You may be right, I'm using the numbers from your post, right above mine. You know the one that said 26% fold, and you prove I'm wrong by changing the number to 50%?

You're acting as if you had zero equity before your push. That's what makes your "analysis" for your poor play look so good to you.

yeah, i'm disappointed. i expected a flop of KKJ or QT9

I was thinking more like JJJ. I had a good chuckle at this thread actually

+1 really. I'm only making this move post flop against guys I have a really tight read on and I know they're folding OPs a fair bit. otherwise the math may say it's +ev just based on the fact his Cbet % is likely to be high HU, but it'll be close and it introduces a lot of variance into ur game. and since we somehow showed up with KJ here prolly only one card at most is live if he calls...

1. No. I fold KQ here too.

2. I'd rather call here against a deep stacked villain than a short stacked villain.

Results: I ship, turn is 2, River is 3. KJ is good, villain doesn't show.

i think you got lucky and bumped into the narrow section of his range that is XY

*grunch*

Im sure it's been said by other posters many times by now, but WTF is this???
Snap fold PF. A trouble hand OOP against an unknown? Horribad.

AP, the crai screams draw (combo, pair with FD, FD with overs), so if he's got a made hand, he will prob snap. If he's just making a standard c-bet, he's obv folding. At least you have some equity to fall back on if called, but it seems like we are risking a lot to win a little here.

Post Grunch edit:
No.

So if you played it perfectly and your elaborate EV calculations show it to be the perfect play, why did you post the hand in the first place? Did you mean to post to BBV and misclicked by accident or something?

So you think it's probably -EV to stack this hand WHEN YOU HIT A PAIR, but you're perfectly happy to stack it when you have 2 overs and a gutshot? Um . . .

I think you said it yourself. Your hand is not that great pre. Even if you pair, you may be dominated. Most of the time you will not hit a pair or a draw, and you will have to fold causing yourself to throw away 18% of the ES.

But most notably, if you're calling to expect to STACK OFF ANY PAIR, you're assuming he's going to run with the hand. You can't simultaneously expect him to pay you off when you hit a pair, and instafold to your CR when you don't hit a pair. Either he's tied to the pot, in which case you need to hit a pair, or he's often folding, in which case you don't make much when you hit.

Final note - any draw he called with not k high has pretty good odds. 87o is 40%, 6h7h is actually a 54% favorite. If he has AK and stubbornly hangs on, he has 70% equity. Literally the only hands that you smash are QJo and J8o. So if called, even when K hi is "ahead," you're often not much of a fav if at all.

Wow, I'm surprised people are folding KQ here in the SB. With KQ, pot will be $30 and he'll have only $65 left. Stacks are tiny compared to this huge pot, and stacking off with TPGK on the flop should be a winning play in this situation over the long run. Not to mention we can also profitably c/rai on flops where we don't hit top pair, such as J10X or 910X.

I still think KQ and AJ are calls. KJ and A10 are a bit tougher...

"So if you played it perfectly and your elaborate EV calculations show it to be the perfect play, why did you post the hand in the first place? Did you mean to post to BBV and misclicked by accident or something?"

I posted it to teach some 2+2ers that in heads up pots, you don't always have to c/f when you completely miss the flop. Many players make the mistake of only calling a c/r here with 10-X+, or flush draws. When this is their only calling range, then your fold equity is pretty high and you can exploit them by check raising all in every time.

Example: You call a raise in the BB with 23suited. Villain raised from the button, and he's loose pre and c-bets alot. Flop comes Q76. Pot is $10, you have $60 behind. You check, villain bets $10. You can go all in here every time and show a long term profit if villain restricts his calling range to only Q-X+.

So post in BBV and brag about the hand you played? Why post it here and ask about it like you're genuinely curious about if the play was good, and then tell us you're certain it was good and you're just educating us.

I'll admit, the ability to sometimes win at showdown and sometimes steal can add up. But that's not what you were saying here, at least initially.

In the beginning, you claimed to be calling KJ to try to hit a favorable flop, or you're basically done with the hand. So you're not CRAI any flop. You're calling KJo OOP to basically play fit or fold post, plus maybe a few OESD or 2 overs + gutshot flops.

But earlier in the thread you were saying you believe he has a loose range, and you can get paid off if you hit a king or a jack. Now you're saying that it's a straight steal play b/c he almost always bet/folds anyway it's a pure steal play.

I guess this play can work sometimes. I think what we're trying to say is this is not the IDEAL guy to do it against, since he's so short and he frequently calls you. In fact, your steal didn't even work since you got called anyway (the fact that KJ hi was best irrelevant, since CRAI with K high for value wasn't part of your considerations anyway).

I'll join the chorus of fold pre. In fact, if you forced me to make this call, I would almost prefer to select two random cards out of the muck and play with them than with KJo OOP.

Poor play occasionally wins. That's what keeps fish like you in the game. Good for everyone!

OP, the principle that you are describing is correct - people often underestimate the EV of hands where we have decent FE and decent equity when called. This is especially true in 3-bet pots where there is a lot of dead money to be made. In a sense, this hand plays like a 3-bet pot since effective stacks are so small.

However in this hand, the principle is completely misapplied. The problem is the lack of FE. When you call the initial pfr with the intention of crai a flop like this, you have to anticipate that Villain is going to make a c-bet that commits him to the pot. In fact, even if you are ahead, he may have enough equity to call your shove. You would have been in that position yourself if you had donked and Villain had shoved. For a play like this to work, you would need to have big enough stacks that Villain can c-bet with his whole range and be able to fold a lot of the time, but not so big that the amount you are risking with the crai swallows up the dead money, if that makes sense.

Note also that being suited helps a lot when contemplating this sort of play, since not only does a flush draw add a lot to your equity, but even a backdoor flush draw often can add enough equity to turn a play from negative to positive EV.

Sigh, ok here's my last arguement for this hand. Here's two scenarios for villain.

Scenario 1 = He's a super nit, raising 10% of hands (88+, A9suited+, Q10suited+, AJo+, KQo+). On the flop he's c-betting whether he hits or misses which is a common move. He's calling 13/21 or 62% of the time. When he calls, I have 28.3% equity. I'm assuming he folds ONLY no pair, no straight draw hands and pocket 8s. I'm assuming he calls with KQ and QJsuited.

So .62(.283*$95 - .762*65) = -$14.012
.38 * $45 = +$17.1
Total EV = + $3.088

Scenario 2 = He's loose pre and is raising wider. Also c-betting whether he hits or misses. We'll say he's raising 20% of his hands. This is a more common raise % for an average player in MP from my experience. He's calling 28/40 hands, or 70% of the time. I'm assuming he calls with 9-X. Now my equity when called should go up slightly.

So .70(.352*$95 - .648*$65) = -$6.062
.3($45) = +$13.5
Total EV = +$7.438

Conclusion = Whether he's raising a very tight range pre, or raising 30% of hands pre, check raise all in on the flop is superior to c/f. So CRAI > C/F > C/C.

The problem with your analysis is that it only works if you get to the flop and you get that flop. You should not get to the flop, and you were super lucky to get a flop that allowed you any +EV options. We are not hating on the crai near as much as we're hating on the PF call.

Yeah I'm talking about postflop only in that last analysis. Btw, I still disagree with everyone on preflop. Only if he's raising like 10% of hands does KJo become a fold preflop. If he's raising 15% or more hands preflop, I can call him and catch him with K9suited or QJ often enough when we both flop our pair. KJo has too much equity to fold pre against a somewhat wide range.

OK, man. w/e. Against a shorty you don't have the RIO problems so much, but there are few flops you're going to love, and any c-bet he makes basically commits him. I still hate the call, and will continue to.

lol poor yoda always gets flamed for bbv

I think what OP is trying to say here is that he is the exception to the rule. Not one person agrees with his complete line/analysis of hand. Thank goodness he's informing the masses.

At the risk of encouraging him further, I'll ask 1 more question.

Yoda, was your primary plan and intention to hit a hand here and stack, or was your plan to CR bluff him when he cbets his total air?

You're basically claiming you're going to do both, but you haven't explained if, given your reads, he is usually stacking or usually folding here. Do you expect him to mostly bet/fold? Bet/call? Check back?

I'm not trying to be a jerk. I'm really trying to understand your thinking so I can give you the best advice I can, not that I'm very good anyway.

My plan was to get it in on the flop with top pair, and have it be a reasonably +EV spot. But if I get good flop texture and villain seems weak, I can crai on a bluff/semibluff and have it be slightly +EV. I'd only c/f flop if I flop absolutely nothing and the flop is one that is likely to help villain.

You do realize that's going to be most flops right? I just think your logic is a little flawed.

Congrats on winning the hand. I guess I'm just pointing out that:

You're claiming he bet/folds a ton.
Villain had a hand that COULDN'T BEAT K HIGH
Villain called anyway.
I think this hand shows you do not have much FE here.

Anyway, just my 2 cents. If it's working for you then keep doing it. Everyone plays a different style I guess.

good for table image either way.. and even better if you win and show the hand!

The whole table thinking you're a donk when you actually are is not good for your table image.