time.
1/2 KK facing river bet on ugly board Quote
10-24-2019 , 11:53 AM
40+ pre with a caller in between and this deep.

b/f turn. being ip means we can ck back river if we want

AP gotta call after ck turn. sucks cuz J10 got there but we are ahead of too much still to just completely give up.
1/2 KK facing river bet on ugly board Quote
10-24-2019 , 12:11 PM
Notice that we have the diamond K, which blocks flushes at least a little bit.

The strongest hand that we beat is JJ. Do you think the villain would take this line with JJ? If so, then we probably should call. It is read-dependent. You say the villain has generally "had it" and you haven't seen them bluff. How weak have they been when they had it? Do they push for thin value?

I think we need a read that the villain goes for thin value in order to call here. As it is, with the read the OP provided, it looks like a fold to me.
1/2 KK facing river bet on ugly board Quote
10-24-2019 , 04:52 PM
Not sure that I would call it a standard call as I feel like this will be very villain dependent. Specifically, is our villain capable of finding thin value with hands like JJ/TT with this sizing, AND are they capable of calling out of position with a draw/pair and then turning it into a bluff when they miss otr. Hands like T9, J9, 78, etc. may feel inclined to just check for sdv and hope we check back. If we feel our opponent is capable of doing this (especially bluffing with missed draws) then you can probably find a call given that we only need to be good 25%. However, if we don't think villain has both of these moves in his repertoire, then we're going to be very hard pressed to find our 25%.

And honestly, me personally, if we haven't seen villain show down any significant bluffs yet, this might just be a fold given that the typical 1/2 player won't be turning pairs into bluffs all that often when being shown weakness and will just check to us.
1/2 KK facing river bet on ugly board Quote
10-25-2019 , 10:19 AM
I call. V could easily put you on AK and/or think his JJ/TT is good. He could also be semi-bluffing w/ the Ad. Just because you haven't seen him bluff doesn't mean he doesn't bluff.

KK is just too strong to fold the way the hand was played.
1/2 KK facing river bet on ugly board Quote

      
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