Villain just sat. No particular reads, except listening to him commiserate with buddy who just lost a buy-in to me before villain sat, agreeing that there was no way buddy could get away from trips with top-kicker.

Buddy seems to have clue about bet sizing, so I assume Villain does too, but be otherwise chasey like rest of table. My default assumption is they are one step above the whales at table.

Villain is in HJ+1 with ~$200
I am Button and cover (ldo) with J J

5 million limpers to Hero, who raises to $12 and gets called by villain and one other.

Pot: ~$30
Flop T 8 3

Checked to Hero who bets $20. This is bigger than a normal flop bet on this table, which is usually $10-$15, regardless of pot size.

One fold, Villain calls.

Pot: ~$70
Turn 5

Villain checks, Hero bet $40, Villain calls.

I think this bet is a little undersized. I had estimated the pot at $60 at the time, but adding up the action it must have been closer to $70.

Pot: $150
River: 10

Villain donks for $70

Hero: ???

See other thread about rasing pre.

Your posts are good and contain a lot more info than most but is anybody in $1/2 NL a whale? :-)

As for hand, bet bigger for value in these games on all streets and fold this river.

Not sure what you mean here. I did raise pre.

As for other hand you commented on, I am not actually hero in that hand...

I think u are toast here IMO. I don't know the convo u overheard would make me abut worried.

His line is perfect to get value from an overpaid or even an A once the ten drops.

So, after this hand, I overhear villain and buddy talking about PSRs, flops likeyhood of hitting ranges, ABC poker, etc. I give them a "sup bros?" and get a "first rule of fight club" response.

Knowing that villain is a 2+2 reader, how does that change our outlook. If we'd known this before the hand above, does it change out read?

Probably a donk, misapplying everything he read. The ones talking loudly about it are usually no better than the 60 years old telling everybody how they saved money by limping aa when it got outflopped.

And what I meant about preflop is that I often expect 5 million +2 (SB, BB )callers when you size it like this pre flop and you end up with awkward SPRs post flop. Make it $20 and if they all call you have one PSB left and if less call (2) 50 on flop leaves good 3/4 PSB on turn.

In this hand you get two callers so the situation is different but i think you need to think exactly what you hope to accomplish with you pre flop sizing cause for me this sizing is the worst against setminers.

To me, this superficial 2+2 knowledge turns the river into a call. It increases the chance of FPS and thus widens his range.

Against average $1/2 NL player, I think this is a definite fold. If he was bluffing a missed FD (which most would never do), he would be shoving here. With the 1/2 pot bet, it would be for value with a T almost every time.

Against a thinking player, I can see a much wider range.

Thoughts?

Any further thoughts on the after the fact read, and how it might change this hand, or should I go ahead an post results?

I think your bet sizing is perfect preflop and on all streets. They just don't bluff that much in this spot, its a fold.

If you didn't know he was a 2+2er during the hand, dont fret about it, just went with all the info you had at the time.
I do agree that it becomes a call with this information just because of the amount of combos of draws that missed, but not a super profitable one because anyone's range is going to also consist of a lot of T's here.

Depends on how good he is, but he should be donking that river with the majority of his range if you will fold an overpair because you can have a draw, air that beats his draw, and you rarely have trips.

If he is thinking enough, you should definitely call. Folding is okay too if you just think he is passive and will lead trips here and not a bluff. Very simple.

But against anyone decent, folding JJ here is definitely imbalanced, but balance is only relevant if it is.

Results:

Hero folds. Villain shows 78off and tells buddy "see, it can be done. You just have to time it right."

Hero changes mental tag on villain and prob gets amount of pot back out of him over the session, in many small chunks.

'sup bro.

You got my hand wrong, it was a suited connector (busted flush draw). Not that it makes my play a winning one but it's a bit more understandable (obv the river card was perfect in this situation).

And you seem to have omitted the fact that we were drinking pretty heavily We were a lot more talkative than would be considered +ev but basically there to have fun. Imo the fishiest part of the evening was how you and me probably scared off that old guy to the right of me with our comments on his horrible plays. :-/

I'm not going to criticize you too badly, but I think you need to do a better job of calculating the pot sizes or remembering what you bet.

Preflop: You say 5 million limpers ... I'll cut that down to 5 ($10) and you raise to $12 and get 2 callers ($30 more, makes it $40, not $30 - not sure what the rake is where you play).

Flop you bet $20. 2/3 pot is fine; 1/2 pot is probably a little light. You get 1 caller, so the pot is $80ish, not $70.

Turn you bet $40. Again, basically half the pot. Pot is now $160ish.

River - he bets $70, less than half the pot. So you have to be right 1/3 of the time to make this a breakeven call.

Your villain was right - the 10 is the perfect card to bluff a thinking player. Well, what else was he calling me with if he bets? He had to have TPGK - QT, JT, KT, AT.

funny...

now that we have the other side of the story... I can understand the call on the flop somewhat but what was your plan on the turn when you called with 87 with no draws? What was your read on villain? were you going to bet any 8, 7 and any Q or spade on the river since villain's hand appeared to be over cards?

where does the brown trout sleep?

Yeah, I was a bit annoyed that you both ruined the game by scaring him off.

As I said, OP got my hand wrong. I had a flush draw (and 4 to straight) all through the hand and jack **** on the river. The 'genius' plan was to hit or drunken-balls-of-steel bluff the river on any scare cards.

Got it. Makes sense to me. I was trying to figure out how u could have paired and had the draw. Nothing wrong with your play. Thx

Yeah, true statement, but I didn't have that info yet at the time of the hand in question. I could have sworn your hand was 78o, though. Still, sick value bet bluff. If you'd shoved I would have read it for the standard busted draw bluff, but as played... nh.

One of you should hit me up with an invite to this game? I assuming this is in the Springs correct?

I was up at Cripple Creek. I'm pretty sure you have a standing invite.

reading old threads... (Sorry for the bump?)

Seriously, how in the world can V have 7 8 ? Something is off. Still hangover, may be

Also, your fold: What range did you put him on? There are 2 combinations of AT suited (you can include here KT, QT, 9T maybe?), and 6 ATo. Thats 32 combos against +-53 of combos in this somehow logical range: 99-88, 33, AsQs, As9s, KsQs, T8s, 97s, 7s6s, J9o, T8o, 97o, 87o. Isn't a call here a profitable one in the long run? Also, isn't exploitable your fold here?

bet 75 on the turn.

as played, probably should fold. but getting such a great price, really can't fault a call.

Holy thread necromancy! You analysis seems to miss that we lose to the T8 combos, though I think many of them would have raised turn to set up a river shove. Also, there should be a lot of T9 combos in there that we also lose to.

Yes the fold is exploitable, but that's really only an issue in reg vs. reg wars. Unless I know a V, I'm pretty confident that V doesn't know enough about me to exploit it, even if he's food enough to.

In this case V was good enough to rep the scare card realistically. Few LLSNL Vs are.