1/2, 150$, just sat down, have only been here for 5 hands, recognize 3 people who don’t often manage to fold the flop with literally any pair or draw or overcard. Table is so far very loose passive pre, lot’s of limping/multiway flops, with impression that it’s totally normal for the table. No one seems to play well, most seem to play badly (with one irrelevant exception). I haven't played a hand yet, but I don't think anyone notices.

This is one of those hand where standard advice will be "bet more pre, as played pot / shove flop", but my read on the table (just how accurate it was I can't be certain) led me to think otherwise. I just thought it was a pretty crazy hand, and almost couldn't believe that my "plan" worked out (for better or for worse), so I'm posting it for any comments.

In the end the standard play is still probably the best advice one can offer, but in any case, I've been trying to go with my gut reaction in situations where I'm really uncertain about something; it usually works out, so I decided to "experiment" a bit here, though it's way broader a situation then my "gut reactions" are usually relevant to. Anyway, whatever:

UTG QQ

I raise to 13. I’m sure advice here will be to raise more pre, and yes I probably should, but I still feel okay with it. I will often get several callers, SPR will be pretty small; if an A or K flops I can still easily get away, if the board is extremely draw heavy I’m prepared to get away; I feel okay about going multiway getting a pretty small SPR and just playing the hand. If no overcards come I can stack someone's top pair, I trust myself to know if I'm beat.

So, I raise to 13. EVERYONE calls, 8 way to the flop:

(104$) Q97

Okay, currently have the nuts, that's great, but there are obviously multiple draws out against me. I have about 135 eff. behind (2-3 players have a bit less), blinds check to me. I probably should just shove right here, or at the very least bet a minimum of 80, but even that isn’t really enough for my liking. My advice to myself in this thread would be to either bet 100 or shove. I think this is obvious. It’s my idea of super standard play at this kind of table in this spot. But I don’t do this, I semi-tank and my thinking was as follows:

1. If I shove, a flush draw may very well call me just as often as if I make a 1/2 pot bet (bear with me! I know this sounds terrible.), especially if it’s a combo draw, or has an A or K that they might just hope could be good if it pairs, or so on. If one of the 3 players I know has a flush draw, then they are definitely calling no matter what; the others I can’t be certain, which is important, because I have no idea who might have what kind of draw, but my feeling is they'll call the shove, so I'm deciding to trust that feeling. In short, at least 3 players never fold a good draw here, and I'm guessing there are at least 2 who aren't ever folding either. Maybe too extreme, but it's what I was going with.
***FURTHERMORE, and this is what’s actually relevant, the 3 players I know are among the first AND last to act; if I open shove they won’t call with a gutshot or pair or whatever they could possibly have, they will manage to see that I look super strong, and will lose hope for their hand. If I bet smaller they will not lose hope, and call. If there are other callers they will definitely (I think) call with anything that has a reasonable chance of winning a big pot, which this already is. This includes gutshots, bare A-high backdoor clubs, 1 pair hoping to improve to 2 or better. So by betting smaller I could just get a string of calls and build a huge pot where I never had any good chance (by my estimation) of getting the inevitable (again my estimation) "strong" draw (9+ outs) to fold anyway.

So very simply:

2. If I make a smaller bet I will still get called by any strong draws, but likely some weaker ones as well. If I think there’s a decent chance a flush draw is not ever folding, I’d rather try to make as many people as possible want to call with any piece of the flop, build as large a pot as I can, and then shove literally any turn. I understand it’s completely illogical to justify not charging a draw with the reasoning that said draw is never folding anyway, but in this case by not charging the draw as heavily as possible just because I’m scared of the high probability it's out there, I can get a lot more money in the pot. If the draw really wasn’t ever folding, then this is great for me in the current situation.

So basically, my convoluted plan (miraculously?) worked! though I still don’t know what would have happened if I shoved the flop. I bet 60, and 3 people call.

Turn (340) Qh9d7d 6d

Well, terrible terrible turn card, I’m definitely now behind, but I have 75$ behind, no one is going to fold, if I shove and get just 1 caller I’ll have 5.5:1 odds which are just enough to draw with my 10 outs; given the action I’ll probably get 3 callers and more like 7:1 to draw, so I just shove, and indeed get called in two spots.


This could have gone terribly wrong if I only got one or two callers on the flop and wasn't getting pot odds to justify me drawing to improve. It could have been destined to go terribly wrong no matter what given that my reasoning for acting as I did is probably unnecessarily complicated, smells of FPS (though it's not actually that fancy, at bottom), I found the whole thing just bizarre.

Preflop sizing seems fine, I would just open shove the flop since I'd do it with any Q+ or draw. Betting less than all-in versus 8 people pretty much has to be the nuts but also gives everyone correct drawing odds.

Yeah, I love the open shove, but no one at this table is paying attention to what else you might do it with, though maybe they'll suspect a draw and so on, like people do. It's what I was wishing I had done when I didn't win the hand, so I was getting a bit tilted/doubting myself, and just left.

And yeah, I do know I'm giving everyone (almost) correct drawing odds (even a gut-shot? Maybe with implied odds but I didn't think about it), that was kind of the point, I guess. Get called by everyone with any draw, rather then one person with the draw most likely to get there. This plan was so successful that I managed to give Myself correct drawing odds on the turn. Some irony for me.

If I shove the flop and get called then the draw is making a mistake, and I have a winning play. Though I guess my thinking is that, in actuality, the draw either gets there or it doesn't, so when it does or doesn't get there, I might as well have as much money in the pot as possible. Although I'm giving them good odds, it doesn't change the outcome. It actually doesn't matter whether they make a mistake by calling against the odds, all that matters is how much I'll win when it misses vs. how much I won't win (I Lose the same amount in all cases) when it hits.

I agree with you 100% but very few, if anyone else will agree.

Nobody with a good chance of winning the pot is going to fold. So the only question is will we desperately try to told out all the hand that are drawing almost dead?

I'm glad you agree, I was expecting 0% rate of agreement.

Though I don't understand the second part of your post, the hands drawing almost dead I want in the pot with me, the hands with a good chance of winning (i.e. flush draws, combos) probably aren't folding. So it's more like I'm desperately trying to get calls from the hands that are drawing almost dead, just to get more money in the pot since it's all going in anyway. The risk being allowing someone to call correctly with their flush draw, which seems more like a technicality in such an unusual situation.

EDIT: unless we're desperately trying to fold out a flush draw, which isn't quite drawing dead. I could do that, but I don't think it would work very often at all, and when it does I just won a kind of small pot. On the other hand, I could potentially double through multiple players by making an enticing bet that makes it impossible to fold later. It's like a 100bb profit vs a 250+bb profit, vs a 70bb loss in both cases. But if it didn't work and I wasn't getting odds to draw to justify continuing on the turn I would have been hating myself for it, but then again if the club didn't hit the turn I'm happy.

Are you shoving the flop with KQ/AQ/QQ+? They are pretty much the same hand as QQ on this board since the people calling are going to mostly have draws. Sure you can boat with QQ, but it's not a massive difference and IMO you should be shoving all value hands. Highly doubt you are betting $60 with AA into the entire table on a draw heavy board 8 or 9 ways. If they're calling $60 they're probably calling the $135 too. Everyone loves a chance to win a big pot.

The difference is actually enormous though, AQ or AA are about a 55/45 favorite against Kc2c, and 65/35 over Ac2c. QQ is a 75% favorite over both of them, and still a 66% favorite over strong draw like KcTc that is flipping with AQ.

Your right I'm probably never betting 60 into this with AA, but any one pair hand is extremely vulnerable if I get multiple callers. The guy drawing with a 94o hoping to hit 2 pair or better could actually win with his 2 pair or better. So actually against someone with a flush draw, someone with a pair, and someone with a gutshot, QQ is STILL at 56% equity, while AA or AQ have only 30%, and are BEHIND the same flush draw (Ac2c) that they were slightly ahead of heads up, the latter having almost 40% equity.


So with QQ I fear only one draw, really. With AA or AQ I fear all of them, so my line here just wouldn't be viable, my hand is not strong enough to support it. Maybe it still is better to just shove here with QQ like I would with AA, but I'm not really convinced it is.

Pre is obviously fine if not a bit large. No one will say go larger.

Yes, I like betting small on the flop and shoving ALL turns yourself.

The reason a smaller flop bet is good is that anyone with a decent drawing hand is going to draw no matter what you do. You could shove the flop or bet flop small/shove turn, and those hands will always stick around no matter what happens. So we should be pretty indifferent to whether we bet small or large vs. club draws and straight draws. A flop bet is basically the same as an all-in bet against any hand with decent equity.

Since we won't ever "deny" anyone drawing odds or force anyone to make a really big mistake or a bad fold with a made or drawing hand given the SPR, we should focus on the other hands that might make a very weak peel... hands like a lower pair + backdoor draw, a gut shot + backdoor draw, a backdoor nut flush draw + over card, etc.

A shove will easily fold out most of those hands most of the time. Will 6c5d peel a small flop bet? Maybe. Will it peel a shove? Never imo. How about a hand like 8c8d. There's a chance this hand peels a very small flop bet with just 8% equity.

So yes, I think 55-60 is the perfect bet sizing on the flop and yes, you have to shove ALL turns. That gives you continued value against any draws or worse made hands. And even if a club turns, a lot of straight draws include one club, V's won't always have a flush, and you're basically always getting the imputed odds to continue with your hand on the river even if villain does shows you a flush. So again, you shove ALL turns.

Your logic isn't totally off base if you know your facing multiple bad opponents. Against fish that will get pot committed with marginal and nearly dead draws, it can work. If the additional people coming in are adding more money to the pot then they are taking out of your equity, then your EV goes up.

This sort of thinking won't work against good or even decent ones because they won't stick around with marginal draws unless actually priced in and won't get suckered into being pot committed with weak made ones.

I still think a better bet size preflop and a shove on the flop is the highest EV line. This sort of FPS adds a lot of variance to your game for at best a marginal increase in EV.

The ability to boat up is pretty substantial. If someone turns a flush, we're a 4:1 dog to improve on the river. Sure beats around 0% equity with AA. In fact, the ability to boat up helps support a plan that involves a smaller flop bet and turn shove since we're always priced in anyway, and if the two-step play can be more +EV, then it's a pretty straightforward exercise.

Another difference is that with say KK+, people have SO much worse Qx that gives us value, and the turn can be a scare card to Qx. So I would be more much inclined to shove the flop with, say, AA, because people will call with numerous combos of Qx (AQ, KQ, QJ, QT = 39 top pair combos), but too many of those hands would not continue on around 50% of turn cards.

When we hold QQ, of course those combos drop by ~60% to 16.

This is a reason to bet small on the flop. Let's encourage people to peel very light with the weaker pair / gut shot / backdoor equity hands, etc. They do love to win a big pot, and they may take a flyer for 55-60 with < 10% equity.

Well, it's not FPS if it is more +EV.

Also, we're playing 1/2, so I expect a lot of (relatively) equity-light flop calls.

By the way, that the turn was the 6d is of course 100% irrelevant and shouldn't upset us at all. If we had shoved the flop, the same people for whom that card might complete a draw would have called the flop. The benefit of the smaller flop bet is that we might also get calls from others.

These were my initial doubts when thinking back over the hand, and even during the hand. I felt like I was taking a very high variance line for the chance to win a huge pot, but the more I think about it the less I think that it's actually any higher variance that just shoving and getting called anyway by the strongest draw/s at the table. A backdoor flush draw is basically dead money since any flush will be ahead of me on the turn, I may let in a gutshot that will get there a small % of the time, but aside from that the variance here is basically the same.

75% HU vs. flush draw
66% vs. flush draw + gutshot
BACK TO 75% vs. flush draw + gutshot + backdoor flush w/ a pair

I think this is a pretty high variance spot no matter what; I'd say it's a pretty high variance table. I don't think shoving the flop is changing much.

EDIT: I still think the real risk is only getting called in 1 spot by a flush draw, seeing the flush hit the turn, and then not being able to get away from the hand. If that happens I just gave someone odds to draw, and don't have odds to justify continuing unless I think I could still be ahead.