Me: Mid 20's white guy MP sitting ~350bb I think people view me as a solid player, but I have been 3 betting a good bit as this table has been very limp-cally so maybe I look loose
villain: Black dude probably 30ish walked up to the table reeking of weed, bought in for 100$, but hasn't been as spewey/fishy as I expected has run it up to about 400$.

The action
1 limp I look down at AJdd in about the lojack and raise it to 12, villain calls limper calls.

Flop: Q99ddh
limper checks I bet 25 button calls limper folds

Turn: Js
I check button bets 40 and I call

River: Qc
Hero ?

I generally try and steer clear of bluffing in 1/2, but in this scenario I think its borderline faceup that hes got either J9 a random 9 or KT and it looks a lot like I have a Q imo. We have some SDV with the jack but I think its really unlikely were good here with just the jack unless he was playing diamonds really strange. Should we pull the trigger here? and what bet sizing should we be looking at? Something small that looks like were trying to get the 9 to call or something polarizing.

Couple thoughts.
I assume V is button?
Try to add pot sizes in posts as it makes it easier for people to read and more likely to respond. If my maths is right.

Flop(36)
Turn(86)
River(166)

Why can't V have a Q?
Ton of bad rivers for a 9 on that turn that make a straight/flush.
Board is quite wet, I would have expected V to have bet a bit bigger on the turn with just a 9 or maybe even raise the flop. This is all very villain dependent.
You note he has not been very spewey. People don't like to fold boats so I don't know that V is folding a 9 often, if you bet it needs to be a good size.If you bet 80 or so not so sure V will fold a 9. A bluff is really targeting a straight, which is a really small part of his range.

I prob just check, especially if V is not likely to barrel as a bluff.

Yes he is the button.

My general thinking is that he isn't great at bet sizing like a lot of the Recish players at 1/2. 40$ was the biggest he bet in 3 hours of sitting at the table with him. I honestly think that he believed he was bombing the turn and I thought so in the moment too. That being said I didn't think think he would bet the turn with a queen just because of how much is out there.

+1 for checking back.

Ok then it becomes a math problem, breaking down his range and your impression of this villain. He needs to fold 33% of the time to a half pot bet, 43% to a 3/4 pot bet and 50% to a pot bet for your river bet to be profitable.

Some villains at 1/2 just don't like to fold boats, even underfills. Last night on an AAAJ7 board i saw 99 call flop, turn and then a $50 2/3 pot river bet and V had A8, his hand on the river is a bluff catcher but he pretty quickly called the river bet. The V with 99 was not a spewey player and the V with quads had literally sat down 2 hands earlier so wasn't some crazy lag. Not exactly the same hand/situation but not far off either.

Surely it's possible it can be a good bluff spot but i find at 1/2, as you noted, trying to bluff people off strong absolute/relative hands isn't something i'm trying to do.

You're probably right. Against a better player do you think this is a better play?

raise more pre, check fold river, you maybe shouldve foldwd the turn.
This is a spot where when you have the Q you ship and get spaz calls all the time from a 9, villans put their hands as absolute value, and its a FH, he isnt foding very often.

hopefully he has JT and checks back.

Folding the turn seems quite poor to me given the chances that we are good now and that we can improve when behind.

Sometimes you can just read the title of a thread and know the answer.

No. You are targeting specifically KT, he's never ever folding a 9.


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He called flop bet turn. He doesnt have FD or low PP or he wouldve checked back, so he has Qx, JT, or 9x. If we include him calling you with gutshots then KJ, KT, T8 will not make you happier. unless he floated you with complete air, the only thing you are ahead of is JT, and that has 11 outs +4 to chop, and you have 2-5 outs against everything else. This is a textbook way ahead/way behind situation.

If you want to dissgree with someone, fine, put him on a range.

I have no idea how can you automatically assume villian can't have a pocket pair nor will not bet a draw without a solid read.

I'm also guessing you must have read the hand wrong to come up with that number of outs when we are behind.

Grunching:

Pre: Fine.

Flop: Bet less, $18- $20. Keep the smaller FD's in.

Turn: Check/Call is good. You are behind, but V undersized the bet.

River: Check/Fold. Everything that called the flop and bet the turn has you beat. (Assuming weak FD's would have taken free card on turn.)

FWIW, this description of Villain has always been EXTREMELY tight (and usually passive) in my experience. Never spewy.

Really? Interesting. I'm fairly new to live poker but the smell and the fact that he bought in for 100$ had me thinking he was going to be one of the weaker players but he was way more solid than expected.


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I ended up betting 70 and villain tanked for about 10 seconds before calling with KTo


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And I realize that calling down with a straight on that board isn't the best decision making on his part but that was probably the only off decision I saw from him


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