Reads: This is literally his 3rd hand. Hand 1, he posts and I raise UTG to $15, he calls then folds flop. Hand 2 he folds.

I'm in the SB with KJ. Folds to V1 who makes it $15. I'm the only caller. Pot is $32 ($27 after rake and the postflop action) and he has $70 left. Flop comes 1095. This is basically a dream flop (besides getting my pair of course). I check, villain bets $15, I ship.

I'm acting on the info I have from his appearance, young white guy, and that he's been in 2/3 hands. I'm hoping he folds like 50% of the time here, is that reasonable?

I fold preflop. Calling $14 more against an opponent with KJ OOP against an opponent with only $70 behind is lighting money on fire.

The shove is bleh. I guess you have some FE. Instead of shoving I will usually make it $40-$45 in spots like this. I feel the shove looks a lot like a weak/draw hand and you're trying to force him out. A smaller raise looks stronger. It's no difference to you though. If you make it $40-$45 and he shoves you're not folding for $25 more.

But yeah, fold pre all day. Even if you were both 100bb deep and suited this isn't a profitable call.

With KJo it's usually -EV to get all the money in postflop with an SPR of 2, UNLESS the villain is loose. Here, he's raising in the hijack so his range should be a bit wider than if he were UTG. Also, he's played 2/3 hands. Is this enough information to play this hand w/ the plan of stacking off on the flop with TPGK?

Bolded 1 - Maybe. It's still not a great spot to call. Against unknowns I'm still folding this to $15 until I have a better idea of what he does raise there. The casinos I play at the standard raise is bet $8-$12. Maybe the table dynamics were different there. I would still never call this. Against a loose villain that you know is raising super wide I would 3 bet rather than flat.

Bolded 2 - Ok, I missed he was in the HJ. Still though ^^^^^^^^ all that.

Bolded 3 - 3 hands is never enough information for anything unless he open shoves those 3 hands. For all you know he has been sitting there for 3 hours playing super tight and just happened to pick up two big hands in short order. If I did flat, I would stack off with any pair usually. In this hand though you don't have TP, you have two overs and a gutshot. In no way is this an easy stack off.

is this a joke??? stack sizes??? fold pre, fold flop regardless

if that flop's a dream, what would you consider it when you flop a boat?

Your theory is all wrong sir. No way this is a dream flop. Pushing here is an amateur mistake. Any decent player is going to snap you off with any pair.

fold pre

LOL I always love yoda's threads the most

+1

In his two hands at the table, you have played both pots vs him? He is probably stacking off here with any pair and any good draw.

Fold Pf obviously.

Yodachoda - The reason for the season.

I don't even think you need him to fold 50% for this to be profitable, but admittedly I haven't done the math. I probably fold preflop though.

Hey all. When I said dream flop I meant dream "no pair" flop. Maybe Q 10 5 rainbow would be a little bit better though. But here we have probably ~30% equity against his all in range. That doesn't sound like much, but combined with fold equity makes it so c/r flop >>> c/f flop.

Really, I made this thread because I was kinda unsure about preflop. Also, I made it because I suspected many players would say to c/f flop. I made this thread to let you know that you have a leak! C/f flop is a mistake because c/r is more profitable. But if I'm wrong, and his range is always 100% A10, JJ-AA, sets, nut flush draws, then c/f is right.

You don't know any of this. Against an aggro villain who raises when folded to in LP most of the time and c-bets most of the time, sure I would c/r here, but you have THREE hands on the guy. You can't give him a range or say how often you think he folds when you have nothing.

Like previously said, anybody with half a brain is calling you with any pair here, and a lot of villains at 1/2 will call with any 2 overs.

15/85=18% of stack... fold pre

I don't call raises with trouble hands in position, let alone OOP. I know he's only playing with 42 BB, but I'm folding preflop and moving on.

I wouldn't necessarily call this a dream flop. We've got a gutshot, a backdoor flush draw (that may or may not be good), and two overs (that may or may not be good). I'd estimate about 6ish outs, for 25% equity to the river. Meh. Obviously if villain has whiffed with air then he'll have to fold. But any overpair is obviously calling and this board also hit some creative hands he may have been raising. I have no clue of the math behind it (FE + our equity), but does it really look that good? I just check/fold the flop but I wouldn't have made it that far to begin with.

ETA: Yoda, maybe do a stove exercise here? Might be difficult because you'd have to give him a very wide range of hands (opening from LP). His air will have to fold, I guess we can assume TP / draws are always continuing, underpairs are kinda 50/50. Plus our 25%ish equity if we're behind. Maybe flop isn't as bad as it looks.

GcluelessNLnoobG

yoda...unless stacks are different, this call preflop is just megabad.

there is so little to say about this thrad besides fold pre.

it's tough to make threads to only discuss postflop when preflop is this bad.

This is an insta fold pre.

Snap fold pre. Lol at he's been in 2/3 hands so what does that have to do with anything? I read this thread and instantly thought it was a level

I fully expected to open this thread and see a board of AQT with a flush draw on board or something ahhahahahaha.
9T5 is close to same thing though.
Lol KJo is easy fold to a short stack, let alone you're oop. C/r this flop so sillllly.
You barely have any FE since he's so short. Not to mention you've played 3 hands with him so you have no idea what his pre flop range is, let alone what his stacking off range is postflop.
You made a bad play and it probably worked, grats. Not the first time something like that has happened.
I just don't see how you could think this play would be profitable over the long run.

KQ is a call preflop correct? Looks like general consensus is KJo is a fold preflop. If villain were an old, tight nit whose playing 10% of his hands, I'd fold preflop. I'd also fold preflop if villain had $100 behind rather than $65 behind.

"ETA: Yoda, maybe do a stove exercise here? Might be difficult because you'd have to give him a very wide range of hands (opening from LP). His air will have to fold, I guess we can assume TP / draws are always continuing, underpairs are kinda 50/50. Plus our 25%ish equity if we're behind. Maybe flop isn't as bad as it looks."

We'll say he raises 15% of his hands. Reasonable right? Now on the flop, he's making the standard c-bet. That's 30 hands he could have. He's folding 8 of those (no pair no draw). So he folds 26% of the time. When he calls, he has

88+,AhQh,AhJh,ATs,Ah7h,KQs,KTs,QTs+,JTs,ATo,KQo,KT o,QTo+,JTo

FE = .26*$45 = +$12
.74 (.346*$95 - .654*$65) = -$7.1336

Total = +$4.8664

If you've got 34.6% equity after the shove, then you should have at least that equity or more before the shove.

If so, you have more than .346 * 45 or 15.50 in equity before your bet. So your bet has cost you at least 15.50 -4.87 or 10.63 LOSS.

That makes zero sense and it sounds like you are just pulling numbers out of your butt.

And actually if he is raising 66+, A10o+ preflop, then that's 9 pair hands and 5 non pair hands. This is actually a super tight range. Of those, he's folding 77, 66, AK, AQ, AJ, KQ. That's 7 out of 14 hands he folds, or 50% fold equity.

So half the time I win $45. Half the time I have 32% equity to win $95, and 68% of the time I lose $65. Total EV now is $15.6.