V: ~50 yrs old white guy. Loose passive preflop; post flop bluff with small bets (seen him bet SD 3 streets, each bet 1/3-1/2 pot) while value with big bets (2/3-3/4 pot when hit TP+). With middle strength hands (TPNK), usually check down. Occasionally steal pots when IP, but not too out of line.

H: mid-30 asian. Usually play LAG but been card dead for ~3hours so may have a TAG image. Shown KK and AK before.

Hand history:
effective stack ~300.
H at UTG was dealt JsJd and opened to 14 (V and several others are calling very widely pre and basically ignores the size when they decide to call). V calls from btn, others fold.

Flop: TsTd7d (31)
H bet 15, V calls.

Turn: Kc (61)
check, check.
Thoughts here: V should have many 7 in his range and will fold to a turn bet. H was ready to check-call, or bet almost any River to get value from 7x.

River: 2h (61)
H bets 25 as planned. V raises to 75

What do we do here? Does villain have more T or more bluff here? What sort of bluff hands make sense given his line? 98 seems to be the only reasonable combo, while he should have more Tx slow played Turn?

If he's passive and he has 7x he is flatting river, you have a bluff catcher. Has V shown any bluffs?

As for the rest of the line. I like the 7 BB open in EP, we got one button caller which is about the best we can hope for. I like a $20-25 flop bet. Half pot could look AKish, passive may float any pair, if you are trying to induce a call, I guess that's ok as we are strong but you are inviting some tougher spots. Turn, given your description of wanting to keep in marginal hands I like another 2/3 pot bet. If passive V can raise turn we can fist pump fold. If passive V can call turn we can x/eval river UI.

The only thing that makes sense is a boat. Why would he not bet a T on the turn with more straight draws available? He could be tricky. I'm very on the fence about this cause the line doesn't make sense but 1/2 villains generally don't bluff especially on rivers. I probably fold though cause it's probably 22 or a hand that was already a boat by the turn.

Yes I did see him once bluff at river with broken SD (I folded my mid pair on that hand and he showed me 65o on a 87xxx board). However, on that hand he did bet 3 streets (1/3 pot-1/3 pot-1/3 pot), not raising a bet.

I agree his line is very odd for a Tx hand, I'm not sure we have a good read on Villain. Checking turn makes it tougher to narrow in on.

Based on this I'm less convinced we are crushed, although we still could be. We've shown we can fold river to 1/3 pot when we have a pair. This river bet leaves us with $50 to call and $160 in the pot, it's pretty much 1/3... He could have missed diamonds and seen how soft you were playing the hand, if he's confident you don't have a T and he can triple barrel bluff a missed SD with 56o his range is wider than we think. I've also seen passive players turn over something silly like QQ in spots like this and still have us crushed.

The previous hand he didn’t see what I folded (he voluntarily showed me his bluff), so I don’t think he knows that I folded a pair. I agree he could be bluffing with random cards (v does behave a bit randomly).

As played I did fold. I was more leaning on playing conservatively and didn’t mind too much of losing some EV here. In general I do tend to fold more when playing live 1/2 and it’s pretty exploitable indeed - I just feel most villains are more likely passive than aggressive, until I have reads otherwise. As the result people generally don’t bluff enough to exploit my bet-fold strategy when looking for thin value.

I think river is a XC; JJ has too much sd to bet-fold OTR. V has showed ability to fire 3 streets with a draw, so he is definitely less passive than you give him credit for. OTR, I'm much more comfortable calling a single bet OOP than calling a XR.

Bold is gold

Agree. Thanks both!

Actually, after reading through my original notes again, I’m not sure if check-call river is the optimal play again. The villain will definitely not bet but call with 7x. No matter he may or may not bluff raise SD, I still think betting river with JJ is +EV, as long as he does call with all 7x and his preflop calling range contains many 7x (I’ve seen him calling 18 open with 43o, so 87/76/A7 are definitely in this range).

Or am I just too wishful thinking here?

You are overthinking at 1/2. OTT, your hand is a probably still best on a connected board, so I probably bet the turn for value.

V can have tons of draws, although you block many by having the Jd, so it's really close OTR and I probably fold at 1/2.

Interesting spot.

He could have quite a bit of 10x combos. DEFINITELY has more 10's in his range then you.

As played I like a bet/fold river line.

I think I like betting the turn as well putting max pressure on some pocket pair combos and charging 89 as well as any dd combos that he has.

Rarely calling the river after he raises you.

Think you played it okay overall

check call works as well given V's description

If there is a mistake in the hand, it is checking the turn. Great card for our range and V will certainly tell us if we are behind by raising our bet with Tx. If you are going to check a street, it should be the river.